CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Greedo punched first]

CA-GOV and Insurance Commissioner runoffs are both D vs. R.

Technically Insurance Commissioner is D vs NPP, but Poizner used to be a Republican (and indeed held the office as a Republican from 2007 to 2011). My friend suggested that "former" Republicans will change to NPP to get a boost based on this result. We'll see how it goes for Poizner in the fall, but he could win it.

Poizner is a de facto Republican, just like Angus King is a de facto Democrat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004256740672724992

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004256740672724992

Where did all the chicken littles go?

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004258270058512384

Katie Hill is future statewide candidate potential, it's obviously very early but I'd love to see her take over Feinstein's Senate seat in 2024.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004256740672724992

Where did all the chicken littles go?

I will now accept my accolades.

Late ballots in mail in states almost always skew Democratic, so if they're not locked out even now I doubt they will be once all is said and done.

And the pundit wet dreams will finally cease.

And counting still isn't anywhere near finished. Our resident clowns, like always, have egg on their face.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

CA-GOV and Insurance Commissioner runoffs are both D vs. R.

Technically Insurance Commissioner is D vs NPP, but Poizner used to be a Republican (and indeed held the office as a Republican from 2007 to 2011). My friend suggested that "former" Republicans will change to NPP to get a boost based on this result. We'll see how it goes for Poizner in the fall, but he could win it.

Poizner is a de facto Republican, just like Angus King is a de facto Democrat.

Oh, absolutely. With the Republican name being mud in CA, more might choose to shed the label in favor of NPP despite still being conservatives.

Also, Patrick Little is sitting at 1.4% When all the results are tallied, we'll need to see which county is the most racist.

[Jeppe]

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

Pretty good, Dems avoided any lock-outs and seems like they'll get their preferred candidates for most districts. Katie Hill leading Bryan Caforio in CA-25, Gil Cisneros with Young Kim in the run-off in CA-39, Harley Rouda in 2nd in CA-48, and Mike Levin in 2nd in CA-49. Katie Porter in CA-45 is probably a bit weaker than her opponent Dave Min, but it's the toughest OC seat anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Still looks like a wipeout for the Republicans in November, all things considered ...

[Virginiá]

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

Not to mention that Democrats have a few state Senate seat prospects in November, if I recall. I don't have the seat #s on hand right now but I think at least one of them is a bigly Clinton district, so Democrats could be back with a supermajority as soon as January 2019. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get up to or more than 60 Assembly seats as well.

Newman is a shame, but Democrats need to be more careful about taxes - especially the gas tax, which they already have inflated beyond the national average for a number of voluntary reasons (they chose environment over cheaper gas).

[Greedo punched first]

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

Not to mention that Democrats have a few state Senate seat prospects in November, if I recall. I don't have the seat #s on hand right now but I think at least one of them is a bigly Clinton district, so Democrats could be back with a supermajority as soon as January 2019. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get up to or more than 60 Assembly seats as well.

Newman is a shame, but Democrats need to be more careful about taxes - especially the gas tax, which they already have inflated beyond the national average for a number of voluntary reasons (they chose environment over cheaper gas).

I blame Steve Glazer. He’s the jackass that sits in a 64% Clinton seat that voted no on that plan, forcing Newman to be one of the 27 yes votes for it.

But oh well. I highly doubt Ling Ling Chang will be able to hold SD-29 in a Presidential year like 2020 with that seat getting bluer by the week. And yeah, SD-12 is an open Clinton +21 seat that Anna Caballero should be slightly favored in. SD-14 and SD-36 look kinda promising after seeing the results tonight. Doesn’t look like Janet Nguyen is going anywhere.

Nguyen is still very popular, especially in the Vietnamese-American community. Josh Lowenthal is in first for AD-72, but Republicans as a whole are getting a large majority of the vote. These seats are starting to look less promising for Democrats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004264926612000768

[Virginiá]

I kind of wish they would just get rid of recalls except for cases of gross impropriety and other things recalls were traditionally meant for. The gas tax is an issue that could have waited until the next election. Something that deserves a quicker response is Newman getting arrested or involved in some crazy sick stuff. But this recall, just like Nevada's recalls, is just Republicans trying to repeat an election they recently lost.

Oh well! Still, interesting night nonetheless.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004266009673519104

[YE]

So looking at the House results for the first time in hours, I'm pretty pleased.

My boy Levin made it to the runoff. Was sure it was gonna be Applegate.

Rouda up in CA-48.

Campa-Najjar so far looking like he'll make the runoff in CA-50.

Katie Porter and Katie Hill made the runoff.

Gil Cisernos also likely to make it in the CA-39.

Honestly aside from IA-03, MT-AL, and IA-GOV this was a great night for progressives.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004266009673519104

Good riddance to Jacobs. She should’ve ran for one of the R-held state legislative seats there first if she wanted to buy a seat with her grandpa’s money

So many money pissed away by wealthy self-funders this cycle.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004266009673519104

Good riddance to Jacobs. She should’ve ran for one of the R-held state legislative seats there first if she wanted to buy a seat with her grandpa’s money

Seeing these trashy self funders flame out in favor of more progressive options so far this cycle has been beautiful.

[Greedo punched first]

It looks like Berniecrats Thorburn and Applegate have been major duds. Justice Democrats and Our Revolution candidates haven't done well.

[henster]

CA10 now the biggest chance for a lockout.

[Greedo punched first]

100% reporting for Imperial County, CA. Feinstein 29, de Leon 15. De Leon severely underperformed in Imperial. Expect him to lose the runoff in a landslide.

[Jeppe]

100% reporting for Imperial County, CA. Feinstein 29, de Leon 15. De Leon severely underperformed in Imperial. Expect him to lose the runoff in a landslide.

I wonder if he'll crack 30% in the general.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It looks like Berniecrats Thorburn and Applegate have been major duds. Justice Democrats and Our Revolution candidates haven't done well.

D' Allesandro is the biggest proof yet that Sanders's endorsement is worth less than a bucket of warm piss.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004256740672724992

Where did all the chicken littles go?

I will now accept my accolades.

Late ballots in mail in states almost always skew Democratic, so if they're not locked out even now I doubt they will be once all is said and done.

And the pundit wet dreams will finally cease.

And counting still isn't anywhere near finished. Our resident clowns, like always, have egg on their face.

Baugh humbug.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004266009673519104

Good riddance to Jacobs. She should’ve ran for one of the R-held state legislative seats there first if she wanted to buy a seat with her grandpa’s money

So many money pissed away by wealthy self-funders this cycle.

Josh Harder in California 10 and Gil Cisneros in California 39 probably largely self funded.

[Mr. Smith]

100% reporting for Imperial County, CA. Feinstein 29, de Leon 15. De Leon severely underperformed in Imperial. Expect him to lose the runoff in a landslide.

I wonder if he'll crack 30% in the general.

If Loretta Sanchez and her style could, I don't see why De Leon can't, especially not if Feinstein triangulates as usual.

After all, De Leon managed to nearly get the endorsement over her, while Kamala Harris solidly won the same thing two years ago.