The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.
Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?
When it comes to Turkey more specifically, I’d look at the general patterns of who votes AKP / CHP / HDP (or whatever Kurdish party is currently allowable). Once you control for those demographics, the city by city results become fairly comprehensible.
Also, when we discuss urban areas, Istanbul too large to ignore. Something like 15.5 Million or a little under 20% of the national population, the largest urban area by far in Europe. The City (reminder some historical groups called it that cause nothing compared) has always been a magnet for economic power, which has always attracted internal migrants. This makes Istanbul a massive snapshot of the entire country, with many different communities in many different neighborhoods. That is not like most cities, even other centralizing ones like London.
Accurate.
Also, I would pay no mind to the polls, they are all extremely inaccurate and only reflect the wishes of the parties they are paid by.
Voting for Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP for district mayor, and TİP for district council.
