Why Pittenger's seat is going to flip...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

Yeah MT Treasurer is such a leftwinger. Oh wait, he isn't, and you just made a stupid strawman.

And Trump only won this district by 12%. Do you really think republicans are going to do exactly the same as they did in 2016, even though they clearly are polling at way lower numbers (mostly due to health care & the fact that a republican pres with 42% approval holds office), and democrats won PA-18 and nearly won an insanely old & conservative AZ-08? If so, you are the one who is out of your damn mind

I'm doubting democrats really make any gains whatsoever in the south but you seem pretty delusional as to how bad 2018 can be for the GOP. There's an average swing of 17 points in every special election. 47% of voters in AZ-08 were registered Republicans yet 18% of them voted for a random democrat who has never served elected office before.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pittenger will win re-election. The left on this forum thinks virtually every seat is going to be competitive. It is ridiculous.

Yes, some of the charlotte suburbs are moderate and are trending liberal and yes the Lumbee are in this seat as well but... heavily Republican Union County is a major portion of this seat as well. Some of the other counties in this district trended towards Trump in 2016. Including Richmond County (Trump won here) and Robeson County (Trump won here as well; parts of this county are in this district and include the Lumbee).

I say Pittenger wins by 10-12%.

Yeah MT Treasurer is such a leftwinger. Oh wait, he isn't, and you just made a stupid strawman.

And Trump only won this district by 12%. Do you really think republicans are going to do exactly the same as they did in 2016, even though they clearly are polling at way lower numbers (mostly due to health care & the fact that a republican pres with 42% approval holds office), and democrats won PA-18 and nearly won an insanely old & conservative AZ-08? If so, you are the one who is out of your damn mind

I'm doubting democrats really make any gains whatsoever in the south but you seem pretty delusional as to how bad 2018 can be for the GOP. There's an average swing of 17 points in every special election. 47% of voters in AZ-08 were registered Republicans yet 18% of them voted for a random democrat who has never served elected office before.

[/b]

Wait, did we ever get an exit poll saying that was the amount of crossover voters?

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AZ8SpecialElectionExitPoll.pdf

Tipinerni won independents 62-34 and won 18% of republicans



I mean like, if Tipinerni can do this well, it's clear all the democrats have to do to win is shout health care at their top of their lungs. Especially when you consider the fact that premiums go up right before election day....

And the worst news for republicans is democrats generally (but not always) have better recruitment this cycle.