Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3

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The most important thing in this poll for Ernst is she is getting close to 50%, she is at 48%, obviously once you get to 50% you can't lose a race so being at 48% is important for her, also since Republican statewide candidates have outperformed the polling in Iowa 3 cycles in a row, 2014, 2016 and 2018, being up even narrowly as a Republican is a good sign in Iowa.