Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Skill and Chance]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Nailed on Reeves +5-8.

[GAinDC]

A week ago I would have said Reeves by 3-5 but now I'm not so sure. I think it will be very close, maybe within a point or two

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

[wbrocks67]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Assuming a low turnout election that probably helps Republicans since suburban white women are the highest turnout demographic.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

[7,052,770]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

It probably won't be a similar percentage, because 2019 was before Trump told all of his supporters that voting by mail is evil.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

It probably won't be a similar percentage, because 2019 was before Trump told all of his supporters that voting by mail is evil.

There was also a COVID bounce though, and there might still be a long-term effect by those who gained the habit of voting by mail.

[Skill and Chance]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

It probably won't be a similar percentage, because 2019 was before Trump told all of his supporters that voting by mail is evil.

There was also a COVID bounce though, and there might still be a long-term effect by those who gained the habit of voting by mail.

Unlike most states, MS never expanded VBM (or in-person EV, for that matter) during COVID.

[Roll Roons]

I'm conflicted as to whether this feels like VA 2021 (where the momentum was real, but I needed to see a Youngkin victory to believe it) or SC 2020 (where all the hype totally falls flat).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'm conflicted as to whether this feels like VA 2021 (where the momentum was real, but I needed to see a Youngkin victory to believe it) or SC 2020 (where all the hype totally falls flat).

I wish there was more recent independent polling. I do think this is basically Reeves vs Hood or Hyde-Smith vs Espy, but the state getting 10 points redder post-Dobbs.

[Del Tachi]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters. 

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

The bulk of the non-ED vote in Mississippi is in-person absentee, not VBM.  The last day for in-person absentee voting will be this Saturday, November 5th (this last Saturday is traditionally the biggest day for absentee voting, too.)

As of November 1st, Hinds County (Jackson) was at 80% of its 2019 numbers.  Rankin 59%, Madison 97%, DeSoto 138%, Hancock 53%, Sunflower 223%, etc.  It's very much a mixed bag.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm conflicted as to whether this feels like VA 2021 (where the momentum was real, but I needed to see a Youngkin victory to believe it) or SC 2020 (where all the hype totally falls flat).

The thing is, outside of this forum, I have not seen any momentum for Presley. It doesn't help we haven't had a non-internal quality poll since early October. Whereas in 2021 you could clearly see the momentum change through October. I think Presley has done enough to guarantee it within single digits though.

[Del Tachi]

Maybe too early for this, but these are some county-by-county benchmarks I'd like to see to feel that Presley is on-track for a majority win.

Hinds 81/18
Harrison 57/40
Madison 52/46
Rankin 60/39
DeSoto 54/45
Lee 54/44
Oktibbeha 59/37
Lowndes 52/47
Lafayette 55/44
Forrest 50/49
Washington 73/25

[DrScholl]

Getting to at least 46% is achievable for a Democrat, but it's that last 4-5% that is problematic. If Pressley can push Hinds over 80% then that will help a lot. A combination of Hood and Espy's maps is what he needs, because Espy did better in some places where Hood did worse in (Like Lowndes County, which is a must win).

[Utah Neolib]

Not sure if it's the hopium, but something in this race really seems to be shifting.

https://twitter.com/michbeyer/status/1720219923132072087

Rankin’s county seat is Brandon. Coincidence? I think not.

[OneJ]

Nothing special to say other than I voted absentee this morning. The line wasn't very long though. I might've waited about 45 minutes or so.

On the whole momentum thing, you could pretty much just mark me as "see it to believe it" to see Presley making it very close in the end. I'm thinking Reeves +6 since we haven't really had any polls released recently and we're basically relying on what insiders say + vibes and I'd rather not do that this time around lol.

[The Mikado]

I'm conflicted as to whether this feels like VA 2021 (where the momentum was real, but I needed to see a Youngkin victory to believe it) or SC 2020 (where all the hype totally falls flat).

It could easily be both and be something like Reeves +3: insane overperformance but just not quite enough.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't think it's likely that Presley will win.  I think that Kentucky is in the margin of error.

Cameron does not have to overcome in Kentucky what Presley has to overcome in Mississippi.  Indeed, it's Beshear who has to overcome the Republican settings of Kentucky. 

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't think it's likely that Presley will win.  I think that Kentucky is in the margin of error.

Cameron does not have to overcome in Kentucky what Presley has to overcome in Mississippi.  Indeed, it's Beshear who has to overcome the Republican settings of Kentucky. 

Beshear is way more popular than Reeves, and Cameron a weaker candidate than Presley. That’s like saying Matt Bevin is more likely to win re-election than John Bel Edwards in 2019.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP: Mississippi has a history of voter suppression. Many see signs of change as Black voters reengage.

Long but interesting article.  This is one bit I wasn't previously aware of:

Five Black candidates are running for statewide office, from agriculture commissioner to secretary of state. Each is trying to become the first Black candidate to ever win one of those posts.

[wbrocks67]

So I guess Mason Dixon and Siena are both just ignore this race till the very end. Sigh.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket's final rating: Likely R.

[wbrocks67]

Split Ticket's final rating: Likely R.

Hmm.. we'll see. Feels like they're edging on the side of caution because of the state's lean and no polling, which I get, but I feel like this race is definitely the most up in the air tomorrow. Likely R seems a bit too extreme.