When Do Democrats Get the House Back?

[Mr.Phips]

2018, under the next GOP President. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think the most likely possibility is a year when Dems are riding high with a coalition different from the Obama coalition so it reshuffles the gerrymandering and opens up new possibilities. For example, if the Republicans make a run at Medicare under Paul Ryan and we have a senior-friendly Dem at the top of the ticket, that opens up districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin we'd otherwise lose with the Obama base vote being determinative. Meanwhile, the Dem districts in those states and elsewhere will be uncompetitive for Republicans.

Republicans have packed Dems in  PA, OH, MI, and WI so tightly that there is not a single Dem seat they would have a chance at picking up in any of those states, even in a 2010 environment. 

[Mr.Phips]

probably in the next GOP presidency midterm.

I used to think that, but I don't know anymore.  When the bottom fell out for Bush, he had ~30% approval.  A GOP president with average 50/50 approval or even 45% approval may not put enough of those R+3-4 seats in danger.  By contrast, a Democratic president even at 50/50 approval would be in danger of losing a House majority because a solid majority of districts would narrowly disapprove.

I actually think the best bet pre-2022 is riding the coattails of a D president with a solid 10% PV win.

If that's the case, then why didnt Democrats lose the House or at least a hell of a lot more seats in 1978 when Carter was below 50%?  Democrats held on to or picked up dozens of seats that year that not only went for Ford in 1976, but did so by double digits. 

[Mr.Phips]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

The suburban PA districts would be ripe for Dem pickups, as well as a few in New York and a couple in Michigan.