2020 College Football Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[Donerail]

Friday, November 27th
#15 Iowa State @ #20 Texas
Nebraska @ Iowa
#2 Notre Dame @ #25 North Carolina
UCF @ South Florida
The Big Game: STANFORD
#9 Oregon @ Oregon State

Saturday, November 28th
Maryland @ #12 Indiana
#24 Tulsa @ Houston
Penn State @ Michigan
Arkansas @ Missouri
Kent State @ Buffalo
Ball State @ Toledo
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State
Minnesota @ #18 Wisconsin
#22 Auburn @ #1 Alabama
Colorado @ #19 USC
Pittsburgh @ #4 Clemson
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
San Jose State @ Boise State
Rutgers @ Purdue
LSU @ #5 Texas A&M
Arizona @ UCLA
#14 Oklahoma @ West Virginia
Troy @ Appalachian State

[Donerail]

For all the hype about the first woman to play in a P5 game, we all overlooked the possibility that Vandy's offense won't get into field goal range

[Donerail]

Week 14

Friday, December 4th
Louisiana @ Appalachian State

Saturday, December 5th
#5 Texas A&M @ #22 Auburn (Texas A&M is not a top 5 team, but Auburn is not a top 30 team, so here we are)
#8 Northwestern @ Minnesota (glad we finally had Northwestern exposed last week so I don't have to care now)
West Virginia @ #13 Iowa State
#17 Texas @ Kansas State
Liberty @ #20 Coastal Carolina
#23 Oklahoma State @ TCU
Ball State @ Central Michigan
Fresno State @ Nevada
Penn State @ Rutgers
Boston College @ Virginia
Miami @ Duke ()
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Arkansas @ Missouri
#4 Ohio State @ Michigan State
Memphis @ Tulane
Kent State @ Miami (OH)
Nebraska @ Purdue
Bowling Green @ Akron (Quite possibly the worst game of the season! Very fun)
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan
#12 Indiana @ #16 Wisconsin
Buffalo @ Ohio
Maryland @ Michigan
Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern

Sunday, December 6th
Washington State @ #18 USC

[Donerail]

Saturday, December 5th
#8 Northwestern @ Minnesota

Sunday, December 6th
Washington State @ #18 USC

One cancellation and one scheduling change this morning to our slate. (The Northwestern game being canceled has eliminated all scenarios where Minnesota, Iowa, or Illinois win the Big Ten West). UAB at Middle Tennessee has also been added to next Sunday.

[Donerail]

App State is a terrible pick. You guys are tripping.

That's game is almost a coin toss.

And it's in some awful weather this year, as is traditional — 38 and pouring. Long snapper's already sent a ball about ten yards over the Louisiana punter's head.

EDIT: twice.

[Donerail]

Zaven Collins has been transformational — Montgomery was on track to get fired this season, and they certainly weren't supposed to break the top 25. 96-yard game-winning pick-six in double overtime is about as Heisman a moment as you can ask for. He'd be my vote. Unfortunately for him, he plays the wrong position for the wrong school in the wrong conference and most of his games have been on ESPN+.

[Donerail]

Week 15

Friday, December 11th
Arizona State @ Arizona
Nevada "@" San José State (in Las Vegas)

Saturday, December 12th
Purdue @ #12 Indiana
#16 Wisconsin @ #19 Iowa
#22 Washington @ #23 Oregon
Minnesota @ Nebraska
Oregon State "@" STANFORD (in Corvallis, OR)
California @ Washington State
#8 Georgia @ Mizzou
Illinois @ #14 Northwestern
Houston @ Memphis
Western Michigan @ Ball State
Ohio @ Kent State
#18 Coastal Carolina @ Troy
Central Michigan @ Toledo
#17 North Carolina @ #10 Miami (FL)
Navy @ Army
Michigan State @ Penn State
#7 Cincinnati @ #24 Tulsa
Duke @ Florida State
Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern
#20 USC @ UCLA
Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Utah State @ Colorado State
San Diego State @ #13 BYU

[Donerail]

If Cincinnati wins the first round, it might be smart for them to lobby the AAC to treat it as a de facto conference title game (I assume Tulsa won't object since they'd have no chance of the sweep). Would open the 19th for a new game against whoever's free that weekend, which may be more persuasive for the Committee than two wins over Tulsa — BYU's the most obvious matchup since they don't have anything scheduled for that weekend, but you could maybe work something out with one of the ranked schools that won't be playing that weekend too (Indiana? Miami?).

[Donerail]

Would anyone who is still alive for a playoff position other than Texas A&M even want to play them?

Remember, Texas A&M needs the win to leapfrog the SEC Championship game loser (if that's Alabama), or a second ACC Team (Notre Dame/Clemson). They'd probably have the most to gain from playing Cincinnati (or BYU/Liberty/Coastal Carolina)

A&M's not gonna play someone out of conference, especially since they'd lose to Cincinnati — too much to lose and not enough to gain. The ideal pairing is with a school that 1. can play out of conference games and 2. could use a signature win to get a better bowl berth. Someone like Miami or UNC probably makes the most sense, since the ACC has permitted out of conference games and only one of those teams (probably Miami) can get the ACC autobid for the Orange. If Clemson or ND is left out of the playoff, they get the Orange bowl berth and Miami/UNC are stuck contending with all the other bubble teams for the at-large spots in the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach; rolling the dice on a win against Cincinnati makes sense if you think you'd otherwise be relegated to the Duke's Mayo Bowl.

[Donerail]

Could the SEC be suspending play altogether (which might not just include football, but basketball and other winter/spring sports as well)?

No. The SEC will stop playing sports when hell freezes over. The announcement is about their new TV deal with the worldwide leader, which will make them ~$300 million a year.

[Donerail]

Sean Lewis would be a tremendous fit for the Illinois job. He's a Chicago native with Big Ten experience (he played at Wisconsin) who's done an incredible job at Kent State, in part because he's been able to recruit Illinois very well. Illinois is a tough job, but if he can go to a bowl at Kent State he can do it anywhere.

Of course, B1G boosters are nothing if not stupid, so I'm sure they'll pass up the exciting young (er, "unproven") option for a nice safe bet like Bret Bielema.

[Donerail]

Week 16
UAB @ Marshall
Ball State vs Buffalo (put undefeated conference champ Buffalo in the playoff, who cares)
Purdue @ Indiana
Nebraska @ Rutgers
Washington @ #15 USC
Oregon @ #15 USC
Arizona @ Cal
#14 Northwestern vs #4 Ohio State
#5 Texas A&M @ Tennessee
#11 Oklahoma vs #7 Iowa State
Vanderbilt @ #9 Georgia
Florida State @ Wake Forest
Washington State @ Utah (Utah possibly the best unranked team in the country — unfortunate result of only playing a 5-game schedule and dropping a couple games they probably should've won)
Air Force @ Army
#19 Louisiana @ #13 Coastal Carolina
#25 Missouri @ Mississippi State
Ole Miss @ LSU
#3 Clemson vs #2 Notre Dame
Minnesota @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin another team in the Utah category)
Boise State vs San Jose State
Illinois @ Penn State
Michigan @ Iowa
Michigan State @ Maryland
#1 Alabama vs #6 Florida
#24 Tulsa @ #8 Cincinnati
Stanford @ UCLA
Oregon vs Colorado
Arizona State @ Oregon State

[Donerail]

https://www.alreporter.com/2020/12/14/malzahn-fired-au-coaching-search-focused-on-cristobal-napier-freeze/

Alabama Reporter has a list of targets for Auburn's next Head Coach. They are:

Oregon Head Coach Mario Cristobal

Louisiana Head Coach Billy Napier

Liberty Head Coach Hugh Freeze

Ole Miss Head Coach Lane Kiffin.

Who would be the best hire for Auburn?

Strange that the article doesn't mention current DC Kevin Steele, who is sounding more and more like the frontrunner for the job — well-respected coach and recruiter who is very popular with an influential set of boosters. Spending $21 million just to turn around and hire your own DC would be a very Auburn move. Or they turn around and spend another $8 mil to go get Cristobal.

[Donerail]

I'll be shocked if it's not Freeze at Auburn.

No AD wants to have both Freeze and Bruce Pearl to deal with. They're dumb, but they're not stupid. Gonna be Steele or Cristobal (1A & 1B), outside chance of Billy Napier.

[Donerail]

Playoff proposal, upon rumors that they're considering moving the Rose Bowl:
#1 Alabama vs #4 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl
#2 Clemson vs “#3” Texas A&M in Unnamed Semifinal Game #2 (Arlington, TX)
Ohio State vs USC in the Rose Bowl

-ACC & SEC win because they get to have fans in the stands
-California wins because it gets to keep its asinine COVID rules
-No one gets to complain about a playoff team only playing five games
-Ohio State & USC get to go to the actual Rose Bowl (does Ohio State get to claim a national championship after beating USC? Probably)
-Rose Bowl is Big 10 vs Pac-12 so the traditionalists are happy

Everyone wins, except Cincinnati

[Donerail]

I'm just now entering picks (it's been a busy week) and have a couple of questions:

Nebraska @ Rutgers

Was this game ever on the list?  Nobody else has it.

I just did every non-canceled game this weekend — if it's not on the list it's the only one.

[Donerail]

Sean Lewis would be a tremendous fit for the Illinois job. [words]

Of course, B1G boosters are nothing if not stupid, so I'm sure they'll pass up the exciting young (er, "unproven") option for a nice safe bet like Bret Bielema.

I was right but I'm not happy about it

[Donerail]

so TAMU got beaten up by Alabama, Notre Dame got beaten up by Clemson, but they will leave undefeated Cincy out.

Worse than that, I think, given that we know whoever they choose will be going up against Alabama. We've seen A&M get blown out and we know what would happen to Notre Dame — it's not (just) that they're undeserving, it's that it'd be terrible television. Cincy would at least be interesting.

[Donerail]

I'd be ahead if Chip Kelly hadn't gone for 2 in 2 OT

Homer pick pays off!

The selection committee chose the most popular team over the team who earned it. Any team that makes it through the SEC with only 1 loss deserves to play for the title, period.

Getting blown out by 28 against Bama does not confer upon a team a right to get blown out by 28 against Bama again.

[Donerail]

The selection committee chose the most popular team over the team who earned it. Any team that makes it through the SEC with only 1 loss deserves to play for the title, period.

Getting blown out by 28 against Bama does not confer upon a team a right to get blown out by 28 against Bama again.

You could say literally the exact same thing about Faux Irish. The beat a depleted Clemson, got wrung out when they met again, and will likely have the floor wiped with them if they meet again (which they won't, they will also get blown out by Bama.)

The worst and most mind-numbingly stupid fan base in football is also one of the most numerous, so they keep getting invited to the playoffs despite being clearly inferior. F*** ND. I don't give a rat's ass about Texas A&M but they would have been a better choice, so was Cincinnati.

No, no, no. Notre Dame had better wins (over an admittedly Lawrence-less Clemson and a commanding road win over UNC) than A&M (a squeaker over a 3-loss UF and an otherwise very unimpressive schedule — best win other than UF is probably over Auburn? lol). Plus their embarrassing loss was slightly more embarrassing than Notre Dame's; saying otherwise is just recency bias.

I agree that Notre Dame fans are very annoying and the committee is at some level considering that they're a bigger national draw, but A&M is not gonna hang with these teams either — there's enough separation between the top three teams and the rest that any of them would probably get demolished, and it's not obvious to me that Notre Dame is somehow less deserving than A&M. (Cincinnati would obviously be preferable, but that was never really a serious possibility.)

[Donerail]

Tennessee is out of the liberty bowl, they should let Army take their place.

Well, Tennessee doesn't get to make that call. It's in the SEC bowl pool, so the bowl committee is contractually obligated to offer the spot to an SEC school if there's one remaining. Since there's no win requirement this year, right of first refusal goes to winless, coachless Vanderbilt, which just so happens to be a short 3-hour drive across the state from the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.

That said, Vandy could have been in the Birmingham Bowl and declined, so it's likely they'll opt out of this one too. Might be better to move Mississippi State to the Liberty & open a spot for Army in the Armed Forces Bowl (they're on the same day), but who knows if that's logistically possible.

[Donerail]

The Auburn search has gone, uh, poorly — it sounds like they are attaching some ridiculous conditions to the job, which has led to some well-regarded G5 coaches (Napier, Bill Clark of UAB) to turn down the job. Reading between the lines, a pack of boosters got the consensus necessary to axe Malzahn and most want DC Kevin Steele, but they can't muster enough support for Steele; as a result, they've resorted to looking for someone else but imposing various conditions (like retaining Steele) that make the job unattractive to any coach who wants to bring in his own people. This apparently was enough to deter Napier and Clark but not Boise's Bryan Harsin.

[Donerail]

I'm sure Steve Sarkisian would have said yes if asked.

Sark turned down the interview. No one with better options wants a job where they'll be coaching under the kind of restrictions Auburn was reportedly trying to impose.

Who's the most likely person to replace Harsin at Boise State? I'm honestly thinking Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell is a possible hire there.

Why?? Chadwell's spent his whole career in the South — no chance he leaves for a job in the Mountain West. Most likely candidates are Oregon DC Andy Avalos (former DC at Boise), Cowboys OC Kellen Moore (played QB at Boise), Falcons OC Dirk Koetter (former Boise coach who may be looking for a retirement job), or someone with success in the region like Jeff Choate at Montana State or Brent Brennan at SJSU. It's a very appealing but tricky job — they're probably leaving that conference and need a good recruiter to balance out their talent-sparse region.

[Donerail]

Who's the most likely person to replace Harsin at Boise State? I'm honestly thinking Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell is a possible hire there.

Why?? Chadwell's spent his whole career in the South — no chance he leaves for a job in the Mountain West. Most likely candidates are Oregon DC Andy Avalos (former DC at Boise), Cowboys OC Kellen Moore (played QB at Boise), Falcons OC Dirk Koetter (former Boise coach who may be looking for a retirement job), or someone with success in the region like Jeff Choate at Montana State or Brent Brennan at SJSU. It's a very appealing but tricky job — they're probably leaving that conference and need a good recruiter to balance out their talent-sparse region.

The last time Boise State hired a head coach, they hired Harsin, who had previously been the head coach at Arkansas State and an assistant at Texas.

It's not unrealistic to think Chadwell's a plausible hire.

Harsin grew up in Boise, played there, and was their OC for five years.

[Donerail]

Liberty vs #12 Coastal Carolina
South Carolina vs UAB
#19 Louisiana vs UTSA
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State
#21 Oklahoma State vs #18 Miami (FL)
#20 Texas vs Colorado
Wake Forest vs Wisconsin
Iowa vs Missouri
#6 Oklahoma vs #7 Florida (very close decision tilted by Pitts opting out)
Tulsa vs Mississippi State
Ball State vs #22 San José State
West Virginia vs Army
Arkansas vs TCU
#8 Cincinnati vs #9 Georgia
Auburn vs#14 Northwestern
#4 Notre Dame vs #1 Alabama
#3 Ohio State vs #2 Clemson
#23 North Carolina State vs Kentucky
Ole Miss vs #11 Indiana
#25 Oregon vs #10 Iowa State
#5 Texas A&M vs #13 North Carolina (UNC is a better team but they'll be without their leading rusher, receiver & tackler)