America's Maverick Part 2: Madame President

[2016]

NATO activating article 5 despite Iraq not being a NATO Country is quite interesting.

Article 5 being activated after the 9/11 Attacks was justified because the United States was attacked on their Homeland.

This Decision looks a lot more grey to me. We'll see what happens longterm but it potentially great and big News for the Ukraine assuming Putin potentially invades Crimea during a 2nd Clinton Term.

[2016]

Blitzer and King can talk all they want about the Map.

The fact though remains that between 2008 and 2012 the Country experienced Major Demographic Changes particularly among Hispanics (Romney only won 27 % Nationally in the OTL in 2012) and these changes alone could ensure Clintons Re-Election.

Oregon (7), Nevada (6), Colorado (9) and New Mexico (5) alone will get Hillary reelected not to mention that she could win Virginia (13) and Florida (29).

Things ain't looking very rosy for Republicans.

[2016]

Hillary Clinton gets Re-Elected I think based on the Demographic Changes that occured between 2008-2012.

Republicans learn their lesson and Florida Governor Marco Rubio runs after winning Re-Election in 2014.

Ironically I predict the GE in 2016 will be Rubio (Republican) versus Trump (Democratic).

[2016]

Indeed, this is the end of Kamala Harris Political Career at least what this TL is concerned.

Rougly 2 1/2 Months to the Iowa Caucuses now!

[2016]

House Speaker John A. Boehner is playing a dangerous Game here. If he doesn't pass the Recommendations into Law and the Economy starts to tank, possibly getting into a Recession then it's going to be blamed on Republicans and not Hillary Clinton.

I think Hillary is still in a very strong position to be Re-Election because unlike George W. Bush Republicans haven't found a Candidate to appeal to Minorities. That's precisely the reason the 2008 Election was so close.

[2016]

This Electoral Reform is fantastic!

That being said what will be done if the margin is 0,25 %, a Quarter of a 1 %. Manual Recount I would suggest!

Since you brought up 1976 maybe Clinton wins by a narrow Carter-like margin, then becomes Jimmy Carter 2.0 between 2013-2016 resulting in massive GOP Wins.

I still think FL Governor Rubio will run in 2016 once he has rattled home Accomplishments in the Sunshine State.

[2016]

Jindal is likely going to be the Republican Nominee for President but he's also likely to lose to President Hillary Clinton in the General Election.

Clinton probably wins Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida because of the Hispanic Vote. Florida alone which has 29 Electoral Votes in 2012 would end the Race effectivly. Governor Rubio & Senator Bush have to campaign hard there for Senator Jindal.

[2016]

2008 Map



Here is my guess on the States that Hillary lost in 2008 that will be voting for her this time:

Oregon
Colorado
New Mexico
New Hampshire

potentially Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Senator Jindal has indeed a very uphill climb to oust her.

[2016]

I would not be surprised if Senator Jindal does indeed pick Carly Fiorina. He has to somehow close the Gender Gap somewhat otherwise Republicans get clobbered.

Fiorina is also nearly 15-20 years younger compared to Vice President Rockefeller.

[2016]

My Thoughts on this Initial Battleground Map:

It's all good what Blitzer & King talking about but President Clinton does have multiple pathways to win Re-Election. She doesn't necessarily need either PA (20) or OH (18). Let's say hypothetically speaking Jindal wins those. That would drop Clinton down to 227-195.

Hillary Clinton can get reelected by winning VA (13), FL (29) and CO (9) and NV (6) which would put her well over 270. What do these 4 States have in Common: A massive influx of Hispanic Voters. Unless Jindal can make inroads with them I just can't see how he wins. Loudoun County + Prince William County in Northern Virginia had a massive influx of Hispanic Voters between 2008 and 2012.

In Florida there is no Jeb Bush Magic on the Ballot this year to help Senator Jindal.

In Colorado the surrounding suburban Counties around Denver like Adams, Araphaoe, Jefferson, Boulder and Larimer could provide Clinton with a boost to win the State not to mention Clark County in Nevada.

[2016]

This Map will almost certainly be reversed after the DNC. Virginia is not a Lean R State anymore given the changing Demographics in Northern VA.

[2016]

As expected Senator Jindal is now in a hole. He faces 3 absolute MUST-WIN-STATES: Florida (29), Virginia (13) and Ohio (18). He can't win without those 3 and I deem it as highly unlikely that he wins all 3.

Clinton actually has a chance to end this early if she takes Florida where "Other" Hispanics now outnumber Cuban Hispanics.

Then Senator George W. Bush got 39 % of the Hispanic Vote in 2008 and the Election was a Tie. I doubt Jindal can match that Number.

[2016]

Senator Jindal needs a Major altercation of this Race and some States will move a bit back and forth during the Debates but not in a big way.

That being said I am fairly confident that Hillary wins Nevada and Colorado. That would bring her to 252 at that Point she can win it with Ohio (18) or Pennsylvania (20) or a combination of VA (13) and WV (5). You would think she carries VP Rockefellers Home State.

[2016]

Looks like Hillary was a little bit at sleep during that 1st Debate! I expect her to come out punchy in the 2nd Debate though.

The only significant change between Pre and Post Debate Electoral Maps is that usually Red leaning Kentucky has moved towards Republicans so Senator Jindal gets 8 more Electoral Votes.

He still is in a very precarious position though as Clinton has many more Options to get to the 270 Electoral Votes she needs to get re-elected and she does seem decently popular as well. I actually expect Hillarys Job Approval be over 50 % come E-Day.

[2016]

Pennsylvania moving out of the Toss Up Category and into the Lean Democratic Column is a pretty big blow to Republicans and Senator Jindal.

Hillary is now at 251 and while CNN still has Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) as Toss Ups given the explosion of Hispanic Voters in Clark County, NV and the surrounding Suburban Counties around Denver like Adams, Araphaoe and Jefferson I think Clinton wins those States meaning she would be at 266 and would need only 1 more State to get re-elected all while Senator Jindal has to draw an Insight Straight and sweep the remaining Eastern Battleground States.

The fact that Ohio, Florida and Virginia are still Toss Ups is not good for Senator Jindal either. This could be a rout for Hillary if she wins even one of those 3 States.

[2016]

The much bigger Headline besides Iowa moving back to the LEAN DEMOCRAT Column is that President Hillary Clinton is polling at 50 % Nationwide which would suggest she is at or over 50 % in many of the Toss Up States heading into Election Day. That is very bad News for Senator Jindal and potentially Down-Ballot Republicans as it could have a trickle down effect.

If you want to beat an Incumbent President you have to get that person below 50 % first. Looks like it's not happening for Senator Jindal.

I'll be watching Results out of Florida & Virginia as they close early and I wouldn't be surprised if Hispanic Voters carry President Clinton to victory there.

[2016]

Election Night 2012
President Hillary Clinton vs Senator Bobby Jindal

My Predictions
Popular Vote: Clinton 52 / Jindal 47 / Others 1
Electoral College: Clinton 337 / Jindal 201

Senator Jindal takes Missouri & Arkansas
President Clinton takes Nevada (by winning Washoe & Clark Counties), Colorado (by winning Jefferson, Adams, Araphaoe Counties), Florida (South FL Hispanics/Puerto Ricans + she will do better in the Tampa/St. Pete Areas compared to 4 years ago), Virginia (NoVa Suburbs like Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax will provide a boost for Hillary + she will run more even in the Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk Area), West Virginia (which will be the closest State in the Presidential Race) and Ohio.

Republicans narrowly hold the House.

Senate
Nebraska: Deb Fischer Wins
Michigan: Senator James Blanchard Wins
Montana: Governor Jon Tester Wins
Ohio: Former Rep. John Kasich Wins. I think this will be a split Decision with Hillary taking Ohios' 18 EC Votes and Kasich will get elected to the Senate because Ohioans will view Sherrod Brown as too liberal
Tennessee: Lt. Governor Ramsey Wins
Wisconsin: Representative Tammy Baldwin Wins
Washington: Senator Jay Inslee narrowly gets re-elected

Maryland: State Attorney General Doug Gansler Wins
Missouri: Split Decision here. State Attorney General Jay Nixon has enough crossover & moderate credentials in the Rual Areas to knock off Senator Jim Talent while Senator Bobby Jindal takes Missouris' 10 EC Votes
Nevada: Split Decision here as well: Hillary takes Nevadas' 6 EC Votes and Senator Dean Heller by virtue of winning Washoe County narrowly gets re-elected.
Rhode Island: Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts Wins. Senator Chaffee despite being a Moderate is basically facing the same dilemma Senator Scott Brown faced in the OTL when he had to run against Elizabeth Warren in a Presidential Year. Very problematic for him when Hillary wins the State with over 60 % of the Vote.

Virginia: This is the Race I mostly disagree on and could be a potential big Upset despite it being rated as Lean R. I'd say Kaine wins by less than 20,000 Votes.

Here are all the Senate Seats up for Re-Election in 2012:

Governors
Missouri: Bekki Cook Wins
Montana: Steve Bullock Wins
North Carolina: Pat McCrory Wins
Indiana: Mike Pence Wins
Vermont: Peter Shumlin Wins
Washington State: Rob McKenna Wins; Republicans will finally win the Governors Mansion there as McKenna successfully distanced himself from Republicans in Congress and the top of the Ticket.

Going to be an interesting Night no doubt about it.

[2016]

Hillary now at 51 % to 46 %. This was probably the Final CNN/ORC Poll before the Election.

Yup, I think she has this given the early Vote that has already being counted but not yet announced. Remember: Florida counts pretty quick and so does Virginia & Ohio. In Colorado maybe 70 % of the Vote is presumably in as well, Nevada the same.

Jindal needs some overwhelming support from Late Deciders to pull off the Election and I don't see it.

Can't wait for the first Exit Polls tomorrow!

[2016]

Senator Jindal leading the Male Vote by 1 (50-49) while President Clinton leading the Female Vote by 9 (54-45) in these earlish Exit Polls is probably everything you need to know.

It does Point to a 51-46 or 52-47 National lead for Clinton.

Given that in every Battleground State Women are likely voting more than Men this is Hillarys Race to lose I think.

[2016]

So Senator Jindal seems to have a better Night thus far then anticipated. That being said OHIO is the ballgame and it looks like I might be right with a split Decision there with Clinton taking the 18 EC Votes while former Representative John Kasich could be elected to the Senate.

And if I were the Clinton Campaign I wouldn't write of FLORIDA either. Yes, there will be more Vote coming in from the Panhandle but there will also be more vote coming in from the Southeastern portion of the State. It's a combination of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties that could erase any deficit Senator Jindal gets out of the Panhandle. And if Clinton does lead in Pinellas (St. Pete) and Hillsborough (Tampa) I just don't see her losing the State. It will be very close, less than 100K either way.

Hillary also seems to perform well enough in Appalachia which keeps West Virginia and Virginia as Toss Ups.

Jindal needs a Trifecta of FL, OH, VA + CO to have a chance at the Presidency.

[2016]

Here is the State of Play heading into the 10pm ET Poll Closings:

If Clinton takes, as expected, the Pacific Coast States of Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), and Washington State (12) later tonight she is 241. Assuming she wins Wisconsin (10) which CNN had leaning her way in their Final Electoral Map before the Election she gets to 251. If she then takes Ohio (18) where she is leading that gets her to 269. At that Point she only needs one more State to win while Jindal has to run the table to sent it into the House.

I think though Clinton wins either Nevada or Colorado since they have quite a different Hispanic Population compared to Florida + the Denver Suburbs and Clark & Washoe Counties are more favorable to her.

Interesting: If Senator Jindal does eek out a win in Hillsborough County, Florida it could be the first time the County does not vote with the Winner of the Presidential Election.

[2016]

The Clinton Midwestern Firewall consisting of Minnesota (10), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (20) held up for her. Ohio (18) was probably the biggest target for the Clinton Campaign heading into the 2012 Election Year knowing that if she would pull out a victory there she would ensure herself Re-Election.

Some lessons needed to be learned by both Parties though:

#1 The Democratic Party Brand isn't that strong. Many Democratic Statewide Candidates, with a few Excemptions, underperforming Hillary so it's more about her then about Democrats.

#2 I know Florida and Virginia haven't been called but this would be a Disappointment for Hillary not getting them. The last 10 % in the Sunshine State are probably Democratic-leaning Votes but it looks like that won't be enough to overcome the Jindal lead. Senator Jindal should sent Governor Rubio and Senator Jeb Bush a big "Thank You" for pulling that State out. Looks it will be by a 75,000-80,000 Vote margin which brings me to Ana Navarro. Someone should ask her if Florida is now permanently gone for Democrats given it voted for former President McCain twice, then Texas Senator Bush and now Louisiana Senator Jindal.
As far as Virginia is concerned the margin might be even tighter then in Florida when all is said and done. Fairfax County is likely going to decide it. Looking ahead Democrats probably do need to win Virginia to win the Election in 2016.

#3 The fact that the strong Walker/Ryan brand was unable to carry either the 10 Electoral Votes in Wisconsin or the Senate Race has to be a big disappointment for Republicans.

#4 Republicans need to do a better job reaching out to Minorities particularly Hispanics. I said at the beginning of the 2012 Election Year Hillary would be re-elected because of the Hispanic Vote and if she does carry Colorado and Nevada which seems more likely than not at this Point I will proven to be correct on this.

Finally, wouldn't it be something if the State of her Running Mate, VP Rockefeller puts Clinton over the top. They should be close finishing the Count there. Must be exciting times at Hillarys HQ ahead of the 11pm Poll Closing.

[2016]

Congratulations to President Hillary Clinton getting re-elected as President. This is quite a feet considering the Country was and still is at War and the uncertainty about the Nations Economy.

While the Presidential Race is decided there is still quite a lot of Real Estate when it comes to the remaining Battleground States and most importantly Senate Races.

As expected former Rep. John Kasich beat Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio who will be a one-termer.

That being said I expect this loss by Democrats to be cancelled out by the Missouri State Attorney General Jay Nixon who is likely going to unseat Senator Jim Talent as Talent only won by the skin of his teeth in 2006. (Keep in mind that Nixon won two landslide Victories for Governor in the OTL).

As far as the Presidential Race in Missouri is concerned the St. Louis & Kansas City Metro Areas are among the last Votes to be counted which will likely lift President Clinton over Senator Jindal.

I expect Hillary Clinton to carry the States of Colorado & Nevada. While in CO most of the Vote in the Suburban Counties like Jefferson, Araphaoe and Adams seems to be in given that only 68 % has been counted it suggests that a lot of Denver Metro and Boulder is still out meaning President Clinton is likely to grow her lead there.
And in Nevada we absolutely have nothing out of Clark & Washoe Counties. If Hillary manages to win NV by 5 or more that might spell trouble for Republican Senator Dean Heller.

That leaves us with Virginia & Florida and those two States are going down to the very thinnest of wires. The remaining 8 % of the FL Vote will be Democratic. There could be a Recount there should Clinton get some 50,000 extra Votes out of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. Given Senator Jindal leads 50.2 to 49.0 that's probably around 100K.
In Virginia we have to wait until all of Fairfax County is in. I don't know if all of Alexandria & Arlington has been counted. Those 3 Democratic Strongholds could theoretically help President Clinton getting over the line there.

The most fascinating State left is Washington State. While President Clinton has carried the States' Electoral Votes the State is in a unique Position having close Races for Senate & Governor which could end up in a split Decision with Senator Inslee winning Re-Election while Republican Rob McKenna winning the Governors Race.

[2016]

Nice Speeches by Senator Jindal & President Clinton aiming for "Unity". I like that.

6 House Races are Uncalled. Where are they? The fact is that the Networks had to wait until well past Midnight is not good for Boehner & Republicans. The Freedom Caucus is going to cause havoc for him.

3 Senate Seats Uncalled and it is conceivable Democrats could win all 3. I think the remaining Vote in Washington State is probably mostly from King County which makes the Math difficult for Governor Rossi.

In Montana Jon Tester is a strong Incumbent and in Nevada the Question how much coattails did Hillary provide to Shelley Berkley. This is probably the Seat that's most difficult to get for Democrats.

I think Hillary Clinton will win both Virginia and Missouri, although there could be Recounts.

[2016]

Quick Mentioner: 2012 was the Election where a certain Florida Congressman won.

Not sure what OSR has in store for Ron DeSantis down the road.

As expected with the Final Vote Drops Hillary Clinton carried Virginia and Missouri. Therefore she came only 12 Electoral College Votes shy off what Obama got in the OTL (He got 332).

I predict Montana Senate is going to a Recount.

Boehner is in a tough Spot only having a 220-215 Majority at best. He will have to make some deals which will anger the Freedom Caucus.