Predict Control of the Senate After 2018/20/22

[Klartext89]

2018: R, no serious discussion. Missouri and Indiana are easy pickups, ND with or without Heitkamp is also very possible GOP pickup. With Heller safe in a Midterm, Arizona not that competitive that Dems are dreaming about, we're at least at 55 GOP seats - and we haven't discussed about West Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Montana yet.

2020:

1. Trump/GOP winning White House: Not much change in the Senate then. Only 2 GOP seats in Clinton States, one Dem seat in a Trump State. I assume there won't be much changes.

2. Dem win White House: Some Dem gains (maybe Collins retires and Dem take over, maybe they can sweep Gardner away, maybe Tillis in NC if they really run the table. But hard to imagine a deep Red State going Dem at this point). But the GOP will nevertheless have a majority in the regions of 52-55 seats.

2022:

1. GOP White House: Dem will pick up a few seats. I could imagine Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and maybe an uphill battle victory in North Carolina. But not even Close to 51 seats.

2. Dem White House: Good bye Maggie Hassan, hard fight for Nevada+Colorado, easy GOP going in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Nobody talking about North Carolina.

R/R/R in all cases.

[Klartext89]

R/D/D make sense on paper, but I don't get it considering the context of 18. Let's say that year is R+4. That's 56, so losing all of Tillis, Gardner, and Ernst, AND keeping Shaheen's seat, would STILL result in only 53. At that point, you have to wait for 2022 and pray to God Hassan survives without Day and you can pick up any of the competitives from this year.

Well I think it will be only +2 R in 2018 also 2018 the R's are defending 24 seats to 9

McCaskill and Donnelly are DOA. Heitkamp, if she accepts Ag, will make it R+3. Only 2 R seats are remotely competitive in 2018.

I don't think Heitkamp will accept, but let's say she does, or she loses anyway along with Donnelly and McCaskill. Democrats beat Heller and Flake, that's R+1. 2020, Democrats take the presidency and take NC, CO, and one of GA/IA/AK/MT/ME/whatever. Not likely, but possible.

However I think we probably lose 2022 in that case, unless the gains in 2020 are huge.

Heller survived Obama 2012. This year, Nevada was close - with a massive Hispanic turnout, you won't see again in 2018. I doubt that he will be beaten, but ok, let's say it is possible. One pickup.

Arizona... Ok, Trump only won with 3.5 points. But, McCain did with 14 points, 70% of Voters were still White, Latinos aren't Blacks and their turnout won't be that huge in a midterm. I'm sorry, but no way.

I won't comment again on Indiana, Missouri etc, because I only have to wait till Election Day and I'll smile about it ;-)