Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Today was the debate on the investidura de Núñez Feijóo. I did not get to watch much of it, but I did watch the sections where Óscar Puente called out PP corruption, and where Feijóo and Rufián got into a back and forth. It seemed pretty fun. Can't wait for tomorrow.

It is quite funny that the question of amnesty laws has brought out the likes of Aznar and González, even if it makes sense given how central it is to the modern Spanish state. This makes me wonder, what is their reputation today both among society at large and within their respective parties, especially the more ideological and less moderate factions?

I can't speak to the general vibe of these two in Spanish society, but I know that back during the 2016 PSOE civil war, González was part of the anti-Sánchez establishment pushing Susana Díaz. I figure an actual Spaniard can fill in the blanks.

[Oryxslayer]

First PP vote fails along party lines, 172 - 178. If there's to be any theoretical abstentions though, they will come on the forthcoming simple majority ballot, but I doubt those are coming. Similarly,  as discussed here many times,  a majority against one government plan does not equal a majority in favor of the other.

[Former President tack50]

It is quite funny that the question of amnesty laws has brought out the likes of Aznar and González, even if it makes sense given how central it is to the modern Spanish state. This makes me wonder, what is their reputation today both among society at large and within their respective parties, especially the more ideological and less moderate factions?

Aznar is liked by basically any conservative in Spain. He presided over a period of big, if unsustainable (but people did not know that) economic growth and is more ideologically hardline than any other PP leader in the past (except for maybe Fraga I suppose, but the fact it takes a literal Francoist minister to outflank him says a lot). Very strong candidate for conservatives to say "Best PM ever"; pretty sure he does narrowly beat Suarez on that among conservatives, particularly younger ones.

If anything, the controversial former PP leader is Rajoy!

As for Gonzalez, he is disliked by most on Sumar, but that should not be a surprise (it's not like IU back in the day was propping him up). Perhaps more interestingly, he is disliked by quite a few among the PSOE base, basically the more left wing, young, progressive, pro-Catalan nationalist elements. This faction has been gradually gaining power over time vs the older, more conservative and traditional old guard.

Tbh, I do not think that many people hold a positive opinion of Gonzalez these days. Insane for literally the longest serving PM in history

In a certain way, I'd say Zapatero and Aznar are the closest comparison between their respective parties; while Rajoy and Gonzalez hold similar roles in terms of how they are seen by their respective bases (except Rajoy is not critical at all of PP leadership)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

PSOE nearly had their own Alberto Casero today. A Socialist deputy, Herminio Sancho, seemingly voted in favor of Feijóo, to the applause of the populares, but he claims he was trying to confirm that "Yes, I am Sancho; No." Of course, Casero's vote was the deciding factor in the reforma laboral, while Sancho's vote would not have made a difference and only would have made Feijóo's failure 173 - 177 instead of 172 - 178.

I, for one, am glad we got at least one entertaining moment during the otherwise extremely predictable afternoon.

[MRCVzla]

PSOE nearly had their own Alberto Casero today. A Socialist deputy, Herminio Sancho, seemingly voted in favor of Feijóo, to the applause of the populares, but he claims he was trying to confirm that "Yes, I am Sancho; No." Of course, Casero's vote was the deciding factor in the reforma laboral, while Sancho's vote would not have made a difference and only would have made Feijóo's failure 173 - 177 instead of 172 - 178.

I, for one, am glad we got at least one entertaining moment during the otherwise extremely predictable afternoon.

And it wasn't the first time the "Casero"/"wrong voting" thing happened, it happened again at PP caucus just last week when Congress aproved the reform of their Internal Rules to include the co-official languages (catalan, basque and galician) -one of the PSOE' promises to get the nationalists votes for the Congress board- , the PP MP who wrongly voted in favor of the reform was from Galicia to all over the places.

As for Feijóo' failed investiture (to be reconfirmed on Friday), it's matter of time for Sánchez present his attempt, rumors says that his turn would be around mid October, at that time he may resolve some of the biggest questions, how will introduce or not the potential Amnesty Law to Catalan separatist leaders? (as he depends of Junts to get approved) and if he will keep Podemos -and especifically outgoing Equality Minister Irene Montero- in the Council of Ministers? (Podemos' main demand to stay in cabinet, despite high criticism towards her figure by left and right, especially due to the "Only Yes Means Yes" Law and the less influence Podemos now has within Sumar)

My probablities, Sánchez gets re-elected but most likely may collapse in 2 years... or snap elections in January.

[MRCVzla]

(...)
As for Feijóo' failed investiture (to be reconfirmed on Friday), it's matter of time for Sánchez present his attempt, rumors says that his turn would be around mid October, at that time he may resolve some of the biggest questions, how will introduce or not the potential Amnesty Law to Catalan separatist leaders? (as he depends of Junts to get approved)

(...)
My probablities, Sánchez gets re-elected but most likely may collapse in 2 years... or snap elections in January.

Last minute update, according to progressive leaning digital Eldiario.es, both Catalan pro-indy parties has pacted "not support" (or "secure their votes" to) Sánchez' investiture unless "he compromises to work to make effective the conditions to hold the (self-determination) referendum".

PSOE and PSC in a joint communication responded saying what "for that way, there's not possible advance", keeping advocate to continue the ongoing "dialogue for convivency" who has with the ERC' Govern in "not profundize on rupture and discord", and seems right, if there's a barely majority to keep Sánchez, is most impossible do what the pro-indy wants by the "constitutional way" (3/5 of the Congress to reform the Constitution around allow certain referendums, like self-determination/secession for one territory).

The chances for the 14 January' snap election has been rised.

In other political news, a PSOE councilor in Madrid city has been forced to resign after "attack physically" with a "violent and intimidate attitude" the PP Mayor Martínez Almeida (touching three times his face) after a intervention on the  City Council session, the councilor was ejected from the session, the PSOE regional direction rejected the act and recriminate the councilor, said councilor has already given their public apologies to Mayor Almeida.

Other anecdotical update comes from what remains of Ciudadanos, the party expelled some critic ranks as Castilla y León leader and sole regional MP Francisco Igea and former spokeperson Edmundo Bal, days after both launched a new centrist-liberal platform called Nexo, both Igea and Bal were critical to C's decision of not standing in the July general election. Ofc no one seems to expect either C's of whatever their splinters (another one was been announced, formed by mostly the same people who launched UPyD, in order to attract "dissafected socialdemocrats", good luck with that) have some real success in the short or medium future.

[Oryxslayer]

(...)
As for Feijóo' failed investiture (to be reconfirmed on Friday), it's matter of time for Sánchez present his attempt, rumors says that his turn would be around mid October, at that time he may resolve some of the biggest questions, how will introduce or not the potential Amnesty Law to Catalan separatist leaders? (as he depends of Junts to get approved)

(...)
My probablities, Sánchez gets re-elected but most likely may collapse in 2 years... or snap elections in January.

The chances for the 14 January' snap election has been rised.

Legitimately the best outcome politically, maybe not for the Spanish electorate being called back after the holidays.

VOX should not go into government, but if the voters want it there, then let them give the Right a majority. No shady backroom deals to encourage PSOE defections.

Sanchez meanwhile could and should be doing everything he deems necessary to reconcile with the ERC. And Catalan voters seemingly want that, based on their votes. But letting Junts dictate terms would just lead to a government collapse on unfavorable terms not long into the future. How the Spanish and Catalan governments proceed in their relationship will be up to their leaders, and if both at some point in the future there is an agreed upon referendum, then let it happen.

But Junts hasn't been a approachable actor in that process. If they can't get the recognized offer then they will advance unilaterally, in keeping with with their own recognized legitimacy of past unilateral actions. Violence will beget more violence. And the Catalan nationalists shouldn't desire this either, since the desired EU and NATO membership would only be maintained if those parties recognize the legitimacy of the nationalist outcome. Confrontation will make everything worse.

[Mike88]

I think this whole thing is just tiring. The election results showed that Catalan voters, a big majority of them, have had enough of the whole Independence thing. There are other pressing and much more important issues to deal with. And the stubbornness of Junts, and now it seems ERC, on pressing for a the referendum and amnisty shows that these parties have nothing to give to voters other the independence, independence. Not sure if this concerted action by Junts/ERC is just bluff, with them thinking that Sanchéz wants to remain PM so badly that he would do anything and then they would "got him" in their hands. But, that seems too obvious to everyone.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

In the mindset of the pro-independence camp, their conditions would simply set a blank slate and correct the injustices committed by the Spanish State. They are the side that was wronged by the other, and as such giving anything in return or to leave any demand unfulfilled would be inherently unjust.

Junts’ and ERC’s performative maximalism is a charade to maintain this victim mindset in Catalonia. Privately, they know that they are in an extremely favorable position to extract concessions from the incoming government, and they will not throw it away.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Second Feijóo investiture vote fails 172-177 (1 invalid vote due to a mistake by a Junts MP). The King will hold a new consultation round among party leaders next week and presumably name Pedro Sánchez as PM candidate.

[Zinneke]

I think this whole thing is just tiring. The election results showed that Catalan voters, a big majority of them, have had enough of the whole Independence thing. There are other pressing and much more important issues to deal with. And the stubbornness of Junts, and now it seems ERC, on pressing for a the referendum and amnisty shows that these parties have nothing to give to voters other the independence, independence. Not sure if this concerted action by Junts/ERC is just bluff, with them thinking that Sanchéz wants to remain PM so badly that he would do anything and then they would "got him" in their hands. But, that seems too obvious to everyone.

Again Devil's Advocate (because I do think the Process was a fiasco), but how can anti-Catalanists suddenly say "Catalonia has spoken!" for this election yet the past 3 elections when the independence parties won outright majorities there it was "well they don't really represent Catalonia, there's a silent majority, blah blah"
 The best way to look at this issue is that there are 2 fixed blocs like Northern Ireland (with also some moderate elements on the constitutional issue). And that requires compromise, not hubristic boasting about winning the right to speak on behalf of all Catalonia because of one election.

Their stubbornness is perfectly understandable given the stubbornness shown towards them when they won outright majorities.

[Velasco]

Catalan pro-independence parties have never won outright majorities in general elections. In the last 20 years the PSC-PSOE came first in 2004, 2008 and 2023; CiU in 2011; ECP (Podemos) in 2015 and 2016; ERC won pluralities in 2019 In what concerns regional elections, in the last 10 years or so pro-independence parties won parliamentary majorities getting 47.5% of the vote on average (they got 51% in 2021, but turnout dropped to 51%)

These are elections of different kinds and obviously people vote differently. Pro-independence parties are undoubtedly strong, particularly in regional elections. However, in the last general elections nearly 1/2 of Catalan voters backed PSC and Sumar, while pro-independence parties fell below 30%. This is the picture at this precise moment, complemented by polls showing a decreasing support for independence and an outright majority rejecting unilateralism or maximalism. I'm getting the impression ERC and Junts are asking for some rhetorical concession of sorts. They can be truly absurd people

[Oryxslayer]

Catalan pro-independence parties have never won outright majorities in general elections. In the last 20 years the PSC-PSOE came first in 2004, 2008 and 2023; CiU in 2011; ECP (Podemos) in 2015 and 2016; ERC won pluralities in 2019 In what concerns regional elections, in the last 10 years or so pro-independence parties won parliamentary majorities getting 47.5% of the vote on average (they got 51% in 2021, but turnout dropped to 51%)

These are elections of different kinds and obviously people vote differently. Pro-independence parties are undoubtedly strong, particularly in regional elections. However, in the last general elections nearly 1/2 of Catalan voters backed PSC and Sumar, while pro-independence parties fell below 30%. This is the picture at this precise moment, complemented by polls showing a decreasing support for independence and an outright majority rejecting unilateralism or maximalism. I'm getting the impression ERC and Junts are asking for some rhetorical concession of sorts. They can be truly absurd people

Maybe I'm being picky here, but if you are going to excuse the majority won in 2021 for the Nationalist block with low turnout, you should also asterisk the recent GE results since the hardliner Nationalist voters also boycotted/didn't want to turnout.


I personally think the picture is complicated precisely because of the differing contexts for national and local elections. A majority is rejecting unilateralism (which is why Junts shouldn't be given new life) but what they want instead can be hard to describe. The Gulf between ERC and Junts in the next Catalan election polling is kinda huge now - even though ERC still trails the PSC, but the nationalist parties are still in contention for a majority through D'Hondt allocation shenanigans. Do we say that voters want a negotiated and mutual form of separatism, no separatism but a nationalist 'identity' with Spain, or perhaps just the present normalcy provided by the socialists and the ERC?

Theoretically, the last answer is the one that best explains the PSOE GE vote, while also explaining why the ERC remains strong in local polling. They are the same voters. But if we do accept the idea of normalcy, then it is in stark contrast to Junts who wants abnormalcy. Which would suggest it's the radical voters in the provincial separatist minority who stayed home. ERC, who already lost big in 2022 to PSOE, would have lost even more under normal turnout circumstances. Which would be why they have now teamed up in their statement with Junts, to draw a distinction between them and PSOE to try and claw back federal election voters.

[MRCVzla]

Pedro Sánchez has been formally designed by the King to be candidate to the investiture, without a date in order to secure his support' deals (with Sumar and nationalists, specially the Catalan ones), no mention to a potential amnesty yet. Deadline to the investiture been called is up to November 27th, and seems this one will be around early/mid November (after Princess Leonor' 18th birthday and her swearing to the Constitution in las Cortes on October 31th).

The Congress regulations are likely to be modified again to avoid the blunders seen in Feijoó's investiture when some MPs mentions incorrectly their vote and attempts to correct quickly in voice votes.

[Velasco]

[

Maybe I'm being picky here, but if you are going to excuse the majority won in 2021 for the Nationalist block with low turnout, you should also asterisk the recent GE results since the hardliner Nationalist voters also boycotted/didn't want to turnout.


I personally think the picture is complicated precisely because of the differing contexts for national and local elections. A majority is rejecting unilateralism (which is why Junts shouldn't be given new life) but what they want instead can be hard to describe. The Gulf between ERC and Junts in the next Catalan election polling is kinda huge now - even though ERC still trails the PSC, but the nationalist parties are still in contention for a majority through D'Hondt allocation shenanigans. Do we say that voters want a negotiated and mutual form of separatism, no separatism but a nationalist 'identity' with Spain, or perhaps just the present normalcy provided by the socialists and the ERC?

Theoretically, the last answer is the one that best explains the PSOE GE vote, while also explaining why the ERC remains strong in local polling. They are the same voters. But if we do accept the idea of normalcy, then it is in stark contrast to Junts who wants abnormalcy. Which would suggest it's the radical voters in the provincial separatist minority who stayed home. ERC, who already lost big in 2022 to PSOE, would have lost even more under normal turnout circumstances. Which would be why they have now teamed up in their statement with Junts, to draw a distinction between them and PSOE to try and claw back federal election voters.

ERC is certainly stuck in the middle of Junts and the PSC. On the one hand, ERC competes with the PSC or Sumar for a segment of progressive catalanist voters. On the other hand, there is a relentless struggle between ERC and Junts for the hegemony in the nationalist camp. That struggle between Catalan nationalist parties is a key factor (albeit not the only one)to explain their process of radicalization. Back in autumn 2017,  at the peak of the Catalan conflict, ERC pushed Puigdemont to go further. Reportedly Puigdemont was persuaded by the Basque premier Urkullu to call a snap election, but then ERC congressman Gabriel Rufián tweeted something about the "155 silver coins*" (he was implying that decision would be a treason to the people that voted for independence in the October 1 consultation). After that strange declaration of independence and his flight to Waterloo, Puigdemont has been the one advocating the "October 1 mandate", while ERC followed a more oragmatic strategy under the leadership of the then jailed Oriol Junqueras. ERC position is complicated after the big losses in the last GE, while Junts needs to sell symbolic concessions from the Spanish government to the separatist base. Interestingly ERC and Junts are omitting the word "independence" in their recent joint statement asking the central government to "go torwards a referendum". Anyway the Spanish Right will take advantage of these complications to intensify the attacks on the "Frankenstein government " and ",Perro" Sánchez

* "155 sulver coins" is a play of words between the coins paid to Judas to betray Jesus and the article 155 of the constitution invoked to suspend Catalan self-government

Meanwhile Mr. Handsome vindicates Lorca at the EU summit in Granada

https://twitter.com/pdrsnche/status/1709895140234428843?t=PJfNX1SiCeXMmMeABzq6AQ...

[Velasco]

I'm overwhelmed by the ongoing heatwave and the tragic events of Israel-Palestine, so I have overlooked this. Just inform you that a demonstration against amnesty took place in Barcelona

https://twitter.com/neustomas/status/1710961358437482742?t=zhoVILtB5-4LzEtXb-Cuq...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I'm overwhelmed by the ongoing heatwave and the tragic events of Israel-Palestine, so I have overlooked this. Just inform you that a demonstration against amnesty took place in Barcelona

https://twitter.com/neustomas/status/1710961358437482742?t=zhoVILtB5-4LzEtXb-Cuq...

Didn't even have the basic decency to iron their newly purchased flags

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The Spanish elections and politics III fandom is dying. Repost if you are a true fan!

Seriously though this topic has been basically silent for a few weeks since Feijóo's investidura flopped (the title of the thread should probably be updated), despite Sánchez's investidura looking very interesting. So here are a couple stories for discussion:

Spain’s acting leader is booed at a National Day event as the country’s political limbo drags on
AP
October 12, 2023

Spain's acting PM Sanchez meets Catalan, Basque separatists in bid for new term
Reuters
October 13, 2023

Spanish court investigates ex-spy chief over alleged snooping on Catalans
Reuters
October 16, 2023

Israel accuses Spain of siding with Hamas after ‘genocide’ accusation
Several left-wing politicians have called on Madrid to bring Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the ICC, sparking a diplomatic row.
Al-Jazeera
17 Oct 2023

Spain rejects Israeli claims of its officials aligning with Hamas
Minister in coalition government had suggested Benjamin Netanyahu should face war crimes charges
The Guardian
17 Oct 2023

Spain’s leader mulls granting amnesty to thousands of Catalan separatists in order to stay in power
AP
October 19, 2023

[Mike88]

I have been following by El País and El Mundo but all seems a bit stagnated, with very little moving forward.

[MRCVzla]

Today the Coalition Agreement between PSOE and Sumar was finally signed, its star proposal being the reduction of working hours, as well as more commitments in housing, public transport, climate change, reinforce the health system, and also try again to reform (for good) the so-called "Ley Mordaza" or Citizen Security Law.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1716806293019939043

All the points of the agreement 🌹 PSOE - Sumar ➕

Reduction of working hours
SMI increase
Pension increase
Rent regulation
Reduction of waiting lists
free daycare
Emissions reduction
Progressivity in personal income tax

[Mike88]

I feel that this coalition announcement is bit of a "propaganda stunt" in order to give the impression that something is actually going on regarding the formation of a Government, when in reality it's not.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

What happened to Yoli's demands for a recognized Palestinian state?

[Velasco]

What happened to Yoli's demands for a recognized Palestinian state?

The coalition deal between PSOE and Sumar stated that they are committed to recognize Palestine as a state and that is all

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-psoe-sumar-comprometen-apostar-reconocimiento-estado-palestino-acuerdo-coalicion-20231024141408.html

[MRCVzla]

In the weekend, Sánchez has openly called for support a Amnesty in Catalonia for convivence' sake (and ofc to secure his reelection) at PSOE' Federal Committee, for much disdain from the (political and mediatical) Right and the dissidence within PSOE (García Page, Gónzalez, Guerra), Sánchez is still to secure the votes of PNV, BNG or other Sumar factions in order to call within weeks his Investiture. Still some clashes within the government about Palestine mostly from Podemos ministers like Belarra who called Sánchez and European instituion "not doing enough about Palestine people" or "being complicit in a genocide".

Tomorrow Princess Leonor turns 18 and will be a public act in the Congress to Swear the Constitution, Casa Real wants the act to be an exact copy from the time were King Felipe did the same in 1986. Podemos, IU, Compromís, ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV or BNG are boycotting the act to express again their dissence about the Monarchy as institution (mostly being pro-republican and show their dissaproval of the actions of former King Juan Carlos).

[Velasco]

A demonstration against amnesty and evil Perro Sanxe took place at Colón Square last Sunday in Madrid, organized by Vox and Danaes foundation.  Allegedly 100k attended (neitherFeijóo nor Ayuso among them), doubling the figures of the demobstrations organized by the PP. In the clip,  Vox MP for Asturias José María Figueredo invoking the ban of separatist parties. By the way, I love the name of this tweeter X account: it seems to me like a mix of former Cs deputy (Juan Carlos) Girauta and Reuters, lol

https://twitter.com/Girauters/status/1717996112315879862?t=J_nroj9ScomOPxl3tnkBd...

Still some clashes within the government  Palestine mostly from Podemos ministers like Belarra who called Sánchez and European instituion "not doing enough about Palestine people" or "being complicit in a genocide".

Tomorrow Princess Leonor turns 18 and will be a public act in the Congress to Swear the Constitution, Casa Real wants the act to be an exact copy from the time were King Felipe did the same in 1986. Podemos, IU, Compromís, ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV or BNG are boycotting the act to express again their dissence about the Monarchy as institution (mostly being pro-republican and show their dissaproval of the actions of former King Juan Carlos).

For all I support the Palestinian cause and think western democracies are not doing enough and falling into a moral abyss, I don't understand these calls from what's left of Podemos. Given the European and Western contexts, Pedro Sánchez has made very correct statements and even the Foreign Affairs minister defended Belarra and co from a vicious attack coming from the Israeli embassy.

Neither former King Juan Carlos nor former Queen Sofia will attend the speech of Princess Leonor of Asturias. That's telling