2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[mijan]

Dems have taken over 100 k lead over GOP in Iowa early voting.
IA-1
Dem 56.2 k
Rep 22.7k
Dem + 33.5 k

IA-2
Dem 51.6 k
Rep 20.2k
Dem +31.4 k

IA-3
Dem 50k
Rep 21.9k
Dem +28.1 k

IA-4
Dem 31.3 k
Rep 23.5k
Dem +7.8k

Total
Dem 189.1 k
Rep 88.4k
Dem +100.7k

Daily Absentee Statistics - By Congressional District

[mijan]

Iowa early voting history

2018
Dem 231.6 k
Rep 191.2 k
Dem +40.4 k

2016
Dem 267.8 k
Rep 225.8k
Dem +42.0k

2012
Dem 287.9 k
Rep 219.6 k
Dem +68.3 k

2020 till now
Requested Absentee Ballot
Dem 384.9 k
Rep 230.5 k
Dem + 154.4 k

Recived Absentee Ballot
Dem 189.1 k
Rep 88.4 k
Dem + 100.7 k

[mijan]

Dems have taken over 100 k lead over GOP in Iowa early voting.
IA-1
Dem 56.2 k
Rep 22.7k
Dem + 33.5 k

IA-2
Dem 51.6 k
Rep 20.2k
Dem +31.4 k

IA-3
Dem 50k
Rep 21.9k
Dem +28.1 k

IA-4
Dem 31.3 k
Rep 23.5k
Dem +7.8k

Total
Dem 189.1 k
Rep 88.4k
Dem +100.7k

Daily Absentee Statistics - By Congressional District

How does that compare to previous years? I know Iowa always has a D advantage in early voting, even in really bad years like 2014 and 2016.

Huge advantage compare to 2016
Dems had 42 k lead in 2016
Now Dems already have advantage over 100.7 k lead
I think Dems have the potential to take 160- 170 k lead in early voting.

[mijan]

In Iowa Dems increase their lead to 114.1 k over GOP
IA-1
Dem 65333
Rep 28131
Dem + 37202

IA-2
Dem 59795
Rep 24925
Dem + 34870

IA-3
Dem 61717
Rep 28217
Dem +33500

IA-4
Dem 36741
Rep 28209
Dem +8532

Total
Dem 223586
Rep 109482
Dem +114104

Dems lead was 101 k yesterday, so dems increased their lead by 13k within 1 day.

[mijan]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

Dems lead now is 114 k.
I think at the end of early voting Dem can get 170-180 k early voting lead.

Dem lead was 42 k in 2016 and 68 k in 2012.

[mijan]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

Yes, its really shocking considering that TN is not a swing state.

[mijan]

Dems have taken 174 k lead in NC.
Dems 270k
Rep 96 k

[mijan]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

Yes, its really shocking considering that TN is not a swing state.

Do we know where in the state these numbers are coming from? 

Davidson 44k
Shelby 32 k
Hamilton 15k
Williamson 14 k
Rutherford 14 k
Knox 13 k

[mijan]

Dems lead Rep by 394.3 k in early voting. Dems lead Rep by 74.7 to 17.0 in terms of percentage.
In Philadelphia 156 k people have already voted.
Allegheny 190 k
Chester 49k
Lancaster 36 k
Northhampton 36 k

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats updated
Returned ballots
IA -1
Dem 72 k
Rep 32.4 k
Dem + 39.6 k

IA-2
Dem 69.3 k
Rep 30.6 k
Dem + 38.7 k

IA-3
Dem 68.2 k
Rep 32.3 k
Dem +35.9 k

IA-4
Dem 42.7 k
Rep 35.5 k
Dem + 7.2 k

Total
Dem 252.3 k
Rep 130.8 k
Dem + 121.5 k

Requested ballots

IA-1
Dem 104.6 k
Rep 55.2 k
Dem +49.4 k

IA-2
Dem 106 k
Rep 53.6 k
Dem + 52.4 k

IA-3
Dem 114.7k
Rep 63.9 k
Dem +50.8k


IA-4

Dem 71.9 k
Rep 69.3 k
Dem +2.6 k

Total

Dem 397.2 k
Rep 242 k
Dem +155.2 k

[mijan]

Dems lead Rep by 394.3 k in early voting. Dems lead Rep by 74.7 to 17.0 in terms of percentage.
In Philadelphia 156 k people have already voted.
Allegheny 190 k
Chester 49k
Lancaster 36 k
Northhampton 36 k

Some of these PA counties are taking forever to report their numbers, especially the Philly burbs. It’s annoying.

Totally  agree with you. Bucks has 0.6 % return rate
Montgomery has 1% return rate

[mijan]

IA- 1 162 k Registered Rep
IA-2 168 k Registered Rep
IA-3 194 k Registered Rep
IA-4 216 k Registered Rep

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated
Till now total 821300 people have voted in WI

Dane leads with 135 k votes
Followed by
Milwaukee 133 k votes
Waukesha 68 k votes
Brown 42 k votes

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated
Till now total 821300 people have voted in WI

Dane leads with 135 k votes
Followed by
Milwaukee 133 k votes
Waukesha 68 k votes
Brown 42 k votes

Dane's number is really encouraging sign for Biden.
Great turnout day in Wisconsin as there were 65,093 new votes returned since yesterday to bring the totals to 821,300. There will probably be over 900,000 returned votes when in-person absentee voting starts on Tuesday. The trio of Milwaukee-Dane-Waukesha all returned pretty substantial numbers of raw votes (10,648-8,269-6,136). Dane County is up to 43.67% of 2016 votes returned. Still possible that Dane County could get to 50% by next Tuesday morning. Today is the first day of Madison having 14 drop boxes across the city.

Dane's number is really encouraging sign for Biden.

[mijan]

Dems take 444 k lead in FL early voting
Dems 1128 k
Rep 684 k
Dem +444 k

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated
Till now total 821300 people have voted in WI

Dane leads with 135 k votes
Followed by
Milwaukee 133 k votes
Waukesha 68 k votes
Brown 42 k votes

Great turnout day in Wisconsin as there were 65,093 new votes returned since yesterday to bring the totals to 821,300. There will probably be over 900,000 returned votes when in-person absentee voting starts on Tuesday. The trio of Milwaukee-Dane-Waukesha all returned pretty substantial numbers of raw votes (10,648-8,269-6,136). Dane County is up to 43.67% of 2016 votes returned. Still possible that Dane County could get to 50% by next Tuesday morning. Today is the first day of Madison having 14 drop boxes across the city.

I wonder how much these numbers are going to surge next week when in-person early voting starts. I'll be voting with my family at 8 AM on Monday, I'm sure it's going to be a huge day statewide for voting numbers.

Can we expect 60% turnout before election day.

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated
853 k people voted so far.
Dane 138653
Milwaukee 138382
Brown 44150
Waukesha 70520

https://elections.wi.gov/node/7186

[mijan]

WI early vote information updated
858 k people have voted.
Milwaukee overtakes Dane in raw number
Milwaukee  139868
Dane 139520
Dane has 68% mail in ballots  return rate.

[mijan]

Iowa early vote stats updated.
Dems have approximately 129 k vote lead.
IA-1
Dems 78.1 k
Rep 36.1 k
Dems + 42.0 k

IA-2
Dems 77.5 k
Rep 35.4 k
Dems +42.1 k
IA-3
Dems 74.8 k
Rep 36.4 k
Dems +38.4 k

IA-4
Dems 49.2 k
Rep 42.4 k
Dems +6.8 k

Total
Dems 279.6 k
Rep 150.7 k
Dems +128.9 k

Fun fact: In 2016
267 k registered Dems voted early
More Dems already voted early in 2020 even though there is 2 weeks left for early voting.
There is a high possibility that 400 k registered Dems will vote early at the end of early voting.

Dems lead early voting now 55-29 %

[mijan]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

Wow 500 k lead for Dems.

[mijan]

Iowa early vote stats up
IA-1
Dem 84434
Rep 40395
NPA 26304
Dem + 44039

IA-2
Dem 83086
Rep 39763
NPA 24968
Dem + 43323

IA-3
Dem 82557
Rep 41961
NPA 23265
Dem + 40596

IA-4
Dem 54274
Rep 49001
NPA 18971
Dem +5273

Total
Dem 304351
Rep 171120
NPA 93508
Dem + 133231

Dem have crossed 300k early voting mark. That's huge as in 2012 only 288 k registered Dem voted early.

Couple of points I want to make after seeing this data.

- Dems enthusiasm is very high in Iowa.
- The early voting advantage of Dems this time in Iowa is simply historic and it can not be compared with 2016,2012.
In 2012 Dems have 67 k advantage
In 2016 Dems have 42 k advantage
This time Dems have as of today 133 k vote advantage and have the potential to take 170 k early vote lead.

- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.

-Rep are slowly closing gap in IA-4 Dems lead comes down to 5k compare to 8k 5-6 days ago. However Rep are getting killed in IA-1,2&3 with Dems already having 40 k+ vote advantages in all of them.

-Dems have return rate of 74.95% compare to Rep's 67.73% return rate.
-Dems lead early vote 53.31% to 29.97% over Rep.

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated 915965 people voted early.
Milwaukee is leading with 148998 votes
Dane is second with 146530 votes
Waukesha is third with 76136 votes
Brown is fourth with 47303 votes
Outagamie is fifth with 31061 votes
Other than that Kenosha casted 22884 votes
La cross casted 20474 votes
Racine casted 25161 votes
Rock casted 24065 votes
Washington casted 20258 votes
Winnebago casted 27659 votes.

[mijan]

=- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.=

In IA voters requested 783K mail ballots, which is about 50% of the 2016 turnout. In 2020 turnout is going to be higher, so mail in votes are going to be maybe around 45% of the total votes or so? Republicans can easily close that gap on the election day. The problem is that Rep turnout in 2016 was 87%, Dem 80% and no party 69%. (I am comparing the numbers in this article https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/13/analysis-trumps-iowa-victory-fueled-republican-turnout-independents/96496834/ to the voter registration numbers in November of 2016 https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf).  Almost 7 point difference in turnout between Republicans and Democrats - that's pretty big. Republicans can definitely catch up on the election day - and they probably will. But at this point it does not look like there is going to be a 7 point difference in turnout between Dems and Reps.

IA requested 827572 early votes, which is 53% of  1566031 votes casted in 2016 turnout. So I think early vote will be 50% of total vote in Iowa.
4 years ago early vote was 43% of total vote.

[mijan]

DEMS are also winning independents in Iowa in polls.
Among 827 k early vote request
Dems 412370
Rep 256992
No party 154926
Dems get 155378 advantage, if they win Independents by 10 then another 17 k votes advantages to Dem then Dem can have early vote advantage of 170 k votes. Then Reps have lower return rate it can give Dems another 10k vote advantage.


Overcoming 180 k votes difference will be a tough task for GOP.

[mijan]

608 k people already voted early in Iowa.
IA 1
D  88.5 k
R 43.8 k
D +44.7 k

IA 2
D 87.1 k
R 42.9 k
D +44.2 k

IA 3
D 87.8 k
R 45.4 k
D + 42.4 k

IA 4

D 56.7 k
R 52.4 k
D + 4.3 k

Total
D 320.2 k
R 184.4 k
D + 135.8 k


842459 requested absentee ballot in IA till today.