Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

Color me surprised that you support Presley.

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

Color me surprised that you support Presley.

Y’all act like y’all know me; y’all don’t!

[windjammer]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

Color me surprised that you support Presley.

Y’all act like y’all know me; y’all don’t!

I do know you and I'm not surprised because you used to support Mary Landrieu and Travis Childers in the past

[7,052,770]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who would a runoff favor?

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

There has been; there's been numerous articles about it in the last few weeks, Presley has raised more, and Cook even moved it to Lean R. There's been plenty of buzz.

[7,052,770]

Who would a runoff favor?

Presumably Reeves, but honestly who knows. There's no precedent here. Also I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll see a runoff, given how few votes 3rd party candidates get in Mississippi.

[7,052,770]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

There has been; there's been numerous articles about it in the last few weeks, Presley has raised more, and Cook even moved it to Lean R. There's been plenty of buzz.

I mean buzz in the state, not just random national articles. I don't see any billboards or bumper stickers for anybody, very few signs, nobody talking about it in person, and if I didn't watch football, I wouldn't see any ads either (by the way both candidates' ads are super cringy), and if I wasn't someone who follows politics, I might not even know there was an election next Tuesday. You could say that a low attention low turnout race is good for Presley, and maybe it helps, but I suspect a world in which he wins would have a different "feel" to it. Maybe I'm wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's rather amusing that our Mississippi Republican thinks the Democrat has momentum, while our Mississippi Democrat doesn't.

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

Reeves +8 would be a shocking overperformance in that it would mean practically doubling his 2019 margin vs Hood.  I just don't see that, given that Reeves is less popular now than he was four years ago and Republican enthusiam seems pretty low.

However...such an overperformance certainly feels like a distinct possibility given that we must live in the worst possible timeline.  It would mean Presley completely missing his benchmarks with Black voters, which would be an echo of the LA-GOV results.  Presley has always been somewhat more vulnerable than Hood on this front, if only because he doesn't have the same name recognition as being elected statewide four times.

But Presley is also seems to be running a more serious campaign.  Hood's heart was never in the race the same way Presley's has been. 

[Del Tachi]

Who would a runoff favor?

It's hard to say.  Mississippi runoffs are very short (3 weeks) so there's not a lot of time to really change the character of the race.  The GE setup probably benefits Reeves marginally from having more popular Republicans downballot, but a runoff would capture a lot of out-of-state attention and have the effect of nationalizing the race (which hurts Presley.)  It's probably a wash.   

[wbrocks67]

Several GOP consultants share predictions about runoff between Tate Reeves, Brandon Presley
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/28/republican-operatives-governors-race-runoff/

‘They don’t trust Tate Reeves’: Radio host explains why conservative voters are struggling with governor’s race
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/30/tate-reeves-conservative-voter-struggles/

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult's new Q3 ratings are out, and Reeves only has a 46/44 approval rating.

[Del Tachi]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

[wbrocks67]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

I didn't realize there hadn't been a debate yet. That should be interesting

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

Nice article, thanks for posting.

[Del Tachi]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

I didn't realize there hadn't been a debate yet. That should be interesting

Yes, debate is 7 p.m. tomorrow and will air on WAPT-TV (Jackson's ABC affiliate) as well as MPB.  Hoping Presley will make a splash!

[Del Tachi]

Final campaign finance reports submitted, Presley has outraised Reeves by >$5M this cycle
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-outraised-tate-reeves-election/

Donald Trump makes video endorsement of Reeves, no rally scheduled 
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/donald-trump-endorses-tate-reeves-governor/

Absentee balloting 70% of 2019 total, portending possible low turnout
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/01/absentee-balloting-low-mississippi-general-election/

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Presley outraised Reeves 3:1 in October, wild. Trump wading into to do a video endorsement also makes me think the whole "some GOPers not happy with Reeves" thing may be pretty true. This race will be interesting to watch on Tuesday.

[windjammer]

Final campaign finance reports submitted, Presley has outraised Reeves by >$5M this cycle
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-outraised-tate-reeves-election/

Donald Trump makes video endorsement of Reeves, no rally scheduled 
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/donald-trump-endorses-tate-reeves-governor/

Absentee balloting 70% of 2019 total, portending possible low turnout
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/01/absentee-balloting-low-mississippi-general-election/

Would lower turnout favor democrats or republicans?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Final campaign finance reports submitted, Presley has outraised Reeves by >$5M this cycle
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-outraised-tate-reeves-election/

Donald Trump makes video endorsement of Reeves, no rally scheduled 
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/donald-trump-endorses-tate-reeves-governor/

Absentee balloting 70% of 2019 total, portending possible low turnout
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/01/absentee-balloting-low-mississippi-general-election/

Would lower turnout favor democrats or republicans?

Depends on who’s not turning out. If it’s in the Delta, Pressley’s dead. If it’s in the Gulf Shore, Reeves is in hot water.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I sense an upset we will find out Tues

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty great lol-

https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1719876354290676055

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if it's the hopium, but something in this race really seems to be shifting.

https://twitter.com/michbeyer/status/1720219923132072087