Ohio redistricting thread

[Tekken_Guy]

Ohio is expected to lose a congressional district during the next redisrticting cycle. How will this affect the maps in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

Where do you live?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://districtr.org/edit/1776

This is my fair Ohio district map.

District 1 (1): Blue district. Based in Cincinnati. Chabot would likely not run here because it is too Democratic here.
District 2 (: Yellow district in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties. Heavily Republican suburbs of Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup may run here.
District 3 (2): Blueish-green district. Open, deep-red, seat based in South Ohio. Would probably be labeled as District 2. Contains parts of Wenstrup’s and Stivers’ old districts, but neither of them live here.
District 4 (6): Lime-green district near the WV border. Very Republican district. Mostly Bill Johnson’s old district, but Balderson’s home of Zanesville will likely be here.
District 5 (10): Magenta district around Dayton. Mostly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican seat for Mike Turner.
District 6 (4): Purple district around Lima and Bellefontaine. Would be represented by Jordan or Davidson.
District 7 (5): Turqoise district in NW Ohio around Toledo. GOP-tilting swing district that would have a Latta vs. Kaptur matchup.
District 8 (7): Bluish-purple district near Mansfield and Marion. Bob Gibbs would run here.
District 9 (3): Red Columbus Dem vote sink for Joyce Beatty.
District 10 (12): Blue North Columbus/Delaware district. Balderson no longer lives here, but Steve Stivers could run if he wanted to.
District 11 (9): Orange West Cuyahoga/Lorain/Medina seat for Anthony Gonzalez to run in. Swingy but R-leaning.
District 12 (11): Green Cleveland-based seat that Marcia Fudge will easily win.
District 13 (14): Light pink district in East Cuyahoga and NE Ohio. Dave Joyce would run here. It’s swingle and Hillary narrowly won it because of Euclid and Bedford, but it’s trending R.
District 14 (13): Purple district in the Mahoning Valley. Tim Ryan is from here, but it’s getting pretty red. It could be his escape hatch out to the Senate since it’s slightly redder than the state overall.
District 15 (15): Swingy light-green district around Akron and Canton. Clinton narrowly lost it and no incumbents live here..

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the PVIs for each district?

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah this map looks better than mine. Well done! I went for fairness a little more, but this works.

I honestly like yours better. I think a Warren/Butler/Clermont R-sink district would look great. Also, there's no reason Montgomery and Greene shouldn't stay together.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bringing this back up because I’d like the DRA link to this. I want to convert some of these to DistrictR so we can see 2016 voting patterns.

[Tekken_Guy]

Fair map:

Link?

[Tekken_Guy]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

Kunze is termed out in 2024 so it won’t be her. But yeah they made it easier to stay GOP by tacking on Union. It’s very ugly and they should have just made a WWC R-trending seat in the south county.

[Tekken_Guy]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

There's a GOP Senator living in Madison and I believe the redistricting rules say a reasonable effort needs to be made to keep him in something resembling his current district since he won't be up for election in 2022.  Madison is currently drawn with Clark & Greene and that combo still falls within the acceptable population deviation so it's extremely unlikely that Madison will be removed from its current district to balance the population of another district.  Kunze also has to be kept reasonably within her district since she isn't up for re-election in 2022 either.

With that being said we arrive back where we started.  However, I suppose there is one other alternative which is to pair Franklin with Fairfield but that would push all 4 Franklin based districts almost to the max deviation over the ideal district size and Fairfield really needs to stay with the Southeast districts since they are all underpopulated already.

The new Kunze district is a lean R swing seat. I think Republicans wanted to put Dublin, etc. in the new Columbus D sink (SD-25) and turn SD-16 into a South Franklin and surrounding rural counties seat. But the redistricting rules not allowing them to interfere with even district seats forced them to keep the seat similar to its current in.

Kunze is term limited in 2024, but could be a strong candidate if the OH Supreme Court draws a swingy North Franklin/Delaware OH-12 for congress and Balderson doesn’t run there. The Court is R-controlled but probably not as gerrymander-happy as the legislature would be.

[Tekken_Guy]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1461434777509244940?s=20

If Democrats were smart they would have voted for this map to lock it in for ten years. It had dummymander written all over it.

Then again, if Republicans were smart they would have drawn as aggressively as they would a ten-year map. They gave Democrats an opening with that map and they’re lucky they didn’t take advantage of it.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

A map that respects CoI probably keeps Butler and Warren together.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

A map that respects CoI probably keeps Butler and Warren together.

The way you worded it shows you agree it's not an absolute rule, no?
There are things that matter besides "Butler and Warren are together".

It’s not a rule. Just a suggestion.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

A map that respects CoI probably keeps Butler and Warren together.

The way you worded it shows you agree it's not an absolute rule, no?
There are things that matter besides "Butler and Warren are together".

It’s not a rule. Just a suggestion.

I see.
What I'm concerned about is what putting Butler and Warren together might do to metro Columbus, and if I force the 8th out far enough, it might force weird lines and meandering around Metro Dayton+the 3rd and 12th.
Apologies if I sound overly gruff.

Just redraw the maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s a fair map I made. If there are any issues, let me know.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/398616e9-19f6-40a2-84ff-0f692af8aa7e

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s a fair map I made. If there are any issues, let me know.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/398616e9-19f6-40a2-84ff-0f692af8aa7e

Those 6th and 4th districts are one-of-a-kind. Never seen such a district before.

The 4th district is quite ugly given you’re trying to keep Jim Jordan and Warren Davidson in separate seats. They live in counties that are adjacent to each other. It’d be a lot cleaner if putting them together was not an issue.

[Tekken_Guy]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

The 12th can be made more competitive if it scoops into South Franklin and drops some deep blue parts to the 3rd.

[Tekken_Guy]

Assuming the OSC rules that the map needs to be rebalanced to have fewer safe/lean GOP districts, here is my first attempt at a "least change" proposal.

Can I see it on DRA?

[Tekken_Guy]

Reading the points on remapping in the court order, seems they're aiming for something like this?





https://davesredistricting.org/join/111853b3-1e1d-47f1-be3c-c681c9f12850

Why are Warren and Butler in separate districts?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would something like this get Dem votes on the commission?




I tried to keep districts as close to the map that was struck down as possible while addressing the court's complaints.

OH-01: Clinton +9/Biden +14, takes in most of 2 & 8's territory in Hamilton County, loses Warren County. Chabot relocates to K street.

OH-02: Trump +41/Trump +39, loses its chunk of Hamilton County, takes in Warren, takes in Clinton from 15 as 15 contracts, loses territory to the east to compensate

OH-03: Clinton+44/Biden +47, similar to before, Franklin County portions of Columbus and the bluest suburbs

OH-04: Trump +41/Trump +43, loses Delaware County to the new 15, picks up territory from 12 in the east to compensate

OH-05: Trump +23/Trump +25, some small reshuffling of its borders with 4 & 8

OH-06: Trump +19/Trump +23, identical to before

OH-07: Trump +25/Trump +25, takes in Medina County as 13 shifts east, takes in geographically closer towns in Summit County compared to the prior configuration

OH-08: Trump +35/Trump +34, loses most of its chunk of Hamilton County and takes in bits of 4, 5, and 15's territory to compensate

OH-09: Trump +2/Trump +4, identical to before

OH-10: Trump +6/Trump +4, identical to before

OH-11: Clinton +68/Biden +65, similar to before, takes in some western shore towns, 43% Black VAP

OH-12: Trump +31/Trump +34, drops south to pick up territory from 2 & 15

OH-13: Clinton +5/Biden +7, similar to before but loses Medina County and takes in more of Summit County to address court's complaints, Anthony Gonzalez is retiring anyways.

OH-14: Trump +8/Trump +8, similar to before, some town reshuffling to accommodate 13's shift

OH-15: Trump +5/Biden +2, because Delaware and Franklin combined are 40,000 short of exactly two CDs I think the court will be skeptical of any map that has them in 3+. This new configuration pairs Delaware and Madison counties with the northern, western, and southern suburbs of Columbus as well as some of the "reddest" parts of the city.

Once again, why are Butler and Warren in separate districts?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

Some county has to be attached to get to 4 senate districts worth of pop. Infact 2 really have to be attached for closer to equal pop.

Why did they not make that configuration with the WWC south Franklin county and Pickaway? That would have made way more sense.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

The State Senate seat, I mean.  A southern Franklin County sans Columbus + Pickaway seat would be a heavier lift.

But wouldn’t Republicans prefer that seat?