WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

He’s not in until he officially announces.

Fair, but if he's already talking about the NRSC, I don't see how he doesn't officially enter the race anytime soon.

[Ferguson97]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

[SnowLabrador]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

I could understand it for Democrats in Safe R districts, simply because they likely receive death threats all the time from the "Second Amendment people." But I'm pretty surprised the GOP hasn't been able to get a serious candidate for this race yet. It'll still be a close race, of course, regardless of who Baldwin's opponent is, but they could do a lot better than David Clarke.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

I could understand it for Democrats in Safe R districts, simply because they likely receive death threats all the time from the "Second Amendment people." But I'm pretty surprised the GOP hasn't been able to get a serious candidate for this race yet. It'll still be a close race, of course, regardless of who Baldwin's opponent is, but they could do a lot better than David Clarke.

Also up until this point, the WI GOP has been very competent, both in winning elections at the state level and making power grabs. For instance, even though he ultimately lost, Walker's 2018 performance was very respectable.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

[Senator Incitatus]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

I wonder if Clarke isn't the sort who would be receptive to a federal appointment in exchange for staying out of the race.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

Reverse coattails don't exist.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

Reverse coattails don't exist.

In an extreme scenario they can, but it can work both ways.

1. Say Clarke runs with Trump enthusiastic endorsement to the point where voters associate the 2. Clarke starts having problem after problem making him very unlikeable but Trump still stands by his side, then some voters will associate Clarke’s problems with Trump and gain a less favorable view of Trump.

2. Clarke has big problems, but Trump distances himself from Clarke and looks more sane by comparison, giving some voters “permission” to split ticket Baldwin-Trump because the Overton window has been shifted and Trump looks more reasonable by comparison.

Obv these are both very tiny groups, but in a close election it can matter, and good chance WI is very close again.

[MATTROSE94]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

Reverse coattails don't exist.

They happened to some extent in North Carolina in 2020, as Cal Cunningham’s scandal likely impacted Joe Biden’s losing margin there by maybe 10,000 votes. 2024 I don’t see any reverse coattail scenarios happening. There will be a lot of split ticket Biden-Republican voters, but very few split ticket Trump-Democrat voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cal Cunningham and Gideon lost due to Tara Reade and Biden scandal but it wasn't enough to def Biden, it was 9 percentage pts unemployment that's why we got stimulus checks, Cunningham didn't sink Biden the reverse is true because Collins surged after Tara Reade


Married white women not men are the swing group

[Galeel]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Republicans do try this all the time, they candidates they get just lose to the crazies. That, combined with the perception of Baldwin as being a strong incumbent dissuades other challengers.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Campaigns are expensive and time* consuming. Not everyone can just stop their lives for six months on something they know is pointless.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Campaigns are expensive and one consuming. Not everyone can just stop their lives for six months on something they know is pointless.

Which is often why when you do get a rando state legislator, it's cause they lost out locally. Redistricting, coalition shifts, or factional infighting renders their chances of reelection low, which raises the comparative value of a long-shot statewide campaign. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Campaigns are expensive and one consuming. Not everyone can just stop their lives for six months on something they know is pointless.

Which is often why when you do get a rando state legislator, it's cause they lost out locally. Redistricting, coalition shifts, or factional infighting renders their chances of reelection low, which raises the comparative value of a long-shot statewide campaign. 

I also have a “theory” a lot of them do it as a way to “retire with a bang”. I think Val Demings and/or Charlie Crist could fall into this category. Others might be Themis Klarides in CT, and Bob McDermott in HI

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm a little late in sharing this, but this *totally serious* likely candidate for senate decided to shout out members of Election Twitter (for whatever reason)
https://twitter.com/jtoscano22/status/1704277033277345800?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

I'm a little late in sharing this, but this *totally serious* likely candidate for senate decided to shout out members of Election Twitter (for whatever reason)
https://twitter.com/jtoscano22/status/1704277033277345800?s=20

Am I the only one who finds this amusing? The production value is so low!

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm a little late in sharing this, but this *totally serious* likely candidate for senate decided to shout out members of Election Twitter (for whatever reason)
https://twitter.com/jtoscano22/status/1704277033277345800?s=20

Pretty sure this was a paid thing from Cameo

[The Mikado]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

[The Mikado]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).

I'm thinking in the best case, Democrats hold MT/OH, and flip FL due to the abortion referendum, age depolarization, and Social Security. Emerson already shows Brown/Tester outrunning Biden by probably enough, and it also shows FL very close while Trump is winning in the other swing states comfortably.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).

Yeah Trump needs 52 seats for a proper working majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).

Yeah Trump needs 52 seats for a proper working majority.

Lol Trump isn't gonna win WI with Ds in control of redistricting

[MT Treasurer]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.