"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "
Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs
How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?
Is there something big going on in Bucks County?
Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.
Why isn't this hard to believe? if Biden is actually leading by nine, it makes sense he is putting up Wolf margins in some areas, falling a bit behind Wolf in others, and then failing to match him and just keeping level with Clinton in the reddest regions. That's what the crosstabs suggest.
Fair enough...
Still:
1.) 2018 was an off-year election (50k less Total Voters in Bucks County alone for example), and as we know DEMs turned out generally at higher levels in Northern Suburbs than Republicans.
2.) It is true that 2018 was a bit of an indicator of increasing swings among Suburban Northern voters, even in places which did not experience the +12-15% Obama > HRC swings in '16, suggesting that there remains quite a bit of room for DEMs to expand in this type of terrain.
3.) Sure 3rd Party '16 GE PRES voters will likely tend to vote overwhelmingly Biden in '20, with the exception of perhaps of Mormon Voters in places with McMullin on the ballot or write-in ballots accepted.
4.) Still--- Gubernatorial elections tend to have different dynamics than PRES elections so I'm still not totally sold on the Biden 2:1 in the Philly 'burbs (but open to the possibility).
5.) It is entirely plausible that Biden might also be significantly benefiting from basically having lived across the Delaware River, and likely quite well known and respected within the Philly 'burbs, not as "Scranton Joe", but rather as "Delaware Joe"...
6.) Again I could see these types of margins in DelCo and MontCo, or even certainly large swings in Chester County....
Still a 2:1 Biden number in the Philly 'Burbs would also indicate that Biden is winning comfortably in Bucks County, which was basically tied in '12 and '16 and +8% Obama in '08...
Now it could be that because Bucks County didn't really move at all in '16, that once the dam bursts it breaks hard in 2020...
Open to the possibility, but it still seems a bit higher than one might imagine... (Of course back in '16 many on Atlas were claiming that HRC would win PA by huge margins simply because of suburban Philly, despite early indicators of major drop-offs in NE and Western PA--- so naturally I would caution against assumptions regarding polling numbers from suburban PA simply because of one poll)....
