Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy studying formulas to dissolve parliament and call third election if there’s no government by September, El Mundo newspaper reports, citing unnamed sources.

[jaichind]

PP Would Win Up to 144 Seats in 3rd Elections: La Razon Poll

(Bloomberg) -- People’s Party would win up to 144 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.
Socialists would win 83-85 seats vs 85 now; Unidos Podemos up to 72 seats vs 71 now; Ciudadanos 30-31 seats vs 32
Voter participation would drop to 61% from 66%

[Velasco]

King Felipe begun talks with party leaders this week. There is an awful sense of deja vu.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/26/inenglish/1469521499_441254.html?rel=mas

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This morning Felipe VI met with C's leader Albert Rivera, who proposed two alternatives to the king: PP-PSOE-C's coalition without Mariano Rajoy or PP minority government with the PSOE abstention in the investiture. The first alternative was dismissed by Rajoy yesterday, when he gave clear expression of his desire to stay. The second alternative has been dismissed by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who refuses to concede abstention. Albert Rivera opposes to vote for the acting PM, so the gridlock continues.

The meeeting between King Felipe and Pablo Iglesias already took place.

In other news, the Parliament of Catalonia defies Constitutional Court by passing a text that sets the agenda for the "disconnection' from Spain. JxSí and the CUP voted in favour, while PP and C's MPs left the chamber in protest, PSC members stayed in but didn't vote and CSP voted against. Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont will face a motion of confidence on September 28.

[jaichind]

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy ready to negotiate 125 points with PSOE and Ciudadanos, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/01/inenglish/1470041109_608806.html

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Constitutional Court suspends the resolution made by the Parliament of Catalonia for the "disconnection" and the independence. Rajoy's administration demanded the Court to deal with speaker Carme Forcadell by means of criminal law, for being a "person clearly involved" who leads an institution (the Catalan Parliament) that "violates" the constitutional state. The Court just ruled to notice personally premier Carles Puigdemont, Mrs Forcadell and other officials their eventual responsibility in case the suspension is ignored.

Basque Country and Galicia will hold elections together on September 25.

[Nanwe]

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

The problem with Metroscopia's poll is that basically the wording is very treacherous.

The question is "If in order to prevent the repetition of the elections, the only alternative would be for the PSOE to abstain and let Rajoy govern in exchange of a series of agreed to reform, what would you prefer?

a) PSOE abstention
b) Electoral repetition

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

[Velasco]

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.

[jeron]

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.

Last time i read El Pais, it wasn't as clear about this as you write here. Yes they think that PSOE should possibly abstain, but they also wrote that some of the policies proposed by PP are unacceptable for PSOE.

[Nanwe]

A bit of an (admittedly outdate but useful, data is from 2014) social analysis of how the broad Spanish middle class votes. Data from here: http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/download.html?file=ESS7e02&y=2014, work is not mine, by the way.

(Sectorial) Social Class and Voting in Spain

The graphic below allow us to see which social classes are over- or underrepresented in the various main Spanish political parties. National average is 0.

The PP is over-represented amongst small businessmen and to a lesser degree amongst the group of managers and administrators.

The PSOE is markedly the party of industrial production workers, the social class traditionally linked to the social-democratic parties, but also to the right-wing populist parties in other countries. This group is one of the so-called 'losers of globalisation'.

Podemos particularly attracts the socio-cultural liberal professionals, a category that also tends to be over-represented in the new left or green parties in various European countries.

Ciudadanos is the most voted party by managers and administrators, although it is also over-represented amongst technical professionals.

The results seem to confirm a new division in the salaried middle class between the socio-cultural professionals and the administrators and managers that is also observable in other countrues, like Germany, Great Britain, Sweden or Switzerland. An individual's position in the national work structure seems to be elated to political behaviour in Spain too, although without taking into account the strong duality of the Spanish labour market.

[Velasco]

PP spokesman on the investiture negotiations between PP and Ciudadanos:
 "This is the beginning of a love affair"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/19/inenglish/1471612658_302672.html

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At present Mariano Rajoy has 170 votes: PP, C's and the Canary Coalition. No change of stance from PSOE:

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[jaichind]

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/08/22/57ba0c4822601df33c8b459e.html

As much as 54% of PSOE voters believe party should abstain if PP and C reach a pact for formation of Spanish govt, El Mundo reports, citing opinion poll. 55% of PSOE voters prefer PP-led govt now instead of third round of elections.

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy expected to fail in first investiture attempt,

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/30/inenglish/1472566760_282741.html

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Key regional elections are scheduled on September 25 in Galicia and Basque Country. Mariano Rajoy hopes to win a big victory for PP in Galicia. In the Basque Country the ruling PNV might need both PSOE and PP to secure a majority in regional parliament. After these elections, a second investiture attempt could take place in October. By then, pressure on PSOE leadership to abstain could increase. Depending on results, even Basque nationalists could reconsider their vote. There still exists a very remote possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition government with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. In case no candidate is elected, a new election would take place on Christmas Day. In order to avoid that eventuality, PSOE proposed to reduce the duration of the electoral campaign from two weeks to just one. 

[Velasco]

Mr Rajoy fails:  Yes 170; No 180

Acting PM reveals during the investiture debate that Colombian government and the FARC will sign their peace deal on September 26, a date that should be kept in secret. The news has been received with some perplexity in Bogota. Shame.

[jaichind]

http://www.larazon.es/espana/pp-y-c-s-sumarian-mayoria-absoluta-CD13454042#

PP would win up to 146 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.  PSOE would win 82-85 seats vs 85 now; Podemos 67-70 seats vs 71 now, C 30-31 seats vs 32
In theory, PP and C will then have majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?

[Velasco]

Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?

Apparently there's going to be little surprise or emotion in Basque and Galician elections on next Sunday. Ruling parties are expected to win comfortably in both regions and the only questions left are: 1) Will Alberto Núñez Feijoó (PP) win a majority in Galicia?; and 2) Which will be the main opposition party in Basque and Galician parliaments?

In the Basque Country the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) is polling between 35% and 37% (34.2% in 2012); EH Bildu would come in second place and is polling between 19% and 21% (24.7% in 2012); Elkarrekin Podemos (Podemos, IU, Equo) is polling between 17% and 19%; PSE-EE (PSOE) is between 11% and 12% (18.9% in 2012); PP is between 8% and 10% (11.6% in 2012); and Ciudadanos is between 2% and 3% (some polls say C's will win a seat in Álava and others say it won't).

Main candidates:

EAJ-PNV: Incumbent lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu.

EH Bildu: Arnaldo Otegi was released from prison in March, on having served his sentence (he was convicted of having tried to reorganize Batasuna, outlawed because of links to ETA). Despite the same sentence disqualified Otegi from holding public office until 2021, EH Bildu proclaimed him candidate. In August the Gipuzkoa provincial electoral commission ruled that Otegi couldn't run. He's campaigning anyway as unofficial candidate, spiritual leader or martyr of the cause.

Elkarrekin Podemos: The purple party pretended to hire an independent and renowned figure to contest the regional election. After a couple of unsuccessful attempts, Podemos picked odontologist Pilar Zabala, who is sister of an alleged ETA activist tortured and killed in 1983 by the GAL paramilitary group.

PSE-EE (PSOE) Idoia Mendia, who replaced former lehendakari Patxi López in the party leadership and was the spokeswoman of the Basque government between 2009 and 2012.

Popular Party: Alfonso Alonso. Mayor of Vitoria between 1999 and 2007, PP spokesman in the Congress of Deputies between 2011 and 2014 and Minister of Health between December 2014 and August 2016.

Ciudadanos: A certain Nicolás de Miguel tops the list in Álava.

In all likelihood Mr Urkullu will be elected for a second term with the support of Basque socialists.

In Galicia PP is polling between 42% and 46% (45.8% in 2012) and would win a majority or would be on the verge of it; En Marea (Podemos, IU, Anova) is polling between 20% and 26% (AGE got 13.9% in 2012); PSOE between 17% and 20% (20.6% in 2012); BNG between 5% and 7% (10.1% in 2012); and Ciudadanos between 3% and 5% (in case oranges get 5% or more in the provinces of A Coruña or Pontevedra, they'll win seats; otherwise they won't).

The options in play are:

1) PP majority: Incumbent Alberto Núñez Feijoó is elected for a third term.
2) PP plurality: a) En Marea, PSOE and BNG add a majority. Luis Villares (En Marea) or Xoaquin Fernández Leiceaga (PSOE) would be elected to head a coalition government, depending on which party comes second. b) C's wins seats in the regional parliament and supports PP candidate in the investiture (no leftwing majority).  

[Velasco]

El País: "Political deadlock in Spain takes toll on increasingly divided parties"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/23/inenglish/1474618460_544509.html

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[Velasco]

Strain in Podemos; Rajoy sits back letting things go

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Kiko Llaneras' prediction for Basque Country elections (statistic model based on polls)

EAJ-PNV 27 (26-29) seats; EH Bildu 16 (15-18) seats; Elkarrekin Podemos 15 (13-16) seats; PSE-EE (PSOE) 9 (7-10) seats; PP 7 (6-8) seats; C's 1 (0-1) seat

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PNV 27, EH Bildu 21; PSE-EE 16; PP 10; UPyD 1

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474570444_224041.html

Prediction for Galicia

PP 40 (38-42) seats; En Marea 17 (15-19); PSOE 15 (13-16); BNG 2 (1-4); C's 0 (0-1)

PP majority: 84% chance. Leftwing majority: 11% chance.

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PP 41; PSOE 18; AGE 9; BNG 7

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474503886_481732.html

[jaichind]

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

[Velasco]

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

PNV spokepersons have stated clearly that in neither case they will support Mariano Rajoy in Madrid.

Actually the PNV candidate doesn't need PP to be elected, due to the particular regulation of the Basque parliament, according to which negative votes don't count in the investiture. In case PSOE seats are not enough to add a majority to the PNV in the first vote, Mr Urkullu could be easily elected in a second vote. The only way to prevent it is that an alternative candidate could get more votes; the only option -dismissed by the polls- would be one backed by EH Bildu and Podemos -in case both parties could reach an agreement-. As for the budget and other legislation, it won't be an issue. PNV has a long record in negotiations with other parties; in the past legislature they governed in minority backed mainly by PSOE, but they occasionally passed legislation with the support of EH Bildu. PNV will apply what Zapatero called once "variable geometry", that is to say, reach deals with one party or another depending on issues.

_{I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"}

[jaichind]

_{I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"}

Yes. Sorry for bad use of their abbreviation.  I know it should be EAJ/PNV but I just typed what came to my mind since in English they are the Basque Nationalist Party.   

Thanks for your info on how the Basque Parliament works. 

[jaichind]

Another angle where today's election might affect national alignment is if PSOE does poorly then that could trigger a coup against Sanchez within PSOE which in turn might alter the PSOE policy toward PP with respect to abstaining in the next vote of confidence.

[Mike88]

Polls close in Galicia and Pais Vasco. Exit polls released:

Galicia

PP: 38-41 seats
En Marea: 14-16 seats
PSOE: 14 -16 seats
BNG: 5-6 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

Pais Vasco

PNV: 27-30 seats
Bildu: 16-18 seats
UP: 13-15 seats
PSOE: 8-10 seats
PP: 7-8 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

[Mike88]

10% counted in Galicia

PP: 56,6% 47
PSOE: 17,8% 14
En Marea: 12,3% 8
BNG: 7,8% 6
C's: 2,4% 0

Nothing yet from Pais Vasco

[jaichind]

Where are links to results ?