Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I have no inside information obviously, and fortunately, the invasion has not happened yet, so I am glad I was not proved seamlessly clairvoyant.

I know, you have not, but my question is rather why do you trust assessments from US *that* much, that you're even believe about the date [or that Russia is about to take Kiev's?]?

I am pessimistic because if it is all a bluff, I don't think Putin is going to get much out of it, and all these troops in place is a  very expensive enterprise to carry on for long periods.

I don't know how expensive that is, but Russia has gradually made build up in months now. Why wouldn't Putin afford wait month(s) more? Moreover, the price of oil has gone up by 10-25$ because of that, which means a lot of "extra" $$$ every day to Putin.

And again being no expert and with no inside information, my perception is that Russia could prevail militarily in rather short order. But maybe Putin has now decided that longer term subjugating Ukraine by force is just too risky. Maybe sanctions and other measures the West can and would take would be more devastating to Russia than I had perceived (my perception was to the contrary and would be also very costly to the West). I certainly hope so. I remain pessimistic however, and I suspect that the West will now accelerate measures to become less economically involved with Russia and dependent on its energy. Being willing to use military force to get your way in a context such a this, means that the country is just not one right now that you want in the same house, much less in the same bed. So in that sense, Putin's "antics" have already cost him.

I wonder how much of the current Russian mindset is a function of Putin and the "cult" of his personality, and likely to change when he departs (hopefully his "reign" will not be as long as Queen Elizabeth), and how much is endemic. Russia may no longer be an "evil  empire," but sadly it is saddled with a very evil man. It is sobering to think that for four years the 3 most powerful nations in the world were run by evil autocrats or would be autocrats. Finally, I am not a fan of Biden and find him or magical competence, but on Ukraine he has done well, and seems engaged and knowledgeable and measured, and kudos to him for that.

Addendum: The withdrawal feint appears to be just that, a feint. What is the point of Putin continuing to throw chips onto the table, if it is a but a bluff that is not going to get him any substantive concessions? That is what puts me in the doomer camp pretty much.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/594470-nato-chief-says-it-appears-russia-is-continuing-the-military-buildup

"any substantive concessions" - well, it's somewhat early to tell. Ukraine has already started to float about some concessions, which I reported in this post

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Vague in first place and backtracked later, but diplomats usually don't improvise. Test balloon?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1493116643572072451
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1493167291369984002

Moreover, EU reportedly press them to fullfil Minsk Agreements.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1493662744779894784
Moreover, the Ukraine's economy is reportedly (per Ukraine itself) gets hit hard by all the speculations. Weakening Ukraine's economy is one of Putin's main goals. _{In fact, it's one of the reasons why US wanted to kill NS2.}

https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1493841724673871876

Ukrainian officials are grateful for Western aid and assistance, while expressing genuine unease about a Russian invasion. But they’re also barely able to contain their frustration with Washington’s warnings of war.

Many here say they believe that instead of putting Moscow on notice, the warnings are playing directly into its hand — shaking confidence in Ukraine’s leadership and damaging the country’s fragile economy.

“It is not what the West and partners have promised us,” said Daria Kaleniuk, the executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, a Kyiv-based watchdog group. “They were saying there will be a swift, fast, strong reaction against Russia in case it continues its aggression as is happening now. And it’s Ukraine that is paying the cost.”

The business losses and the cost to Ukrainian taxpayers have been considerably less amusing. Airlines have canceled flights into Ukraine because of fears of an invasion and the U.S. skyrocketing insurance costs. On Sunday, the government created a $590 million fund to guarantee flights over Ukrainian territory, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Fitch ratings agency revised down the country’s outlook to “stable” from “positive” nearly two weeks ago. And at least one international airline, the Netherlands’ KLM, has suspended flights to the country.

“Our economy and financial situation are bearing losses. This is a consequence of information hysteria, which is actively supported by some officials and the media in Western countries,” said Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the tax committee in the Ukrainian parliament. “There are virtually no grounds to suggest that there are more threats to the escalation of the conflict in the east today than at any other time in the last eight years.”

But the overwhelming message from the Ukrainian government is a frustration with the relentless vicissitudes of Western warnings. The on-again, off-again panic has led to a kind of “boy-who-cried-wolf” resignation — especially amongst a population that has dealt with Russian aggression for centuries.

“Now [the U.S.] has raised the bar again, but in my opinion, they have raised the bar of this threat to the maximum,” said Pavlo Kukhta, a Ukrainian economist and the former acting minister of economic development, trade and agriculture. “Keeping the whole country in such a state — ‘tomorrow the Russians attack’ — is impossible because people just get used to it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I already posted it, but imo worth to post it again. The head of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party blames American FAKE NEWS.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1493939541710974982

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

Why would anyone take any intelligence agencies at face value...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

Biden is basically inviting Putin to invade Ukraine. Unbelievable 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1494017619145502725

A senior official said President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering holding a referendum that could keep his country from joining NATO, fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s key demands.

The prospects for such a vote were uncertain and ambiguous, and many Ukrainians were likely to bitterly oppose any sign of concessions to Russia, but the fact that it was being floated at all showed that Mr. Putin’s buildup of forces near Ukraine’s borders could enable him to achieve his objectives without launching a full-scale invasion.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1493990148006109185

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

I believe, it has more to do with ME/Hamas/Syria/Iran than visas.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

While US is fearmongering, Putin does this>

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1493828248601567232

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's not unusual at all. Here for instance latest report form OSCE

https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports
https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-16%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/KThomasDC/status/1494317551333085188

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BigSerg has the same sources as Biden it seems:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494318081962872833

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494104754137542659

Very British thing to do.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I see this is the new Trump Inauguration phenomenon of the dates constantly moving

I've heard that Russia will invade on the day Trump is reinstated the night from 30th to 31st February.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/aspeciale/status/1494369723634667526

Praying for Super Mario.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Latest news:
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1494648894847864834
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1494619728312217607

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Does anyone else here find it possible that if Ukraine is invaded, they surrender Donetsk and surrounding territories without even fighting? That’s what Romania did with Bessarabia when the Soviets Occupied it in 1940.

De facto, we already "control" Donetsk.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

Like what

CARAVANS!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352

😬

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Latest news:
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352

I shouldn’t have to say this, but obviously Ukraine is not about to start an offensive against the breakaways with a massive Russian army on their border ready to invade. What would possibly be the point of this if Russia was bluffing? Mass evacuations are a hideously disruptive and expensive thing to do, especially if it goes on for any length of time.

Well, I don't believe there actually will be a mass evacuation. But it seems like Putin raises the stakes>>

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494704111736008705

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

How come BigSerg has better intelligence than Biden? 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1494743813830717454


LOL Hahaha. I actually checked, and it's true           

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

He said, too, that Russia is going to take Kiev...

We have reason to believe Russian forces intend to attack Ukraine in the coming days. We believe they intend to attack Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv