UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

If a minister has lost confidence in the government, or their PM, they’d be compelled to resign from their ministerial post. If Johnson survives, they’d be out of the cabinet before the morning.

Members can vote against their leader, but ministers are bound by collective responsibility to support the government, and the leader.

In a private ballot though, all bets are off…

[Torrain]

Big news - the PM’s anti-corruption czar, a sitting MP has resigned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760

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Edit - Penrose hasn’t just resigned, he timed it so he could talk to Sky News within 5 minutes of his resignation. Now sticking the knife into Johnson on the airwaves - has confirmed he will vote to remove Johnson.

[Torrain]

Popcorn time...
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Dorries seems hell-bent on handing free material to both the Opposition, and the COVID enquiry. Not that I’m complaining.

[Torrain]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

[Torrain]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

A unity ticket with Hunt?

Now that would be one for the history books - and possibly some dire polling. Can’t imagine Chancellor Patel would go down well - maybe she’s holding out for the Foreign Office?

Although I guess Hunt has probably offered the Great Offices of State to a number of MPs by now.

[Torrain]

Isn't Patel one of the most unpopular cabinet members ?

The public don’t like Patel - but she polls well with members of the party membership, especially on the right. Hunt is a known Cameroon, and seem as broadly moderate. If he brought Patel into the fold, he’d shore up his support with a wing of the party that inherently distrust him.

[Torrain]

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry. 

Just to follow up from this - Patel released a statement through a spokesman, who said that “ The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening”.

Still odd to have no word from Patel herself, but hey, I guess that’s the probably as close as we’re going to get.

Also - Patel is only the 122nd MP to come out in favour of Johnson today, well short of the 180 Johnson needs to survive. For contrast, May had the public support of well over 50% of MPs by this point in the day. Johnson has just passed 34%. That doesn’t mean he’s going to lose (consensus still seems to be a win with a slim-to-moderate margin) but its not exactly an encouraging sign for him.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
Not sure about this line, chaps.

“Vote for me, fellas - it’s going to be more of the same from here on out!”
Is this a failure of impulse control, or just a startling level of self-confidence?

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Multiple journalists reporting that Theresa May has turned up to vote - wearing a ballgown.
Not sure whether she's finally embraced camp as an aesthetic, or she just has a fancy dinner reservation.

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John Lamont, (Scottish Tory in the the Borders region) has resigned as Liz Truss’ PPS, and publicly declared a vote against Johnson.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1533867604766605315?s=21&t=9FqH_e-GCg-awmfF3sYoOA

[Torrain]

Multiple journalists reporting that Theresa May has turned up to vote - wearing a ballgown.
Not sure whether she's finally embraced camp as an aesthetic, or she just has a fancy dinner reservation.

Up there with Dominic Grieve leading a Brexit rebellion in tails.

Remember when Cameron had to rush back to Parliament from a formal occasion at City Hall and was wearing a dinner jacket? It was some rebellion by JRM and Labour during the Coalition.

That was the European Arrest Warrant thing, right? JRM, Peter Bone and the rest of the "awkward squad" forced a vote while most of Parliament was out at dinner, and Cameron was at some event in the City of London?

[Torrain]

~38 mins. to go, if the counting schedule holds up. Any predictions?

Gun to my head, I'll say that BoJo "wins" by a totally & completely shot-in-the-dark margin of 187-172.

A 52-48% split? It would certainly bring Boris's premiership full circle, right back to the referendum...

[Torrain]

For contrast, Johnson got a lower percentage of the vote than May in 2018, Major vs Redwood, and Thatcher vs Heseltine.

I just can't see Johnson surviving without the support of 42% of his MPs.

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https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298?s=20&t=6m_Ni70u4Ybt8a1UnxNU7Q

So who goes first?

We don’t know - that’s the fun part. If there was an obvious candidate they’d have denied it or publicly joined the rebels, and already resigned.

Some of today’s new rebels, including John Lamont (who resigned from the government this evening) had made cautious criticisms of the Government earlier this week - which often translates into louder actions, and resignations later. But a lot of people have done that, so we’d have to pour through websites and twitter feeds of dozens of MPs.I only know about Lamont’s earlier criticism because I have a personal link to his constituency, and so keep an eye out for news there.

The only thought I have, is that the Solicitor General, Alex Chalk, was repeatedly rumoured to be considering resigning during the early days of partygate, but decided against it after Ukraine got bad.

[Torrain]

The knives are out - Hague has just released a pre-written column calling for Johnson to go.
https://mobile.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1533920750473732096

It’s pretty harsh stuff:

The nature of their revolt has an important bearing on what happens next. They are not a faction that has been seen off, or an alternative policy direction that has been defeated. They represent instead a widespread feeling, a collapse of faith, that almost certainly cannot be repaired or reversed. For Johnson, continuing to lead the party after such a revolt will prove to be unsustainable.

[Torrain]

Front pages of tomorrow’s papers are a real mix. The Telegraph declares a Tory civil war, the left-wing papers lament Johnson’s survival, and the Mail & Express live on an alternate planet where the PM is a noble man, fighting on against an unjust system. 
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Not sure this bodes well for his chances:

[Torrain]

Another VONC........to be tabled by Ed Davey in the Commons.

I think the expectation is that Labour are going to push to use the time to hold a vote disavowing Johnson’s new ministerial code changes instead. I think the Official Opposition get priority, or at least hold most of the cards on Opposition Day, they’re weird day and my Erskine May isn’t good enough to be sure.

Tbh, if true, Labour might just be onto something. A vote on the new ministerial code isn’t exciting, but there’s now enough votes, between the opposition and Tory rebels, to theoretically defeat the Government and give Johnson a serious bloody nose. Obviously that depends on how the motion is worded, and how p**sed off the rebels are today, but could be interesting.

A VONC in the Commons will fail, and while it will make vulnerable Tories look bad (which is good for the Lib Dems), it doesn’t challenge the government itself, and pushes the Conservatives to rally together, which doesn’t help their cause either.

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It looks like some of the deals the PM & Cabinet used to survive yesterday are leaking out:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1534095295197356033

If Seely feels confident discussing this publicly, then it’s hardly going to be a one-off incident. Expect a lot of Home County potholes are about to get mysteriously filled.

[Torrain]

Worth noting that Wakeford's defection probably did a lot to stall Tory moves against Johnson because of the feelings of betrayal it caused. It'd be mad for any Tory MPs to give up the whip when they've got Johnson reeling, because it'd just restore that dynamic.

On the other hand, provoking Johnson into suspending the whip from some of the rebels would probably make overthrowing him a lot easier.

100% this. The rebellion amongst 2019ers went dead silent after Wakeford left. Enough of them came out against Johnson this week that it’s clear they still opposed the PM, but they were clearly to spooked to go on at the time.

Johnson panicking, and trying to kick Roger Gale, William Wragg or Tobias Ellwood out of the party would likely be far more damaging than 2-3 backbenchers taking the Lib Dem whip.

 That said, if he let Anne Marie Morris back into the party this week, even knowing she would immediately send her 1922 letter in, I’m skeptical he’s about to try and purge the backbenchers.

[Torrain]

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

Because the government’s approach now looks like this:

The flames in the background are only mostly allegorical.

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New spreadsheet for those interested in the likely shortlist of candidate for a ministerial resignation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1534170871446773761

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Aren't there special elections later this month with the Tories about to lose seats? I'm relatively certain likely losses here will give opponents from own ranks new ammunition. The dude is pretty much done.

Aye, two. One is a former Labour seat (and current polling puts them far ahead), and the other is tipped to go Liberal Democrat, abandoning the Tories for the first time in 99 years, since 1923.

More discussion here, in the rolling UK by-elections thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=435421.new#new

[Torrain]

It’s worth noting just how “banana republic” Johnson’s rhetoric got at PMQs today.

Boris Johnson has said “absolutely nothing and no one” will stop him continuing in office, during his first prime minister’s questions since an unconvincing victory in a confidence vote among Tory MPs.

Very democratic, very normal.

[Torrain]

Drilling for fossil fuels in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency appears to have been approved, and made public within 48 hours of him publicly attacking Johnson. There could well be an innocent explanation, but it’s hard not to see this as petty revenge.

Especially given that the Isle of Wight’s MP yesterday made a specific point of saying that he voted for Johnson after he was promised significant funding for his constituency.

Full statement from Hunt at the link below.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1534827165329633285