MT-PPP: Bullock and Daines tied

[MT Treasurer]

If they had polled Gianforte vs. Cooney (which they probably didn’t because Williams/Fox aren’t out of the game yet), it likely would have been another tie or very close to a tie. I expect Rosendale to run 1-3 points ahead of Daines/Gianforte when all is said and done, but there won’t be a ton of split-ticket voting in those three contests at least. A plausible best-case scenario for Republicans would be a repeat of 2000, with Burns = Daines, Martz = Gianforte, Rehberg = Rosendale, although 2000 was also an entirely different era (the Bozeman area was still Safe R, Republicans were competitive in Missoula County, the Republican nominee for president won MT by 25 points, etc., all of which would be unthinkable today). Republicans have little room for error here, especially if Trump "only" wins the state by 9-13 points instead of 20 points.

What complicates matters is that they didn’t poll a Libertarian candidate, even though a Republican county commissioner is running for Senate as a Libertarian (the party essentially replaced their initial candidate because of allegations that he was a Republican plant who would drop out after the filing deadline). Given the closeness of this race this could be the difference between a Bullock +<1 win and a narrow Daines win.

Anyway, if Biden wins and Democrats take the Senate because of two Democratic seats in Montana, I hope federal money floods in under a Biden administration because he couldn’t have passed jack sh*t without Bullock and Tester.