Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

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Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

Cope

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2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

2002 was a break from the trend. Although 2002 saw Bush with approvals in the 60s and a decent economy. However, if Biden remains popular and the economy remains good, Dems have a chance of holding both chambers.

Relying too heavily on past election results won't always make for a prediction come true.

Also, imo, a lot of the seats making up Dems current slim majority are trending in their favor, so I struggle to see more than like 10 seats that will flip in 2022. Of course thats enough to flip the chamber, but it's not enough to guarantee a flip in chamber control.

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If Joe is at 48% approval in Economist YouGov then he is probably lower than 48% national approval because last 2020 Economist YouGov poll said something like 53% Joe 41% Donald or something like that. It is quite possible Joe would easily do a a couple points worse in a rematch against Donald if the election were coming soon.

Literally every other poll has Biden in the low to mid 50s lmao

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Could anyone successfully primary Biden?

No. His numbers, as bad as they are, aren't devastating. There's still wide approval for him within the Dem Party and no serious politician will challenge him. Warren, Sanders (if he's even healthy enough), and certainly Harris wouldn't challenge him. Moderates, like Buttigieg and Klobuchar, are supportive of him and wouldn't dare. Other moderates like Gottheimer, S. Murphy, etc. would go absolutely nowhere. Novelty/celebrity candidates wouldn't fare well either.

TLDR he's still popular among Dems and nobody credible would challenge him. I guess Simena's crazy butt would think she has a shot but she'd go down in flames.

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Could anyone successfully primary Biden?

No. His numbers, as bad as they are, aren't devastating. There's still wide approval for him within the Dem Party and no serious politician will challenge him. Warren, Sanders (if he's even healthy enough), and certainly Harris wouldn't challenge him. Moderates, like Buttigieg and Klobuchar, are supportive of him and wouldn't dare. Other moderates like Gottheimer, S. Murphy, etc. would go absolutely nowhere. Novelty/celebrity candidates wouldn't fare well either.

TLDR he's still popular among Dems and nobody credible would challenge him. I guess Simena's crazy butt would think she has a shot but she'd go down in flames.

I’m operating under the assumption that his approvals will continue to go down rather than up and that his legislative wins won’t actually matter.

If he’s at 35 percent approval, I have to believe there are people who would at least consider throwing their hat in the ring.

That's an assumption that is unwise to make. 2024 is over three years away and thus a political lifetime. I doubt he goes below 38 and even then, that wouldn't guarantee a successful primary.

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