TX - University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News: Trump +2%

[tagimaucia]

The 538 number is not a state polling average, it’s a highly modeled projection that involves demographics and economic numbers and national polls etc.  To be fair, RCP probably isn’t a good baseline either, especially this year when they’re getting progressively more cherry-picky and ridiculous about their poll inclusion and exclusion choices.

Edit: That said, it looks like RCP excluded some polls that if they were included would have put the average at just about what the result was, so I guess you’re right. A great example of why not to trust RCP, I should have known better.  I’m pretty sure Beto did actually over perform his polls though.

[President Johnson]

Pure tossup, but Trump gaing six from latest poll seems a bit too much.

[ProudModerate2]

Continues to force trump to spend time, resources and money here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Continues to force trump to spend time, resources and money here.

It shouldn't. The Trump campaign should be spending minimal resources outside tipping point states (I really doubt DJT cares much about Senate control).

[Devils30]

The problem is its unlikely Biden wins Latino heavy Texas and doesn't get at least enough of a boost to win Florida. Same does with suburban Austin, Houston, Dallas voters...hard to see Biden not being able to flip PA, MI with this trend happening in TX.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

66% white when it was 57% white in 2016....lol

Here's a good breakdown:

https://leantossup.ca/texas-is-really-looking-good-for-biden/

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The problem is its unlikely Biden wins Latino heavy Texas and doesn't get at least enough of a boost to win Florida. Same does with suburban Austin, Houston, Dallas voters...hard to see Biden not being able to flip PA, MI with this trend happening in TX.

Texas Latinos =/= Florida Latinos. Latinos in TX are mostly Mexican-Americans who usually vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Latinos in FL are more varied (Cubans, Colombians, Puerto Ricans, etc). Cuban-Americans & Colombian-Americans lean towards Republicans and Puerto Ricans typically lean towards Democrats.

[ultraviolet]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):

*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.

Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.

This is not a polling average, it’s a vote share model based on many factors.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The 538 number is not a state polling average, it’s a highly modeled projection that involves demographics and economic numbers and national polls etc.  To be fair, RCP probably isn’t a good baseline either, especially this year when they’re getting progressively more cherry-picky and ridiculous about their poll inclusion and exclusion choices.

Edit: That said, it looks like RCP excluded some polls that if they were included would have put the average at just about what the result was, so I guess you’re right. A great example of why not to trust RCP, I should have known better.  I’m pretty sure Beto did actually over perform his polls though.

RCP seems to be repeating that mistake in Texas this year too, excluding most polls showing Biden leading here, like PPP and DFP

[ExSky]

Only +2 and down in the RV screen? after the RNC. Ruh roh

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Continues to force trump to spend time, resources and money here.

That remains to be seen

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1301538064414711808

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tell me again how Biden is gonna do worse than Beto?

We've gotten more Texas polls within the MoE than outside this year. The only thing preventing folks from thinking Texas will be one of the closest states is preconceived notions that apparently don't require explanation.

"It's just not ready and it won't flip. It just won't"

[BaldEagle1991]

The problem is its unlikely Biden wins Latino heavy Texas and doesn't get at least enough of a boost to win Florida. Same does with suburban Austin, Houston, Dallas voters...hard to see Biden not being able to flip PA, MI with this trend happening in TX.

Texas Latinos =/= Florida Latinos. Latinos in TX are mostly Mexican-Americans who usually vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Latinos in FL are more varied (Cubans, Colombians, Puerto Ricans, etc). Cuban-Americans & Colombian-Americans lean towards Republicans and Puerto Ricans typically lean towards Democrats.

You're mostly right.

However there's a large % of Evangelical Protestant Latinos in Texas also I'd say 25%-50% of Texas Latinos are "mixed" with Anglo.

[WD]

Tell me again how Biden is gonna do worse than Beto?

We've gotten more Texas polls within the MoE than outside this year. The only thing preventing folks from thinking Texas will be one of the closest states is preconceived notions that apparently don't require explanation.

"It's just not ready and it won't flip. It just won't"

If 40+ polls showing that a state where Republicans do not tend to underpoll is highly competitive (and has been highly competitive since way before the pandemic) aren’t going to convince people that it’s actually competitive, well, nothing will.

Even if Biden wins the state, people will just say: “Its a fluke!” “IN-2008 Redux” “ 2020 was a D+8 year” “ The suburbs will go back to the GOP post Trump!”

[The Mikado]

Tell me again how Biden is gonna do worse than Beto?

We've gotten more Texas polls within the MoE than outside this year. The only thing preventing folks from thinking Texas will be one of the closest states is preconceived notions that apparently don't require explanation.

"It's just not ready and it won't flip. It just won't"

If 40+ polls showing that a state where Republicans do not tend to underpoll is highly competitive (and has been highly competitive since way before the pandemic) aren’t going to convince people that it’s actually competitive, well, nothing will.

Even if Biden wins the state, people will just say: “Its a fluke!” “IN-2008 Redux” “ 2020 was a D+8 year” “ The suburbs will go back to the GOP post Trump!”

I mean, if Biden wins nationally by 8 and wins TX by 0.5, I'd expect the GOP to be able to carry Texas by a healthy (if not wide) margin in 2024 if the race is at all close nationally.

[Badger]

Pure tossup, but Trump gaing six from latest poll seems a bit too much.

[NOVA Green]

Pure tossup, but Trump gaing six from latest poll seems a bit too much.

Amazing how many Atlas DEM posters are trippin' and flippin' bcs of one poll...

Lived down the road from H-Town off of SH-249 not to far North of FM-1960...

Cy-Fair is gonna flip hard DEM in 2020...

NW Harris County looks like it might well go Biden 2020, which is the most Republican part of the County left...

The Woodlands will be interesting, and although I suspect it will vote Trump '20, Biden will likely be out-performing any DEM PRES Candidate for Decades.

Not gonna even mess with the math and map of Metro DFW, let alone Metro SA, Austin, & El Paso...

Rich 'Pubs from 'Burbs that wanna roll down fat lines of blow in TX, frat boys elsewhere that wanna represent, gotta another thing coming when they roll up the "Jackson" passed around to snort a line off of the mirror...

TX Anglo Youth going fast Socal Anglo Youth from a few decades back...

Tejas is still a Tossup at this point in PRES GE 2020, and even potentially a Tilt Biden GE PRES State.