It probably doesn’t help Trump’s election odds. Only way I could see it maybe helping a little is if they leave the seat open until after the election and use that to drive up turnout among the base. If they fill it now, that will just anger Democrats and drive up their turnout instead. Might be a wash anyway even if they leave it open.
This is exactly what they’ll do. It’s a gamble, but it’s one with a high chance of reward.
If they fill the seat NOW they lose it as an election issue. Or it backfires on them and riles up Biden voters. There’s no third option.
If they wait until after the election, it riles up Trump’s base and they will turn out. Liberals will turn out too, but there’ll still be a portion of them who’ll be angry about Bernie losing or whatever and not vote for Biden.
I still think turnout amongst the base is already about maxed out though. Trump has been selling 2020 as another “Flight 93” election for the GOP, so if they were already amped up by an “existential” threat, what more do they really have to gain from this happening? This seat is also a bonus for them; they have a majority now regardless of this seat.
Meanwhile, facing a crushing minority in the Supreme Court that could last decades, 2020 now has become a do or die election for the Democratic Party — so I expect this to spur the base and Democrat leaning non voters and indies to action. No point in wasting your vote on Howie Hawkins now.
Plus, for all the talk of soft GOP’ers on the fence about Trump who may come home... I personally know many conservative-leaning suburban women (McCain, Romney Republicans) who are pro-choice and won’t take kindly to the idea of a deeply conservative Supreme Court revisiting social issues like abortion. While that is anecdotal, I don’t like assuming this suddenly gives Trump a slam dunk to win back his soft conservatives.
Also, for months the Senate GOP has done NOTHING to help people who are hurting physically and economically from the fallout of COVID-19, and suddenly they are going to try and rush through a Supreme Court nomination? What kind of message does that send to regular folks who are desperate for help but see Washington just focused on its usual power plays? Not a great look for GOP Senators and Trump..
