Those 7 and 11 point thingies are assuming a uniform swing...and I would not assume anything like a uniform swing.
It's simple to calculate using a uniform swing - but, realistically, I expect seats to buck to trend (i.e. Labour holding ultra-marginals but losing relatively safe seats), especially if local factors come into play
I've assumed a uniform swing of 3% on the basis of the ICM poll - but some of those 22 constituencies could stay Labour, while the Tories may pick-up some seats where Labour majorities are greater than 6%
Dave
It all depends how the election pans out exactly...if the election is anything like the last one (by no means a given), then Labour would hold up well in their marginals, where turnout would be high, but would see reduced majorities in seats that are utterly safe anyways, where turnout would be low...that is to say, the Tories are not going to do anywhere as well as a uniform swing would lead you to think.
