Conservative leadership election

[Oryxslayer]

I think we might be heading for a general election if a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson is elected leader. Think about it. Currently the Conservative Party and the DUP have a combined 323 seats, which means that they can barely outvote the opposition (counting out Sinn Fein). A few Tory MPs have signaled that they would resign the whip if the party embraced a hard Brexit, so in this scenario whoever becomes leader wouldn't have enough votes to become PM.

TBH the hard brexit types probably want a new election. They expect to unite the Brexit vote and see the Remain vote divide between a insurgent Corbyn, a resurgent Lib-Dems, and of course the SNP. In their minds, this would give them a new majority to pursue their policies free of parliament.
It also allows the to nominate/drop/renominate a caucus more acceptable to the Hard Brexit ideology.

Of course, this is what May tried to do. Can't say if second try is the charm.

[Oryxslayer]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

Got sum totals?

[Oryxslayer]

I'll give my two cents to say: go Rory Stewart!

The Tory leadership contest is entertaining as a show, but one can imagine it's something more serious than a vaudeville act. Are Tories going to elect Boris Johnson as leader? Really?

Trump & Johnson, what a pair of comedians!

If bojo is one of the two that goes to the membership, he will win. On some level then he might have already won because of the high first round selections.

Now is this really a bad thing for the Tories? Well, even though I hate the guy, I tend to be very bullish on his prospects. The man has that polarizing Teflon that is so common these days in nations that have progressed beyond the need to fight for the political center. He's, right now, popular with the leave voters. Despite the fact that this phenomenon is associated with Trump and other right-wingers, it is by no means unique to them or held exclusively by them. If the man can get the Brexit vote into his corner and the opposition remains divided then...

[Oryxslayer]

Does no one at the Tory party understand all this could have been done in one day, without shenanigans, with ranked ballot voting? Rank candidates in order. Machine tells you who wins while maximising voter satisfaction.
They're wasting so much time for nothing with this baby version of it.

Well, from the US perspective this seems very quick

That said, I think Tories would presumably say that they want the inter-ballot jockeying, that they'd like to see how candidates respond to changes in the dynamics and that they are open to the idea of lesser-ranked candidates endorsing better-ranked ones. I'm not saying this is correct, but I think this would be the argument.

There's also time for someone to screw up when the spotlight decides to shine upon their candidacy. One could argue that's what happened to Stewart, and everyone is hoping something like this happens to Johnson, since it's the only way he doesn't become PM.

[Oryxslayer]

I think you guys are stuck in your own personal biases, which is understandable considering who exactly Boris is. You need to look past these biases, look past the polling (which I will deconstruct in a moment), and look at the fundamentals right now. As much as I hate it, the fundamentals point to Boris winning the next election, perhaps by a good amount.

Okay, so why do you say loo at the fundamentals? Well, both the parties and the country right now are in a period of realignment. Close to 50% of the country is up in the air with some prior party loyalties but limited attachment now. The polling therefore, while accurately reflecting the situation presently, will likely not reflect the situation in an election environment. They will probably not even reflect the situation in a month. This is not even talking about the seat projections, which can be just tossed straight out the window. With so many voters in the air, and such a limited idea of where they are up in the air, no party may have any strongholds left. We can place reasonable guesses - Lib Dems Greater London and suburbs, Brexit E/NE for instance, but they will just be that, guesses.

So what exactly are the fundamentals. Well first there is Boris. He is a man cut from the cloth of the polarizing atmosphere that seems so prevalent in the modern world. Being and remaining PM is his primary goal, and to do that he has and will exploit every wedge issue or polarizing phenomenon. it has mostly been successful; yesterday YouGov came out with a poll asking if Boris should answer for the recent allegations. Those who would never vote for a Tory - 80-20 he should answer. Those who did last cycle - 75-25 he should refuse. It is important to remember that the Tories also have control of the leavers of power - they decide policy and what direction popular issues are going to take.

Next up there is Farage and the Brexit party. Overall, the Brexit party has three big weaknesses that will shape their future. First off, the Brexit and UKIP have always been one man projects. Nobody cares about Brexit candidates X, Y, and Z, its all about Farage. This is a good thing when one is running a personal campaign across the nation, think the EU elections. But when one has to run on a seat by seat basis and put out manifestos...he has floundered. See UKIPs track record of only ever getting a Tory defector elected. See Peterborough, a top 100 leave seat giving Brexit a poor result. His best result was the brexit referendum, once again a national campaign. This flows naturally into the second problem which is a lack of MPs. No MPs, no influence on the debate. Farage can only scream from the sidelines and change the issues, not actually see them to fulfillment. Finally, the greatest problem for the Brexit party is time. The further the EU result seeps into the past, the more  the Brexit party struggles to argue for its existence. The party has and will fail in the by-elections, the party appears as a sore loser appealing the Peterborough result right now, the party will have to contend with Boris occupying the same ideological position as them soon enough.

Finally, there is the opposition. Labour has a fundamental problem that all the initiative appears to be with the Lib-Dems. The lib-Dems are getting a new leader while Labour is stuck with corbyn. The Lib-dems continue to drive the Remain debate further to the extremes, and Labour is playing catch up. Labour of course cannot take the most extreme position at whatever time - partly because Corbyn, partly because of their northern voters. The Lib-dems are going to have a good result in the  Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, either winning it or coming close. Labour and the Lib-Dems teaming up, to form a joint 'Progressive Alliance' is impossible considering how the CHUK defectors are being 'admired' to the Lib-Dems, and that's ignoring the ideological distance on issues more pressing to corbyn. Therefore, there will always be two remain parties - one for the partisans and one stuck between a remain base and a leave leader.

So what is the likely outcome of these fundamentals? Well, since Boris wants to keep the PM office, he has and will embrace the position of the majority of the electorate on the right, a position carved out by the Brexit party changing the debate. No deal. Maybe not immediately, but unless the EU gives him what he wants, Boris will do what it takes to win (and keep his coveted PM job) and hug the Brexit Party to death. Whats the point after all of a party out of power, a party that has failed to win, a party that's whole message is one that has now been coopted by the party of power? Especially once the Remain Tories revolt (and then get deselected) in October, leaving Boris's Conservatives as the sole, pure, ideological pillar in Westminster defending the option held by a (~40%, another YouGov Poll) plurality of the electorate. The ideological distance betwen Brexit and the Conservatives is not momentous, and considering how easy it was for the tories to 'endorse' Brexit in the EU elections, think about how easy it will be for voters to return. This in many ways is the fate of national-campaign third parties in FPTP elections, they change the debate by forcing the big two to adjust their positions towards yours to win your voters, but can never get elected on their own merits.

On the other side of the coin, there cannot be the consolidation seen among the Leave voters. The gap as stated is far wider between Labour and the Lib-Dems, and the Lib-Dems have MPs right now to prove their viability. If the electorate continues to polarize, Labour is trapped between the Lib-Dems occupying a position they cannot take, and the Leave front to their right. And any election caused by the government failing to obtain No Deal will be purely on Brexit alone, its Brexit position verses the rest. But this situation is only if polarization continues, and Labour has some loyal voters in parts of London and the North who would never desert for the Lib-Dems or would never go for a hard Remain party.

So we are left with a situation that while chaotic, has some fundamentals that point towards a band of specific outcomes. There is a reason why the EU is now preparing for No Deal, they have similarly ran the calculus and found that the Tories crashing out right now or another GE producing a unified  Leave front are the likely options. Its a sorry situation, I hate it as someone who backed remain, but its just the direction I see things going. Especially since parliamentary brexit so far has been a tale of people pursuing their rational (Game Theory wise) interests, and Boris's rational interest right now is just to win, win, win, whatever the cost may be.

I needed to get that off my chest as someone who has been watching this sh**t for a long time, and has no horse in the race.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

I'm just going to answer one point, because I think everything else flows from this point and this point alone: when will the Next GE be and what circumstances do you think said GE will be triggered by?

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

[Oryxslayer]

snip

I think said GE will be triggered when Boris tries for no deal in October, after 'exhausting' or at least pretending to exhaust all other options. The remainer Tories bolt, an extension is granted for a GE period, and its a multitude of remainer policies vs Boris. In this regard, Farage would have already succeeded, the Conservatives have made a bed of No Deal and they would have to sleep in it if they win the election. They have also taken the plunge and carved of their arm that backed remain, for what would ideally This hypothetical GE would also be called purely over Brexit, with the cliff literally right there, all other party policies that do not tie back to Brexit would have to take a back seat. But I will say that I perhaps may have underestimated Corbyn's ability to change...or maybe you are overestimating it. I dunno, Labour infighting is harder to follow then Conservative infighting here in the states.

Now if you think the GE will occur under different circumstances, then different fundamentals may surface. But the situation reflected in the polls right now is untenable and in so much flux that something has to emerge from all this rampant destructive energy.

I also will say that your point on Boris himself is a little off. You see the man as waffling, I see him as consistently trying to follow his voters popular will. This of course leads to 'cracking down and backing down' as seen in the present White House administration. You end up caught between appeasing one side of the base and then angering another, and end up doing nothing but piss off those who would never support you. But when the base is so unified around a single policy, No Deal...

I don't think I ever said Johnson was waffling. I see him as clueless, or at least hapless, and no longer the supposedly charismatic 'man of the people' figure his supporters believe him to me. He might have been that in 2012, but his association with Brexit has toxified his persona. He risks doing the same thing by pursuing anything other than a no-deal exit on October 31st.

On that point, I think your hypothetical election scenario is quite plausible, at least in the events that would lead up to it. However, I don't think it would play out as you depict. If Johnson went full bore for a no-deal exit he would be stopped by Parliament one way or another. That confrontation would pry loose a significant chunk of the Tory's moderate support - enough that even a pact with the Brexit Party would not be enough to prevent heavy losses for the Tories across the South, West, and in Scotland.

Also, I think the chances of Johnson getting credit for trying but failing to go for no-deal before October 31st are quite slim. Leavers will be apoplectic that their precious Brexit was delayed *again*, and Johnson's reputation as a self-seeker will be way too difficult to ignore when they try to figure out who to blame. Meanwhile, Farage will have no incentive to let up on him in such a situation. He (Farage) could quite easily convince himself he will ride a wave of Leaver anger into Parliament in such a situation; he managed something similar in the EU elections, after all, so why not go for the big prize?

Everything about Brexit up to now has revealed how implosive and cannablistic its advocates become as soon as they have a chance to actually implement it. I'm struggling to see how this round will be any different - save that it could mean Corbyn becomes PM and finally puts the whole thing to bed.

*Shrugs. We will see what happens in 5 weeks or more. As long as we all recognize that the polls/projections right now are useless, and the shear scope of the destructive energy means that any small thing can produce massive effects on both party policy and overall results. Under FPTP this destruction cannot be maintained forever, eventually there has to be some re-consolidation towards 2 of 4, but who knows when that will happen or who will be the 2.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.

Number 1's importance isn't even comparable to the other two. The Overton Window has shifted so much these past three years (Thanks to Farage and Tory incompetence) that recently a poll found close to 40% of the country supported No Deal. That's not just a overwhelming majority of Leave voters, it's a majority so large that if a politician claims to represent Brexit these days it's required to support No Deal in some form.

[Oryxslayer]

I've said this before, but now it's official: the UK has had its three worst Prime Ministers in history all serve consecutively. I'm calling that now. History will recognize this decade as the Kingdom's most embarrassing.

Really? Worse than Chamberlain & Eden?

Arguably. Chamberlain and Eden are overly criticised, Cameron unduly lauded.

Once everyone is dead, and it's time to write the history books, Cameron is going to be raked over the coals. His legacy is a strategy of politics that repeatedly placed the long-term stability of the UK up for wager at the gambling table - all for the slim opportunity to gain conservative/lose labour seats and rid himself of a future with constant coalitions. But for now, he gets a pass as the most respectable PM in memory.