Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal

[Gass3268]

Why does it need so few votes to pass?

Congress will easily vote for disapproval of the deal, Obama will veto the disapproval, Congress will try for an override, and the override vote will in all likelihood fail. This means the deal will go though.

[Gass3268]

Americans want the deal to be implemented 54%-39%

[Gass3268]

Rep. Chris van Hollen (D-MD) is a yes.

David Price (D-NC), Dan Kildee (D-MD) and Sander Levin (D-MI) are also all yes

[Gass3268]

My guess is it'll fail in the Senate by 1-3 votes. Can't see Schumer, Nelson or Menendez voting aye at the end of the day.

Wrong on Nelson, still waiting on the other two.

[Gass3268]

Not surprising, Chris Murphy backs the deal

[Gass3268]

Not shocking, Congressman Mark Pocan (WI-02) is a yes.

[Gass3268]

Schumer to oppose deal. What a piece of scum.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chuck-schumer-planning-to-break-with-obama-oppose-iran-deal_55c3f7e9e4b0d9b743dba71d?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000013&section=politics

The fact that he is going to be the future Senate Leader of the Democratic Party is sickening.

[Gass3268]

What 12 other Democrats are going to vote no now? Currently there are 15 confirmed yes votes, 8 leaning yes (for the sake of this I am going to assume they remain a yes), and 22 undecideds.

Undecided:

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.)
Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.)
Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)
Sen. Maria Cantwell (Wash.)
Sen. Ben Cardin (Md.)
Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (Pa.)
Sen. Chris Coons (Del.)
Sen. Joe Donnelly (Ind.)
Sen. Al Franken (Minn.)
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.)
Sen. Mazie Hirono (Hawaii)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.)
Sen. Ed Markey (Mass.)
Sen. Bob Menendez (N.J.)
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (Md.)
Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.)
Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.)
Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.)
Sen. Mark Warner (Va.)
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.)
Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.)

Where are 12 more defections out of that list? Menedez seems like an obvious choice, but after that I don't where the other 11 come from.

[Gass3268]

Menendez is an obvious one. Cardin will likely follow Schumer. Wyden, Stabenow, Bennet, Warner are also votes that could realistically follow, I think. Booker received the most support from Jewish, Israel groups in 2014 of ANY candidate, so he might as well.

so, 8 there, possibly. Donnelly, since he's a conservadem, maybe Casey too, so 10. Baldwin has been strongly voting with Pro-Israel groups all year, so she's a possibility. 11.

After that it gets hard to tell.

Whitehouse will vote for the deal (he gave a nasty bashing to Bibi in March and didn't go to the speech in congress)

Baldwin supports the deal

[Gass3268]

Wouldn't Schumer seriously damage his chances of becoming the new Dem leader by voting against his own caucus on such critical issue? Real Democrats certainly shouldn't let that slip.

I think it might hurt him, but if he doesn't actively try to convince other Democrats and the bill will be passed, then he will be forgiven. Other Democrats will understand that he is not to be envied, as a Jewish senator in New York, the blue state were opposition against the Iran deal might be the highest. Supporting the deal might lead to a serious primary.

Democratic Jews don't care about foreign policy nearly as much as everyone seems to think. Otherwise they'd be solid Republicans by now. Also, despite what Netanyahu wants us to believe, he does not in fact speak for all Jews.

If Schumer fears he'll be primaried, it's just further proof that Democrats need to grow a spine.

Neither do you.

But a combination of Bibi, Bennett, Herzog, Lapid, Livni, and others do speak for Jews worldwide, and they all oppose this bad Iran deal.

No. They speak for Israel. Plenty of Jews don't agree with current Israeli government or parties. And that's without some, like the Outremont Jews here in Québec, thinking Israel is illegitimate and "hereric", because Jews shouldn't return to the Holy Land until God allows them to do so.

Yes, there are crazy people in every grouping of people. Satmar Jews are the American version of that. 

A better example would be ultra-secular Jews who do not identify with Israel, but in most cases these Jews also don't strongly identify with Judaism either. Which is fine, I disagree with it strongly and on moral grounds, but one will do what one wants to do.

But, for the most part, Jews who somewhat strongly or strongly identify with the culture, religion etc...have Israel as a top 5 or top 10 issue.

Israel doesn't exist for the mere fact of existing. It exists to better Jewish life, including Diaspora Jewish life. It may not be very successful in the latter, but Israel definitely does more for Diaspora Jews then any political party has or will do.

This continuous effort to split Jews and Israel from each other is not surprising to me, because ultimately the only thing the far-left wants is 100% obedience on all issues.

Also, the Security establishment in Israel is who? Dagan, Halevy? People who are irrelevant in today's world and just want to win the love of the left?

Fine, I'll bite. What does Israel do for Jews who don't live in Israel, and may never have been to Israel and may never go anywhere near Israel?

Ensures that any country that decides their country will be better off without its Jewish population alive has a jacked-up, nuclear-capable Jewish state to deal with before they can do that.

Now, I don't think that's likely to be a problem in America any time soon, but that's one of like 5-10 countries I can confidently say that about.

Illegal nuclear weapons I might add, just like India, North Korea and Pakistan.

[Gass3268]

Senator Flake predicts Obama will win on Iran Deal, Also may vote for the deal

Obama's best chance for getting a Republican to support the deal.

[Gass3268]

Dr. Gary Samore became chairman back in 2013 for the group United Against Nuclear Iran. He is one of the leading non-proliferation experts in the country and one of the biggest skeptics about the deal  before the deal was announced last month. Dr. Samore had to resign as chairman because he supports the deal! LOL!

Former Senator Joe Lieberman has taken his place

[Gass3268]

Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.) is a Yes, now up to 45. Currently only 10 Democratic rejections in the House.

[Gass3268]

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is a yes

Obama only needs 14 votes. Huffington Post as 11 Democratic Senators listed as likely supporting the deal. That means they only 3 votes are needed from the 12 current undecideds. Things are looking good!

[Gass3268]

Here is the current vote map in the House. I am assuming that every Republican is a no (if that changes I'll edit the map). Dark Red is Yes, Light Red is a Likely Yes, Pink is No, Purple is Undecided, and Brown is No Declared Position.

[Gass3268]

Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) confirms what we all assumed, he is a no vote

Looking forward to the day when he's in a jail cell. Shouldn't be too long. New Jersey deserves better than this Lieberman wannabe.

[Gass3268]

Former Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) supports the deal

[Gass3268]

Former Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) supports the deal

Thank God, Murdock primaried that guy.

Joe Donnelly agrees.

Lugar's support might end up pushing Donnelly to support the deal.

[Gass3268]

Senate Map Time!



Again I am assuming that every Republican will vote no now that Flake has announced he is opposed to the deal. I am also counting Democratic Lean Yeses as Undecideds. Dark Green is 2 Yeses, Light Green is 1 Yes and 1 Undecided, Purple is a Yes and a No, Dark Red is 2 Nos, Light Red is a 1 No and 1 Undecided, and Yellow is 2 Undecided

[Gass3268]

Democratic Reps. John Larson (D-CT), Maxine Waters (D-CA), Michael Capuano (D-MA), Gwen Moore (D-WI), Rubén Hinojosa (D-TX), and Denny Heck (D-WA) are all Yes

[Gass3268]

Sen. Donnelly (D-IN) is a yes. That's a big get, since he was a swing vote. 24.

Lugar was probably the exact cover he needed on the issue. I am starting to wonder if the Republicans will even get the 60 necessary to overcome a filibuster. Wouldn't that be amazing!

[Gass3268]

Paul Tonko (D-NY) and Steve Cohen (D-TN) are both yes.

Donald Norcross (D-NJ) is a no.

Brad Ashford (D-NE) is leaning no.

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Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) is a yes.

So far there are 57 yes votes in the House.

[Gass3268]

Off topic, but a petition recently showed up of 340 American rabbis supporting the deal. Among them was the (just retired) Chief Rabbi of my Hillel (who happens to be Orthodox).
http://www.ameinu.net/newsroom/press-release/340-rabbis-urge-congress-to-support-nuclear-deal-with-iran/
I also did a poll of the Rabbi of the (Conservative/Masorti) synagogue where I grew up. He's in favor also.

So many self-haters

[Gass3268]

The info coming out on these side deals regarding Iranian self-inspection may make the vote even on sustaining the veto uncomfortably close.

IAEA is saying that those reports are misinterpretations of the truth.