California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Zedonathin2020]

Election Twitter is in a state of complete anarchy right now over the whole Butler appointment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs campaign on the Southern Strategy anyways and Trump made this the center piece of the Obama Birther movement along with Palin and Rev Wright in 2008, the D party is the blk and Brown party

[Atlas Force]

I wonder if her being the President of EMILY’s List makes it less likely she runs, since she might just want to go back to a cushy behind-the-scenes role when her 13 months are up.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1708689536967119257

[Oryxslayer]

I will say, if I was in her shoes, I wouldn't run in the general election.  Mostly cause California is one of if not the most expensive state in the nation when campaigning statewide. She is unknown to 95% of residents, and somehow you need to both introduce and convince several million to choose you over the other Dems. And the other Dems have sizable war chests and built in brands.

And you have a immediatly established residency issue. It's the hot new thing, every Senate seat needs someone running from out of state now. Carpetbagging matters less in the Southwest than in the Midwest, one sees significantly more arrivals from out of state than the other. But when your name recognition is zilch, immediately entering a race with such an issue seems suicidal.  That's just asking the established candidate with millions in their warchests to make the one thing people know about you is that you are not a real Californian and don't understand Californian issues.

Obviously,  all this could be solved with a LOT of money. But Emily's List should and does have bigger and established priorities in competitive districts. Flushing a large chunk of their warchest in safe D California when 2/3 potential successors are also women seems unwise. Far more sounder to use the new position to increase intake and outflow to the necessary candidates,  a number of whom are in SoCal swing seats.




But I'm me and Butler's herself.  She can do what she thinks to be her prerogative. Maybe she "runs" but actually doesn't run and just uses the campaign for fundraising.  We'll all know in 18 hours max.

But her running would knock Lee out of viability. She would divide at best, or claim in its entirely at worst, the support of African American voters outside of the East Bay. That would remove one of the few legs of Lee's coalition, in a race where any support is necessary versus hypothetically 3 other rivals.  She would take support from Porter and Schiff as well, but they are in a better position to survive such losses, according to polling. Would be more likely if Newsom had a history of being publically spiteful.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

So Newsom endears himself to Labor, Women, and the LGBT probably ending slightly disfavored to even with black voters, and pissing of progressives and labor.

We’ll see how this plays out.

This progressive is perfectly happy.

[Utah Neolib]

So Newsom endears himself to Labor, Women, and the LGBT probably ending slightly disfavored to even with black voters, and pissing of progressives and labor.

We’ll see how this plays out.

How is he endearing himself to labor and pissing them off at the same time?

[Zedonathin2020]

Official Newsom announcement:

https://twitter.com/gavinnewsom/status/1708699205206933871?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So Newsom endears himself to Labor, Women, and the LGBT probably ending slightly disfavored to even with black voters, and pissing of progressives and labor.

We’ll see how this plays out.

How is he endearing himself to labor and pissing them off at the same time?

Typo :/

[Ferguson97]

Lol I was offline for most of the day and missed this drama.

My only major thoughts are that it was always clear to me that he can't force his appointment to be a caretaker if they don't want to be one, and it would have been wrong of Newsom to appoint a current primary candidate, since they'd gain a literal incumbency advantage.

Is that contradictory? /shrug/

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

To be very honest, People were kinda grossly overestimating the requirments that the Apointee needed. He could have found a NGO leader or an academic with a solid record of being a partisan democrat, and some significant achievement to appoint.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Pretty deftly handled by Newsom. I’m impressed.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Endorsement space:

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah the more I hear the more I don't like it, I would take Schiff over her at this point

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I honestly hope Barbara Lee wins the race. Schiff is too obssessed with Trump and Porter is an annoying karen. Lee was also against giving Bush war powers after 9/11 and voted against the Patriot act.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

To be very honest, People were kinda grossly overestimating the requirments that the Apointee needed. He could have found a NGO leader or an academic with a solid record of being a partisan democrat, and some significant achievement to appoint.

He certainly could have found someone who is both more qualified and more of a Californian than his pick and who doesn't seem to have endorsed in the race. Like Leondra Kruger.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, that's a choice that was completely off my radar. But Newsome handled this pretty well and has yet proven again he's a force people should keep watching.

The interesting question now is whether Butler will actually run. I could imagine she ends up doing so. Then I might reconsider my support for Schiff. Perhaps other candidates would even start dropping out. Schiff and Porter still can go back running for their House seats again. We'll see.

[Bojack Horseman]

The fact that he chose someone so off the radar and who wasn’t already a candidate makes me think he was thinking the same thing I was: appoint someone who would promise not to run in the general election so they can stay in Washingotn and focus on the job due to the Democrats’ slim Senate majority. If she was spending all her time back in California campaigning for the seat, then we’re right back where we were when Feinstein was gone all the time and the Republicans could hold up judicial nominations.

[wbrocks67]

Barbara Lee and her allies really played themselves with this one. Their PR campaign to bully Newsom was clearly misguided.

[Holmes]

Huh that’s cool:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1708671789268947447

An endorsement from Yashar Ali isn’t the biggest vote of confidence.

[coloradocowboi]

So Newsom endears himself to Labor, Women, and the LGBT probably ending slightly disfavored to even with black voters, and pissing of progressives and labor.

We’ll see how this plays out.

This progressive is perfectly happy.

Most in the state aren’t. But they already hated Newsom.

At the end of the day, anybody progressive and intelligent will see through this ruse. He appointed a corporate lobbyist and carpetbagger so he could let Black women have the “representation” he thinks they deserve for a few months. The only people benefiting from this appointment are Gavin Newsom and the corporate interests that have propped up his career.

Barbara Lee and her allies really played themselves with this one. Their PR campaign to bully Newsom was clearly misguided.

This is straight up absurd. How do you bully your own governor? Maybe that word means something completely divorced from its real definition to you.

At any rate, pointing out the hypocrisy of claiming to value Black women’s political representation while appointing one only as a caretaker isn’t bullying so much as stating the obvious. This is giving me Hillary 2016 level white self-victimization. “Omg the mean Black people want more than a year of political representation”! How dare they

[Zedonathin2020]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

[Sir Mohamed]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

Yup. I'm not even convinced she would have won with Newsom making the appointment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

Yup. I'm not even convinced she would have won with Newsom making the appointment.

This appointment isn't about race, it's about age, it takes away the argument that Rs have about Biden being too old, and Trump is 77 just like Lee, Newsom was very aware of the R complaining about Biden ages

It will be gradually show up in the polls positive for Biden

They did the Rs the samething with LBJ and he was too old but he had Heart problems and smoked like my Grandma did and Died and the Rs nominated Ronald Reagan

Any D would win it's a runoff

[Oryxslayer]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

Like I have said earlier in the thread, her campaign gives the vibes (at least personally) of someone for whom winning would just be a surprising bonus. No offense to anyone voting for her, in fact, keep voting for her. That's your call. The point to me though seems to be retirement with dignity. Which itself is not an uncommon motivator. As long as a losing candidate doesn't get blown out, they still have the time and money to make their appeal. That raises awareness to one's issues, and could change the narrative on certain things the winning candidates have to follow. It also will build a contact list for those who follow in your footsteps.