NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

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http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/08/23/whos-the-boss-star-tony-danza-weighs-run-for-mayor/

Not sure if this has any legitimacy to it, but if Tony Danza runs I'll probably support him. Or Kelsey Grammar, if he runs.

I don't know about Tony Danza being a politician. I like the guy as an actor though.

I seem to recall that he's a Republican.

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I don't care what the polls day, this woman isn't winning sh_t.

I think those comments make me think more favorably of Quinn, tbh.

I don't live in New York City, obviously, but same here.

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I'm thinking this puts De Blasio over 40%.

Just came here to post this.

Bloomberg must have a truly tin ear for politics these days if he doesn't see exactly how this'll kind of statement will play out the weekend before the Democratic primary.

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Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

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Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

Cuomo is crafty and doesn't seem to care about principle.  He knows that Democrats will vote for him no matter what.  So, his best strategy is to give Republicans what they want and appease the suburban swing voter at the expense of Democrats in New York City.  If there's a way to take money from homeless teens in the Bronx and turn it into a property tax cut for a middle class person in Long Island, he wants to do it. 

De Blasio might get in the way of that strategy with his liberal views.  He may whine about poor people or suggest raising taxes on the rich.  Cuomo doesn't want any part of that.

Interesting, though given the political and fundraising clout the NY mayor would have for it's state party, wouldn't he instead back Thompson to get the same basic lack of wave-making?

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First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

Surprising support for stop and frisk.

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First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

More Preliminary Exit Polling:

-Almost 75% of Democratic primary voters say the city should move away from Bloomberg's policies.
-About 33% of Democratic primary voters say they were seeking a candidate who could "bring needed change."
-A narrow majority of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Bloomberg handled his 12 years in office.
-About 30% of Democratic primary voters say city schools improved in the Bloomberg years.

These appear to be strong signs for Blasio. Anyone willing to hazard a guess as to how these numbers affect the odds of him making it to 40%?

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Did de Blasio win every borough?

Looks like it. Although Staten Island is very close. Italians liked Thompson.

From my rough calculation of the numbers listed on the neighborhood map, I agree BDB won in narrowly over Thompson. Big margins on the North Shore did it for him.

Speaking as someone who remembers NYC's race-based tribal politics of the late 80's & early 90's, these results are such a sea change. The Williamsburg Hasidim voting overwhelmingly for a black guy. Ditto for the white neighborhoods on the Island. Bensonhurst is now a largely Asian neighborhood. The white Italian cleans up in Harlem and other black neighborhoods against said black opponent. Neat!

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According to the NYT's neighborhood results map, 98% of the vote is reported. Scrolling over the neighborhoods to see where the remaining outstanding votes are offers some hope for Thompson.

In DBD's favor, only 84% of Carroll Garden--which as someone pointed out, is the area he represented in City Council--is in, and he's dominating with over a 55% share so far (and Thompson running a weak 3rd, fwiw).

Van Cordtland Village in northern Bronx has a similar share in, where DeBlasio currently matches his citywide total of 40.2%. There are a number of neighborhoods with over 90% reported, and although he's leading in almost all, there are a number he's falling short of 40% (e.g. Richmond Hill--he's leading with 97% in, but with only a 33.6% share). Still, it appears there are more such neighborhoods where he's substantially enough over 40% (e.g. Morningside Heights, Dumbo) to probably make a net percentage gain from where he currently stands, though the cumulative aid from VCV and these mostly-reported neighborhoods combined will likely be minimal.

From there, things start to look brighter for Thompson. The worst "offenders" for outstanding votes are a strip of neighborhoods from Washington Heights (South) running east across the river to East Tremont (Highbridge, Mount Hope and East/West Concourse). They have anywhere from 78% to only 53% reported according to the map. DeBlasio is probably still narrowly beating Thompson in the total vote of these combined 5 neighborhoods, but he's only reaching the mid to high 30's, percentage-wise.

If the reported trends continue, Carroll Gardens and the other mostly reported neighborhoods won't be enough to keep his vote % from dropping when those (relatively) Thompson-friendly neighborhoods fully report. Considering how close the margin is, it may very well be enough to ultimately drop DeBlasio below 40%.

Again, this is assuming the numbers on the NYT's neighborhood map is correct, and keep in mind their precinct map has numerous obvious errors (like Cedrico getting over 97% of the vote in an 1100+ vote precinct, etc.).

EDIT: Believe it or not, the map's listing of some of these neighborhood's reported vote in is actually being updated regularly. The reported vote for some of the Bronx neighborhoods I mentioned just jumped several percentage points. DeBlasio maintains at 40.2% overall for now....

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Just checked the precinct map for Williamsburg in the Comptroller's race. The Hasidem do NOT like Spitzer apparantly! I'm sure Stringer being Jewish didn't help, but he was getting mid-to-low single digits.

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Good analysys cinyc. I didn't mention the absetees as, unlike outstanding votes from largely reported neighborhoods, they're much harder to predict likely trends.

That said, anyone have any insight as to likely trends for absentees and/or provisionals?

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I think you're right.

Yeah, like I said earlier the NYT precinct map has a number of mistakes like that, though that's probably their most egregious.

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According to the NYT's neighborhood results map, 98% of the vote is reported. Scrolling over the neighborhoods to see where the remaining outstanding votes are offers some hope for Thompson.

In DBD's favor, only 84% of Carroll Garden--which as someone pointed out, is the area he represented in City Council--is in, and he's dominating with over a 55% share so far (and Thompson running a weak 3rd, fwiw).

Van Cordtland Village in northern Bronx has a similar share in, where DeBlasio currently matches his citywide total of 40.2%. There are a number of neighborhoods with over 90% reported, and although he's leading in almost all, there are a number he's falling short of 40% (e.g. Richmond Hill--he's leading with 97% in, but with only a 33.6% share). Still, it appears there are more such neighborhoods where he's substantially enough over 40% (e.g. Morningside Heights, Dumbo) to probably make a net percentage gain from where he currently stands, though the cumulative aid from VCV and these mostly-reported neighborhoods combined will likely be minimal.

From there, things start to look brighter for Thompson. The worst "offenders" for outstanding votes are a strip of neighborhoods from Washington Heights (South) running east across the river to East Tremont (Highbridge, Mount Hope and East/West Concourse). They have anywhere from 78% to only 53% reported according to the map. DeBlasio is probably still narrowly beating Thompson in the total vote of these combined 5 neighborhoods, but he's only reaching the mid to high 30's, percentage-wise.

If the reported trends continue, Carroll Gardens and the other mostly reported neighborhoods won't be enough to keep his vote % from dropping when those (relatively) Thompson-friendly neighborhoods fully report. Considering how close the margin is, it may very well be enough to ultimately drop DeBlasio below 40%.

Again, this is assuming the numbers on the NYT's neighborhood map is correct, and keep in mind their precinct map has numerous obvious errors (like Cedrico getting over 97% of the vote in an 1100+ vote precinct, etc.).

EDIT: Believe it or not, the map's listing of some of these neighborhood's reported vote in is actually being updated regularly. The reported vote for some of the Bronx neighborhoods I mentioned just jumped several percentage points. DeBlasio maintains at 40.2% overall for now....

There are also at least 19,000 absentee votes that haven't been counted at all and won't be until Monday.  De Blasio may do better or worse than his citywide average in the absentees.  They don't always fall the same way as the election day vote.  There also should be some provisional ballots which may or may not be counted in the end.

But I think de Blasio will end up with over 40% and avoid a runoff.  He's at 40.24% with 99% in.  There simply weren't many votes in the missing Bronx precincts (where de Blasio performed poorly) compared with the other precincts that were out.  And assuming there are 19,000 good absentees, de Blasio would only need to win 32% of them to stay above 40%.  If all 47,000 outstanding absentees are returned and Democratic and valid,  he'd need to win 37% of them.  So the range is 32-37%, with the likely needed result on the lower end because not all absentees will be returned, Democratic and vaild.

Update: Per same map, 99% of vote in and BDB up to 40.3%. Washington Heights South still only 78% reported with DeBlasio at 38.1%, but the Bronx neighborhoods across the river I'd mentioned before are all now fully reported. More importantly, Van Cortlandt Village and Carroll Gardens still only 84% in. The diminishing number of 90+% reporting neighborhoods are at this point probably a wash or MAYBE a SLIGHT disadvantage to BDB staying above 40%.

Looking grimmer for Thompson.

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WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

While this MAY be true with absentess--since as Cinyc noted NY is an for-cause absentee state, thus absentee voters will be disproportionately older (though I'm not sure what effect that might play on this race--I don't see why that would be the case for paper ballots. If the paper ballots are cast by election day voters unlucky enough to encounter a non-functioning mechanical booth, then their ballots should be largely consistent (albeit not necessary exact) with other counts ballots from that neighborhood.

The real key is determining what neighborhoods had a disproportionate share of paper ballots still needing counted. Anyone have any dirt on that?

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"BMD ballots", Cinyc?

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NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
De Blasio (D) 65%
Lhota (R) 22%
Carrion (I) 3%
Undecided 9%

Likely voters; MoE +/- 3.9%

Jeez. At this rate Lhota will have trouble even carrying Staten Island.

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Quinnipiac also dropped a poll today, echoing the NBC/WSJ poll, putting de Blasio up 66-25%.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1955

Wow. So much for wondering if WSJ was an outlier.

This'll tighten some, but again the race now looks like over bragging rights for the Island.

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De Blasio is +12% among whites and performing like Obama among blacks. It's over.

I can't really see Lhota losing Staten Island though.

Looking at the last several mayoral elections (1997 on), SI has run an average of + low-mid 20's R compared to the citywide vote, and that's including the Conservative party line. Even by those standards Lhota is in trouble. Furthermore, the last two elections the combined Rep/Conservative vote (Bloomburg didn't have the Con nod either time) ran only about 20.1% and 17.9% respectively ahead of the combinded citywide percentage, and the Democratic candidate (under all party lines) only ran in the high teens behind their citywide percentage.

These recent numbers are a substantial drop from the R/Con PVI Staten Island had in the 90's and 2001. I don't know if that drop is reflective of changing demographics and politics on the Island, or some particular distaste Islanders had (have) for Bloomburg compared to other Republicans that Lhota can counter the trend on (though remember, I'm including the Conservative candidate's % in these numbers, so Lhota's increased appeal to conservatives turned off by Bloomy's liberal-moderate stances is already factored in).

Either way, according to these numbers Lhota is going to have get greater than a +20% PVI off the Island to carry it. Even if he can close the race by a few points by November he'll still need to do about as well as Bloomburg and the Con candidate combined did in SI against Thompson in 09. So yes, I think he could realistically lose it.

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Joe Lhota: de Blasio is a communist, blah blah blah.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/joe-lhota-bill-de-blasio-new-york-mayor-race-2013-97270.html?hp=r4

The more I read about de Blasio, the more I like him.

This will play SOOOO well for Lhota running in NYC.

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Wow. And among the subsamples Lhota voters are substantially more likely to switch than DeBlasio's. The only group viewing BDB unfavorably is registered Republicans.

There better be a serious swing and/or MoE in play or even the Island is gone.

A couple things needed to break Lhota's way for him to have a prayer. Carrion's independent run needed to catch steam to syphon DeBlasio supporters, he needed to turn stop and frisk into an issue for swing voters to actually base their votes on, and he needed to run as a Guiliani-style moderate.

Every one of these things utterly fizzled.

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We'll probably see the return of tribal voting in a big way in this runoff.

James is beating Squadron 60%-40% with 87% in.   Squadron takes Manhattan.  James takes all of the outer boroughs.  The AP just called it for James.

Have a good link for the results? James winning SI is a bit surprising.

Yeah, it appears Squadron won more precints, but the area James won along the north shore a) had significantly greater turn out relative to other parts of the island; and b) went for James by killer margins.

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We'll probably be seeing more of Spitzer:

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If he'd been willing to run for Public Advocate to start his rehabilitation, he probably would've won easily.

Of course with the huge poll leads he had for Comptroller and as close a loss it turned out to be, he can't be faulted for taking that leap.

Without commenting on his sleaziness of course......

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Ray Kelly was supposedly close to running - http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/ray-kelly-nyc-mayor-race-michael-bloomberg-99296.html?hp=f2

Good lord...

From my read on this the plan was Kelly to run as an independent. It's hard to see how that would've done much more than canibalize Lhota's support without making too big a ding in BDB's numbers. If he'd run as a Republican Castimadis would've stepped aside reportedly, and he'd surely have swept Lhota in the primary (if he even stayed in).

But that's as far as it would've gone. Kelly's a more popular figure than Lhota, but it's not like Lhota's terrible poll numbers stem from gross unlikability as opposed to DeBlasio's current tremendous popularity. More importantly, voters are utterly ready for a change from Bloomburg, even those who approve of Hizzoner. Kelly would've done better than Lhota, sure, but a 65% approval rating is easier to maintain when you're not actually running for office. As the campaign went on he'd still be tarred with being essentially another term for Bloomburg, and a defender of the unpopular stop and frisk policy. He'd carry the Island, and reduce DeBlasio's margin to a mere landslide rather than a Christiesque romp like it's going to be tonight, but that's about it.

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De Blasio is going to win by a way bigger margin than Christie tonight.

By several points I'd say. Hence the "esque" descriptor.

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Do the NYC voters know that they just elected a Red Sox fan?

4 realz?