PA - ABC/WaPo: Biden+9

[Hammy]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

[WD]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

Yeah, and Clinton got 47.5%, the poll was pretty spot on, it’s just that undecideds broke hard at the end for Trump.

[Gass3268]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

538 and RCP have no evidence of a Washington Post poll in PA.

[Hammy]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

538 and RCP have no evidence of a Washington Post poll in PA.

It's on Atlas--is it there in error? If not then I have a hard time believing it won't be closer than this.

[Gass3268]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

538 and RCP have no evidence of a Washington Post poll in PA.

It's on Atlas--is it there in error? If not then I have a hard time believing it won't be closer than this.

They were Survey Monkey polls. I'm guessing 538 and RCP did not include them for that reason.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ve been saying for a while that Trump’s electoral college advantage will likely be much smaller this year than is was in 2016.  It’s possible that MI, WI, and PA will all vote to the left of the nation.

[NOVA Green]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

538 and RCP have no evidence of a Washington Post poll in PA.

It's on Atlas--is it there in error? If not then I have a hard time believing it won't be closer than this.

They were Survey Monkey polls. I'm guessing 538 and RCP did not include them for that reason.

So I tried to search for this in the archives in my Washington Post account, and honestly it is an unimaginable search engine when it comes to pulling up archival data (maybe I just need a proper tutorial)...

Still I would imagine anyone currently attending a College or University likely has free access to Lexisnexis free as part of your tuition (as I did in Grad School), and all Washington Post articles going back decades and decades should be available in at minimum a text-based format...

[n1240]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

Their national poll in 2016 is irrelevent to state polling comparison.

Their last Pennsylvania poll was +6 (46-40) which was off by 7, the average error was 3 for the state.

538 and RCP have no evidence of a Washington Post poll in PA.

It's on Atlas--is it there in error? If not then I have a hard time believing it won't be closer than this.

They were Survey Monkey polls. I'm guessing 538 and RCP did not include them for that reason.

This is a very important thing to distinguish. ABC/WaPo joint polls have been using Langer Research as their pollster for years, and they've been very good. I believe this is the first year Langer has been polling states for them though, previously only did national polls.

[roxas11]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

If Biden is really is over 50 percent in PA
All the polling errors in world will still not be enough to save Trump lol

[NOVA Green]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

If Biden is really is over 50 percent in PA
All the polling errors in world will still not be enough to save Trump lol

Casablanca Movie Rip Off quote:  "Of all of the polling errors in all the world, he had to walk into mine"   

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE for likely voters: 5%

Other 0% (but some voters)
Neither 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

[Rand]

rigged

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's becoming clear that Trump has a white people problem in northern states. Those college level white numbers are something else.

A couple of weeks ago, some editorial had argued that Donald Trump runs as the "last President of the Confederacy" this election and this seems to be in fact accurate.

[tagimaucia]

The PA poll from 2016 is in fact a junk SurveyMonkey poll. ABC/Wapo is the closest thing there is to a good standard for national polling, imo. But I agree that they’re unproven as a state pollster so let’s wait and see how they do.

[wbrocks67]

IDK why, but the people who write up these ABC/Wapo polls always try and spin them as positive as possible for Trump as they can.

Trump is literally down *9 to 10 points* with basically *0 undecided* and yet we are getting this analysis - that I doubt we would be getting if Biden was down 9-10 here.

 Biden’s current edge among likely voters appears sizable but is not definitive, given the five-point margin of error that applies to each candidate’s support

Whatever his current deficit, Trump has a path to holding the state in November if he can replicate what happened four years ago. A month before the 2016 election, several Pennsylvania polls showed Trump trailing by double digits. Clinton’s lead deteriorated in the final two weeks of that campaign, a time in which her campaign was buffeted by renewed questions about her private email system. Exit polls show that Trump won late-deciding voters by double-digits and carried the state by about 45,000 votes, or seven-tenths of a percent.

[wbrocks67]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

If anyone's been watching what's going on in the Philly suburbs (I live here BTW) then this result is not surprising at all, especially when Wolf/Casey completely *routed* there in 2018, as well as the congressional candidates. Bucks County had its own "mini" blue wave even in 2019. Trump did reasonably bad here in 2016 but it's gotten substantially worse for him ever since.

[wbrocks67]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310793576704610304?s=20

Why isn't this hard to believe? if Biden is actually leading by nine, it makes sense he is putting up Wolf margins in some areas, falling a bit behind Wolf in others, and then failing to match him and just keeping level with Clinton in the reddest regions. That's what the crosstabs suggest.

Fair enough...

Still:

1.) 2018 was an off-year election (50k less Total Voters in Bucks County alone for example), and as we know DEMs turned out generally at higher levels in Northern Suburbs than Republicans.

2.) It is true that 2018 was a bit of an indicator of increasing swings among Suburban Northern voters, even in places which did not experience the +12-15% Obama > HRC swings in '16, suggesting that there remains quite a bit of room for DEMs to expand in this type of terrain.

3.) Sure 3rd Party '16 GE PRES voters will likely tend to vote overwhelmingly Biden in '20, with the exception of perhaps of Mormon Voters in places with McMullin on the ballot or write-in ballots accepted.

4.) Still--- Gubernatorial elections tend to have different dynamics than PRES elections so I'm still not totally sold on the Biden 2:1 in the Philly 'burbs (but open to the possibility).

5.) It is entirely plausible that Biden might also be significantly benefiting from basically having lived across the Delaware River, and likely quite well known and respected within the Philly 'burbs, not as "Scranton Joe", but rather as "Delaware Joe"...

6.) Again I could see these types of margins in DelCo and MontCo, or even certainly large swings in Chester County....

Still a 2:1 Biden number in the Philly 'Burbs would also indicate that Biden is winning comfortably in Bucks County, which was basically tied in '12 and '16 and +8% Obama in '08...

Now it could be that because Bucks County didn't really move at all in '16, that once the dam bursts it breaks hard in 2020...

Open to the possibility, but it still seems a bit higher than one might imagine...   (Of course back in '16 many on Atlas were claiming that HRC would win PA by huge margins simply because of suburban Philly, despite early indicators of major drop-offs in NE and Western PA--- so naturally I would caution against assumptions regarding polling numbers from suburban PA simply because of one poll)....

Bucks itself voted for Casey by 16% and Wolf by 19% in 2018. And they are the lighter blue of Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery.  They also had a blue wave in 2019: https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania-2019-election-results-20191106.html

So none of this is surprising to anyone paying attention to this region.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump was running in a 4 percent unemployment economy and had Gary Johnson and Pat Toomey on the ballot. Bloomberg worked on Toomey's behalf to defeat Kate McGinty due to gun control rights in 2016.

PA has had only 1 R Gov and he was blanched in 2014, Corbett by 9 pts

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310806567495884801

[Da2017]

If this is accurate Trump could also be in trouble in Ohio.

[ExSky]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310793576704610304?s=20

Why isn't this hard to believe? if Biden is actually leading by nine, it makes sense he is putting up Wolf margins in some areas, falling a bit behind Wolf in others, and then failing to match him and just keeping level with Clinton in the reddest regions. That's what the crosstabs suggest.

The denial is just simply coping.

[woodley park]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

Just curious, but are you going to post the receipts if it turns out that you were the one talking out of your ass?

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m really starting to feel like this is slipping away from Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m really starting to feel like this is slipping away from Trump.

It was already doomed scenario for Trump, WI, MI, PA, MN weren't gonna vote R again, due to 2018, and D's won even without Covid

[Mr. Illini]

The working people of Pennsylvania are crying out: they want JOE!