Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

Fairfax changed its reporting method this year to centralize everything and add an extra verification step.  It will be very late.  In the extreme case, it may very well report all at once the morning after. 

[Chips]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

He's probably talking about a case where Youngkin is somehow winning or close to winning Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits, is competitive in Suffolk City and is coming within 20 points in places like Newport News. Not sure how likely all that is but if this somehow becomes reality then yes, it would be a pretty dang good sign Youngkin is probably on track to win statewide.

[Skill and Chance]

The bottom line is McAuliffe needs something to break the all education, all the time news cycle before election day. 

[jamestroll]

The bottom line is McAuliffe needs something to break the all education, all the time news cycle before election day. 

Getting a bit late in the game.

At this point I wonder if the people who said VA was only dem due to trump were right.

Nova will stay Democratic but Warner 14 type wins in Fairfax can not counter the rural areas anymore.

[jamestroll]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

He's probably talking about a case where Youngkin is somehow winning or close to winning Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits, is competitive in Suffolk City and is coming within 20 points in places like Newport News. Not sure how likely all that is but if this somehow becomes reality then yes, it would be a pretty dang good sign Youngkin is probably on track to win statewide.

Yes exactly.  I dont expect youngkin to win Hampton roads metro.

VIRIGNIA Beach is the place to watch. If its like 52 to 47 Youngkin.. lol I wouldn't be worried. But if it hits 57.. tmac might as well have his concession speech ready.

[Non Swing Voter]

This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

[Duke of York]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

He's probably talking about a case where Youngkin is somehow winning or close to winning Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits, is competitive in Suffolk City and is coming within 20 points in places like Newport News. Not sure how likely all that is but if this somehow becomes reality then yes, it would be a pretty dang good sign Youngkin is probably on track to win statewide.

Yes exactly.  I dont expect youngkin to win Hampton roads metro.

VIRIGNIA Beach is the place to watch. If its like 52 to 47 Youngkin.. lol I wouldn't be worried. But if it hits 57.. tmac might as well have his concession speech ready.

I doubt he gets 57 percent in Virginia Beach. That hasn't happened since 2009.

[Xing]

This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

Welcome to Atlas!

[Non Swing Voter]

This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

Welcome to Atlas!

Yeah I know, but this takes the cake.  Really, it's just peak Atlas. 

[jamestroll]

This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

Welcome to Atlas!

Yeah I know, but this takes the cake.  Really, it's just peak Atlas. 

If youngkin can't get 57% in the beach he won't win.

[Chips]

This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

Welcome to Atlas!

Yeah I know, but this takes the cake.  Really, it's just peak Atlas.  

If youngkin can't get 57% in the beach he won't win.

I'd say Youngkin needs about 52% to have a good shot. Highly unlikely he hits 57%.

[jamestroll]

I think I'll spend the last week and half canvassing, text banking and phone banking on my free time instead of panicking online.

I need to do my part to stop trumpism even if youngkin ultimately wins

[Chips]

I think I'll spend the last week and half canvassing, text banking and phone banking on my free time instead of panicking online.

I need to do my part to stop trumpism even if youngkin ultimately wins

IDK why but it's always nice to see someone on here be engaged in actual political activity on the ground.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Safe D before this poll, and Safe D after.




Nuff said

Not falling for the Virginia game

this

[wbrocks67]

The bottom line is McAuliffe needs something to break the all education, all the time news cycle before election day. 

Even if that line was hurting T-Mac, him putting that ad out blunted it and I'm sure stopped any momentum Youngkin had on the issue.

With that said, with all the talk of education and CRT and parents, the Monmouth poll still only had Youngkin and T-Mac tied on education. Youngkin clearly not running away with that issue.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

-Gamble with actual money

It's only a gamble, if you think, that Youngkin, if fact, does have  "realistic chance of winning". Otherwise, it's almost free money given the odds you have. Unless your definition of not having a"realistic chance of winning" is like 15-20%?

[Spectator]

The worst part about all this is that everyone is still going to treat Virginia like a swing state every gubernatorial election just by virtue of it being slightly less blue than New Jersey, and the media wants to sell a horse race. And again and again idiots will fall for it despite Virginia delivering the same boring, predictable moderate sized Democrat win.

[Xing]

-Gamble with actual money

It's only a gamble, if you think, that Youngkin, if fact, does have  "realistic chance of winning". Otherwise, it's almost free money given the odds you have. Unless your definition of not having a"realistic chance of winning" is like 15-20%?

gam·ble
/ˈɡambəl/

verb
1.
play games of chance for money; bet.

Betting money is betting money. Even if I were to bet on Wyoming going Republican in 2024, something that I am absolutely positive will happen, I would still be betting and/or gambling, which is not an activity I will partake in, nor one I would recommend.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Technically, yes, but gamble/betting usually involve some risk, which according to you almost doesn't exist in this case.

Betting for WY getting red would get you like 0.01% return, thus you have a risk of losing money on average despite high probability.
Betting for McAuliffe would give you like 20% returns, which given your claims (no real chance of winning) is almost free money. Stats 101.

Whatever, this leads nowhere.

[Lief 🗽]

If Youngkin wins, he will not allow Virginia’s electoral votes to be awarded to the Democratic candidate in 2024. They are making it crystal clear at this point.
https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1451218546596458496?s=21

[Dan the Roman]

Youngkin potentially winning Democratic gloomism is probably the best possible narrative for the final nine days of early voting in NVA.

So I think the perception Youngkin is surging is going to dominate the final two weeks of this race, not the issues. And that means that while those issues may have driven swing voters to Youngkin, and I think red avatars here underestimated the degree of long-term partisan commitment some of those voters had, if there is a Democratic enthusiasm problem there is a good chance it will be solved in the next nine days. Or if it isn't we will know.

But if we start seeing 75K a day next week we will know something is happening.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Youngkin potentially winning Democratic gloomism is probably the best possible narrative for the final nine days of early voting in NVA.

So I think the perception Youngkin is surging is going to dominate the final two weeks of this race, not the issues. And that means that while those issues may have driven swing voters to Youngkin, and I think red avatars here underestimated the degree of long-term partisan commitment some of those voters had, if there is a Democratic enthusiasm problem there is a good chance it will be solved in the next nine days. Or if it isn't we will know.

But if we start seeing 75K a day next week we will know something is happening.

I've been saying this all along. As irritating as the media still treating Virginia as a swing state is, it at least can help avert complacency. That very well could have aided in the California recall too. And if that comes to fruition it provides at least some hope for 2022, because Democrats should be scared s***less, and that being instilled this early could help make the year less dreadful. That might be wishful thinking though and getting way too ahead of oruselves. Let's just see how this race and New Jersey go first, I guess.

[LtNOWIS]

Youngkin potentially winning Democratic gloomism is probably the best possible narrative for the final nine days of early voting in NVA.

So I think the perception Youngkin is surging is going to dominate the final two weeks of this race, not the issues. And that means that while those issues may have driven swing voters to Youngkin, and I think red avatars here underestimated the degree of long-term partisan commitment some of those voters had, if there is a Democratic enthusiasm problem there is a good chance it will be solved in the next nine days. Or if it isn't we will know.

But if we start seeing 75K a day next week we will know something is happening.

I've been saying this all along. As irritating as the media still treating Virginia as a swing state is, it at least can help avert complacency. That very well could have aided in the California recall too. And if that comes to fruition it provides at least some hope for 2022, because Democrats should be scared s***less, and that being instilled this early could help make the year less dreadful. That might be wishful thinking though and getting way too ahead of oruselves. Let's just see how this race and New Jersey go first, I guess.

Yeah, you can contrast that with the thinking in 2014. "Mark Warner is a beloved former governor, Virginians just adore him. Just look at how he thrashed Gilmore in 2008. There's absolutely no way he could ever lose to anyone."

And then due to that complacency, Dems came within a percentage point of losing.

[Non Swing Voter]

You guys are acting like it's still 2010.  A low turnout election actually BENEFITS democrats now that they are the party of educated/wealthy suburbs. 

[SnowLabrador]

You guys are acting like it's still 2010.  A low turnout election actually BENEFITS democrats now that they are the party of educated/wealthy suburbs. 

That's not proven yet. I'll believe it when I see it.