Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

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You mean Strong Candidates™ Dino Rossi and Young Kim, both of whom had 10 point leads in some polls before the election, BOTH lost!? I'm absolutely SHOCKED I tell you.

Anyway, Porter beating Walters is enough very satisfying result. I wonder if the media will berate Republicans about how they're "losing touch" with suburban educated voters, and have to do a better job of empathizing with and understanding them... I'm joking, of course they'd never do that. Republicans are never "out of touch."

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Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

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And Republicans have failed to hold a single open district that went for Clinton.

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Apparently, Mia Love's gain in Utah County was actually not great for her, since it was a weaker margin than before, and now almost all of what's left is SLC. McAdams needs to win about 58% of the remaining votes in SLC, which is only a few points higher than what he's been getting recently (54%).

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/19/gehrke-good-news-is-bad/

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If Democrats win CA-21 and UT-04, that would be a 40-seat gain, assuming that NY-22 holds for Brindisi (which it almost certainly will.) They would need GA-07 and/or NY-27 to get to 41 or 42.

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If Democrats win CA-21 and UT-04, that would be a 40-seat gain, assuming that NY-22 holds for Brindisi (which it almost certainly will.) They would need GA-07 and/or NY-27 to get to 41 or 42.

The Democrats already have 233 if you count NM-2.  With CA-21, and UT-4 they're up to 235, which would be a 41-seat gain (the Democrats had won 194 in 2016).  If you're counting Lamb's seat as D, that's ridiculous because the Democrats never had 195 representatives in the 115th Congress.

It's 233 with NM-02 AND NY-22. CNN hasn't called NM-02, and the NYT hasn't called NY-22.

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https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1065019742140850176

Mia Love gained a handful of votes from the final absentees from Utah and Salt Lake, but it wasn't enough for her. Ben McAdams wins by just shy of 700 votes, and barely enough to avoid a recount (though I doubt a recount would change a 700-vote margin in a House race.)

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I wouldn't quite call MN-07 Safe R unless Peterson retires, but he probably needs 2020 to be very good for Democrats to survive. Probably at least Lean R, if not Likely R.

Anyway, in CA-21 we got... 7 more votes from Tulare. I really hope we get something from Fresno, since that's pretty much where this race will be decided.

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Not exactly the same thing when a black candidate loses to a white candidate who doesn't run on racism. How many people talked about how racist Nevada was for kicking out Horsford in 2014? No one, because Hardy managed to not run as a racist, unlike a certain Governor-elect from a certain penis-shaped state.

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The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Don't forget Unbeatable Titans Brian Fitzpatrick and John Katko, though their days might be numbered as well.

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https://twitter.com/ACampaNajjar/status/1066146260061548544

any shot for him?

No.

why?

I'm not sure how many of those 72K ballots are actually in CA-50, but either way, he's not winning them by enough. He might get the margin close to 2%, but that's about as good as I think it can get for him.

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I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

Jeppe thinks that Emily Cain was a stronger candidate than Jared Golden.

Jeppe always assumes the woman is the better candidate by default, which is ridiculous. Granted, a lot of Atlas believes the exact opposite, which is just as ridiculous.

Yeah, it's kind of sad how many here rail against "identity politics", and then prove exactly why racism and sexism need to addressed.

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Already been over for weeks, but this race didn't end up being close. Hill just wrecked Knight. She also won by more than Nunes.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067205507767709696?s=19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcZzlPGnKdU

If Hill's margin grows a bit more, the Siena poll showing Knight up by 4 could end up being as far off as their TX-23 poll.

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Is that all of what's left in Kern? I mean, given that there's still more of Fresno, we can probably stick a fork in Valadao at this point, but if there's more left in Kern, then we could see Cox at least get closer to a 1,000 vote margin.

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CNN appears to have retracted their call.

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Honestly more excited and on the edge of my seat for remaining ballots in CA 21 than the MS runoff with Espy and CHS today.

I mean, it doesn't look like there is that much suspense, since the math is incredibly daunting for Valadao, but I agree that it's not nearly as much of a foregone conclusion as MS-SEN.

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067853928228827137

We got 1400 more votes from Kings, and Cox WON this batch of ballots. Stick a fork in Valado, if you haven't already.

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R+2 in the Senate sounds more impressive when you realize that means Democrats won 24 out of 35 Senate seats, 7 or which were in states Trump won. For reference, they won 24 out of 33 in 2006, Republicans won 23 out of 35 in 2010, and 24 out of 36 in 2014. I'd say not calling it a Democratic wave is setting the bar for a wave very high.

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Paul Ryan whines about late Democratic wins in California

Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Ryan!

It's harder for California to count their votes quickly because there are so many votes cast by mail, and so often they arrive after Election Day (but are valid as long as they are postmarked on or before Election Day.) Also, no other state has anywhere near as many votes to count in general. It can be frustrating for California to take a while, but better that they count their votes accurately than to rush the count.

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Bankrupt carpetbagging "gringos" (even though he's actually Asian) FTW!

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It's insane that Max Rose won by more than Peter King. Also, interesting that Zeldin did end up having a pretty close shave.