2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Nyvin]

Redistricting still won't make this congressional district competitive for GOP | Opinion

The old “Best of Luck to You” vapors are back. According to Republican state lawmakers I have spoken with, when their 2022 redistricting bill is released, it will feature no move, as in none, to make our 3rd Congressional District here in Louisville competitive in next year’s election – or in the next five elections. To use former Sen. Williams’ parlance, a deal has apparently been cut to make the districts of Kentucky’s five incumbent GOP U.S. House members in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th Districts even more impregnable. To accomplish this goal, it is said, the current boundaries of the 3rd District will be left more or less intact.

Kentucky going 5-1 unless something very unusual happens

So KY is going to end up being the one multi-district small state that doesn't go off the deep end.

NE didn't really go off the deep end and I have a feeling KS won't do so either.

IN was pretty tame too,  just shored up IN-5.

The only small/medium sized states that were horrible are Utah and OK so far.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/theRCnews/status/1476337225453420547?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/WLKYMark/status/1476582424821833735?s=20
Seems like we're not getting congressional lines today. Presser going on right now and the speaker claims that no precincts were split. The congressional map is still being worked on, apparently by the state senate, and will be introduced on Tuesday January 4.

[BoiseBoy]

Three redistricting bills (SB2, SB3, SB20) have been introduced in the Senate. SB2 is the state senate map. SB3 is a congressional map. They are not publicly available right now. SB20 is a bill to push back the filing deadline.

[BoiseBoy]

Brief idea of what we will be seeing. KY-03 is not getting cracked.

https://twitter.com/WLKYMark/status/1478424944254070796?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/WLKYMark/status/1476582424821833735?s=20
Seems like we're not getting congressional lines today. Presser going on right now and the speaker claims that no precincts were split. The congressional map is still being worked on, apparently by the state senate, and will be introduced on Tuesday January 4.

What on earth is with those stripes in Lexington?

[Nyvin]

So I'm guessing all they really do is shore up KY-6.

[Gass3268]

So I'm guessing all they really do is shore up KY-6.

Correct

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1478494785556078593?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

So I'm guessing all they really do is shore up KY-6.

Correct

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1478494785556078593?s=20

Weird way to make KY-06 redder, rather than have it go to the south, but ok.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, that KY-01 is godawful. Weird that a map that isn't even a hard gerrymander would do something so ugly.

[Torie]

The KY Pubs seem absolutely terrified of the state's capital. Maybe they mixed it up with Wisconsin's state capital after too a few too many bourbon shots.

[Oryxslayer]

The KY Pubs seem absolutely terrified of the state's capital. Maybe they mixed it up with Wisconsin's state capital after too a few too many bourbon shots.

Perhaps the legislature and their staff desire to be represented by James Comer, or vice versa.

[Brittain33]

That’s ridiculous. Franklin County is 50/50, tiny, and trending nowhere.

[Oryxslayer]

That’s ridiculous. Franklin County is 50/50, tiny, and trending nowhere.

It's the third most Democratic county and votes blue if the race isn't a blowout. Yanking it out and putting in some more GOP bluegrass counties is one way, albeit the weirdest way, to move KY-06 off the map.

[lfromnj]

That’s ridiculous. Franklin County is 50/50, tiny, and trending nowhere.

Yeah but the other counties KY06 picks up are 70/30. The logical move would be to just give it to Massie but this is Maryland tier lol.

[Nyvin]

The whole county portion of KY-6 is about Trump+11.  There's not really anyway right now to get the split counties (Bath and Anderson) but those are obviously solid R areas so it probably brings the district up to something like Trump+12 or Trump+13.   The current district is Trump+9 so they did move it right a good amount.

The Lexington metro overall would keep the district trending D though going by 2016 to 2020.

[Gass3268]

I read somewhere on Twitter (can't find it now) that James Comer has a home in Franklin County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hereby christen this new KY-01 "The Bluegrass Comer Dragon".

[Nyvin]

I hereby christen this new KY-01 "The Bluegrass Comer Dragon".

Looks more like a garden snail.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hereby christen this new KY-01 "The Bluegrass Comer Dragon".

Looks more like a garden snail.

I can see it.
Not entirely sure what the best comparison is. A snake, maybe?

[Tekken_Guy]

The whole county portion of KY-6 is about Trump+11.  There's not really anyway right now to get the split counties (Bath and Anderson) but those are obviously solid R areas so it probably brings the district up to something like Trump+12 or Trump+13.   The current district is Trump+9 so they did move it right a good amount.

The Lexington metro overall would keep the district trending D though going by 2016 to 2020.

I got up to Trump+12 when including all of Bath and Anderson. So I’d put it around Trump+11.5 or so for the actual district. So it’s slightly more Republican than before but not much.

[It’s so Joever]

Lol I’ll take this map, but that Frankfort arm is the stupidest thing I’ve seen this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1478594965504724993?s=20

[Pollster]

Looks like Jim Gray still won this KY-06 by 2 points (down from 4).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not sure why the 1st has to be so ugly. They could easily reconfigure it and the 2nd with both still being Safe R.

As it is that's basically a least change map though. Not really surprising as Kentucky law doesn't really allow for massive sweeping changes and the Legislature didn't bother to repeal it.