Allred and Fletcher?
Do these idiots ever learn?
Also Woodbury, you still haven’t left the site for a year, please do.
Allred won by 5 and Fletcher by 3 in a D+4 year. If you assume that 2022 will be an R wave they will be competitive, if not even outright lean R. As of now I'd temptatively rate TX-32 as Lean D and TX-07 as tossup
If anything the 3 South Texas seats are iffier as they are much more dependent on trends that materialized overnight and perhaps incumbency could save those representatives. Or perhaps they fall asleep at the wheel. As of now I'd rate TX-15 as tossup (or even Lean R), TX-34 as Lean D and TX-28 as Likely D.
Then again this depends on redistricting too. Adjusting for that I guess Allred and Fletcher would be Likely D? (if not outright Safe); while I guess Republicans will draw 1 or 2 sinks in South Texas and leave a third competitive district.
Ya it all depends on redistributing. My guess is they draw one of Allred or Fletcher into a sink and one into a Lean R district to try to take them out before they get entrenched. Then they draw two RGV sinks and a Lean R district down there and try to draw the rest of the D incumbents into sinks. Frankly I think the Texas GOP is going to dummymander the hell out of it but who knows without seeing the map.
