Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Devils30]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Not a big crossover from 2020 with Youngkin not really winning over Biden supporters. I think this will be over 6% in the end.

[wbrocks67]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

And looks like the main culprit is Biden voters saying "not sure". You have 1% of Trump voters say not sure on approval, but 11% of Biden voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Neutral Environment in the Senate given that tied WI tied poll and if anyone thinks it's an R wave or Blue Wave are putting ROSE COLORED GLASSES ON

It's always a 304 map D's aren't winning TX, FL or NC, NATE SILVER SAYS SONON YOU TUBE VOICE, IT WAS UN 2016/2018, 2020, WE JUST HAD BETTER CHANCES IN HOUSE I. 2018 DUE TO R RETIREMENTS

We don't know what happens in House but a Govt shutdown isn't good for Speakership, Pelosi not McConnell gets blamed

[wbrocks67]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

Selzer has of course proven to be the gold standard, but for this to be true, we'd likely be looking at about a Biden -20 approval nationally, give or take.

[Mr.Phips]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

Selzer has of course proven to be the gold standard, but for this to be true, we'd likely be looking at about a Biden -20 approval nationally, give or take.

Iowa is the exact type of state (heavily white and not as many college educated voters) where you would expect to see Biden’s approval drop much more than nationally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Govt shutdown looming over DEBT CEILING IS GGONNA COST DS THE H

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Sep. 17-20, 1100 adults including 991 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

RV:

Approve 51 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

[MT Treasurer]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Not a big crossover from 2020 with Youngkin not really winning over Biden supporters. I think this will be over 6% in the end.

Probably. Incumbents typically gain about 6% from governing or legislating to campaigning.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny.

But, BUT, BUT, INDY REPUBLICAN, you told us the news that Abby Fink was gonna win🤔🤔🤔

The RED WALL EXCEPT FOR OH AND NC WHERE JACKSON AND RYAN CAN STILL WIN ARE DONE, THEY'RE BLUE DOGS OR MODERATES WE STILL CAN WIN 54/46  SENATE SEAT PLUS 222/216 D H seats AND SUPPORTS STATEHOOD

BEASLEY SHOULD NOT BE ENDORSEMENT, SHE SUPPORTERS FILLIBUSTER🦷

[Person Man]

It would be crazy if 24 and 28 had a situation where Democrats won because of a rebalance in efficiency caused by states like Ohio, Iowa, maybe Florida, and perhaps a couple of others giving Republicans the same type of margins they get in the Deep South. Let’s see say this takes what would of been a 4% victory for the Democrats and turns it into a 1% victory for them as they limp across the finish line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and comfortably win Minnesota, New Hampshire and perhaps Arizona and Georgia by 2%.

[Devils30]

It would be crazy if 24 and 28 had a situation where Democrats won because of a rebalance in efficiency caused by states like Ohio, Iowa, maybe Florida, and perhaps a couple of others giving Republicans the same type of margins they get in the Deep South. Let’s see say this takes what would of been a 4% victory for the Democrats and turns it into a 1% victory for them as they limp across the finish line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and comfortably win Minnesota, New Hampshire and perhaps Arizona and Georgia by 2%.

People are underestimating how many competitive states we might have over the next decade. It is quite a few. You can make a case for all of AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, NH, ME, MN, NC, TX, FL, GA to be competitive in a given election. The trends of urban Hispanics in the sunbelt might be different than their rural counterparts, Rs could gain even more in the rural midwest, pushing WI, PA to clearly lean R. Dems could benefit from demographics pushing GA out of reach and making NC a tipping point state rather than right leaning. We really just don't know what will happen.

[Matty]

If biden is truly at 31% in iowa, he is also deeply underwater in wisconsin and michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 14 mnths til the Election abd Users are Dooming again, lol, Covid cases are going down, Biden only has to be at 50% or above on Election night to avoid a 2010 scenario not 14 mnths before

We didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we werent expected to gain the H, it was projected that we gain 10/15 seats, so stop Panicking a yr before the Election, it's not time to vote in Midterms yet

But, Newsom won, he had Endorsements lined up for the LA Mayor election already next yr 2022

[Ferguson97]

According to the The Detroit news Biden’s approval in Michigan is 39/53. If those numbers are anywhere accurate that is horrific for Michigan.

Yeah, I don't believe that.

[wbrocks67]

According to the The Detroit news Biden’s approval in Michigan is 39/53. If those numbers are anywhere accurate that is horrific for Michigan.

Yeah, I don't believe that.

Craig (R)'s own internal in Michigan has Biden at 48/51, so yeah

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

And looks like the main culprit is Biden voters saying "not sure". You have 1% of Trump voters say not sure on approval, but 11% of Biden voters.

It's more proof that as much as many of us defend Biden, we are not a cult and have standards. The downside to that though is that it's almost another example of us unilaterally disarming. Trump got away with so much because his base was stubborn and devout. Biden has to tread more carefully because Democrats and others who voted for Biden don't operate that way mentally. We probably have to though to balance out the over-represented white, rural Trump cabal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If PPP poll has TMac ahead he's gonna win

[S019]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Honestly, if it is actually this bad, Miller or Fitzgerald could absolutely go down. It's just remarkable how quickly this state shifted to safe R, though 60% disapprove is still a bit high for the state atm imo, Biden is probably down at least 10 nationally, if these are the IA numbers

[MR DARK BRANDON]

HarrisX (sept 8-9);

Approve; 55%
Disapprove; 45%

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1440443857112494081

[kwabbit]

The -31 for Biden in Iowa Selzer is too extreme to be believed, but Selzer is absolutely a poll that you should give credence. If Biden's at -31 in Iowa, or anything close to it, say -25, then he's probably quite unpopular in the Midwest, not around even like national polls would suggest. Midwest polling has been spectacularly bad since 2016, but Selzer has been a lone positive. It's frankly the only poll in the Midwest that can be trusted, and one -31 poll in Iowa tells us way more about Wisconsin then 10 polls of Wisconsin itself from other pollsters.

[Mr.Phips]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Honestly, if it is actually this bad, Miller or Fitzgerald could absolutely go down. It's just remarkable how quickly this state shifted to safe R, though 60% disapprove is still a bit high for the state atm imo, Biden is probably down at least 10 nationally, if these are the IA numbers

Iowa will likely be voting like Missouri in 2022 and 2024.

[Annatar]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

[Devils30]

The -31 for Biden in Iowa Selzer is too extreme to be believed, but Selzer is absolutely a poll that you should give credence. If Biden's at -31 in Iowa, or anything close to it, say -25, then he's probably quite unpopular in the Midwest, not around even like national polls would suggest. Midwest polling has been spectacularly bad since 2016, but Selzer has been a lone positive. It's frankly the only poll in the Midwest that can be trusted, and one -31 poll in Iowa tells us way more about Wisconsin then 10 polls of Wisconsin itself from other pollsters.

People are underrating the possibility of Ds keeping the House because of strong suburban showings in a D+2 type of year while they potentially lose PA, WI and maybe one like NH. D House/R senate doesn't seem too likely but it is definitely possible and even another 50-50 Senate guarantees an R takeover in 2024.

[Matty]

HarrisX (sept 8-9);

Approve; 55%
Disapprove; 45%

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1440443857112494081

Lmao

I’m emailing these pollsters do ask them what their deal is