Mississippi Megathread 2023

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Brandon Presley raised almost 6 million $ in the third quarter, a record for a MS Democrat:

https://desotocountynews.com/meet-the-candidates/presley-raises-5-6-million-in-third-quarter-breaks-fundraising-record/

I'm not sure he can win, but maybe it's gonna be closer than the polls say ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

If neither Reeves nor Presley win a majority (which is a possibility given the presence of an independent candidate on the ballot) then there will be a runoff on Nov. 28th

The new runoff rules are from a constitutional amendment passed by the Legislature and approved by voters in 2020.  Prior to the rule change, candidates had to win a majority of the vote and a majority of state house districts to be elected.  If no candidate won both, members of the state house would elect the governor in a contingent election.  This only happened once in state history, in 1999, when Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was elected governor in a party-line vote of the Legislature after winning 49.6% of the vote to Republican Mike Parker's 48.5%.  Both candidates had won 61 of Mississippi's 122 state house districts.

She has withdrawn and endorsed Presley, but her name is still on the ballot.

I doubt she gets more than 0.3% of the vote.

It's not much, but if it's extremely close, it could go to a runoff:

49.9% Presley
49.7% Reeves
  0.3% Independent
  0.1% write-ins

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51 Reeves
47 Presley
  2 Gwendolyn

Will be the final result.

Not bad for Presley, but I expected more ... even a win.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

All 82 Mississippi counties are releasing their final results now, 71 have posted them already.

https://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults_aspx/elections_results_2023_certified.aspx

Brandon Presley wins most of the late vote, which I assume are mail and provisional ballots.

For example, in Madison County, the 5th largest in Mississippi, Presley received an additional 1700 votes, Reeves 1300, compared to the NYT election night reporting.

This is the case in most counties.

And in Forrest County (Hattiesburg), Presley even flipped the whole county:

Now: 51-49 Presley (9100-9000 Presley)
NYT: 52-48 Reeves (8600-8300 Reeves)

The largest county Hinds is not official yet, but Presley has to gain thousands of additional votes there as well.

I think the final statewide results will be close to 51-48 Reeves, not 52-47 (New York Times election night coverage).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will NET gain additional 10.000 votes, maybe much more, with the late-arriving and provision ballots.

The trends from Madison and Forrest counties would even net him an additional 25.000 votes statewide, which would bring him within 10.000 of Reeves. Still not enough to force him below 50 percent, but a solid result.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Harrison County in the South (Biloxi) also released final results.

And with 40.000 total votes, Reeves added an additional 1.000 votes over election night, but Presley added 2.000 additional votes - netting 1.000 additional votes over Reeves.

800.000 votes were cast on election night, 40.000 from Harrison are one in twenty of the statewide votes.

So, based on the Harrison County trend, Presley should net over 20.000 additional votes against Reeves statewide.

The Madison County trend would give him 13.000 net additional votes, the Forrest County trend even additional 25.000 ... but it will be somewhere in between.

On election night, Reeves was 35.000 ahead of Presley.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0

Hinds and Rankin counties have not released their official results yet, with late and provision ballots.

Without these two, it will not be possible to make a statewide prediction for me - but there are at least thousands of votes in Hinds alone that Presley will net.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

What is the final margin expected to be?

Hi Arizona Ice Tea,

good that you ask:

I posted above that I expect Reeves' margin to fall by about half from what it was on election night, see New York Times reporting for more. It was about Reeves +35.000 votes on election night. But based on trends from 3 larger counties, Presley is on track to NET an additional 10.000 to 20.000 votes. But this may not be entirely possible to predict right now, because only 70 of the 82 counties have released final results so far. And the large counties Hinds and Rankin are still missing.

If Reeves' 51.6-47.0 margin from election night, or +4.6, is cut in half, it would result in a final margin of around +2.3 for him, but it will probably slightly larger, at around 50.8-48.0 - give or take 0.3% in either direction. I think the remaining 12 counties should post their results next week.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

How is it taking this long to count the last few ballots? Mississippi is not a big VBM state at all.

Also the craziest thing about Presley winning Forrest County is that this county is literally named for the founder of the KKK.

2 weeks to count the remaining votes is actually not so long.

Other states take much longer, for example California or Arizona, or Ohio or New York, who need 4 to 8 weeks after election day to publish final results.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

77 of the 82 counties in MS are now with official results.

Presley netted only 2300 additional votes in Hinds, which is likely not enough to get him to 48% (but by rounding he will).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

80 of 82 Mississippi counties have final results now.

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Final results (all 82 counties with official results):

418.233 Reeves (Rep.)
391.614 Presley (Dem.)
  11.153 Gray (Ind.)

821.000 Total Votes

50.94% Reeves
47.70% Presley
  1.36% Gray

2 counties have submitted revised results. I used those revised numbers for my table.

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Best and worst counties:

Reeves: 82.5% George, 10.9% Jefferson
Presley: 87.9% Jefferson, 15.7% George
Gray: 3.7% Wilkinson, 0.6% Noxubee

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Most votes (Top-5):

Reeves

Rankin
Harrison
DeSoto
Madison
Jackson

Presley

Hinds
Madison
Harrison
DeSoto
Rankin

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Since election night (51.6-47.0), Reeves lost 0.7% and Presley won an additional 0.7%

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

As other people have said, Mississippi should think about reforming their runoff procedure because of this:

If election night would have shown 50.6% for Reeves, he would be at 49.9% right now, with all votes counted.

But the runoff procedure already kicked in much earlier than today, with absentee and early voting.

A runoff should only be scheduled after the final results have been published.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

As other people have said, Mississippi should think about reforming their runoff procedure because of this:

If election night would have shown 50.6% for Reeves, he would be at 49.9% right now, with all votes counted.

But the runoff procedure already kicked in much earlier than today, with absentee and early voting.

A runoff should only be scheduled after the final results have been published.

general elections should not have runs off at all

I think they should: Trump or Biden for example could be elected next year with just 40% of the vote. Which wouldn't make any sense. There should be a runoff in all general elections in early December.