UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

Ah, the more things change…
https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv/status/1715316847355077034

[Torrain]

Given how long it took to eject the Member for Wakefield, I think Romford would have to be a post-charge resignation, rather than an expulsion/recall. Wellingborough, Blackpool South & Solihull all feel more likely at this stage. Maybe Newcastle upon Tyne East, if we ever find out what's going on there.

Given how ugly things have become in East Kilbride (with Cameron and her young family leaving their home and closing her constituency office after death threats), I wouldn't *entirely* rule out an early vacancy there.

[Torrain]

Here is coverage from the same exact by election from 1996:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItLTm5RhvmM

Great channel - some real gems on there. Basically the only place you can find the overnight coverage from several notable elections (including the initial elections to the devolved parliaments of Scotland and Wales in 1999), and most 21st century by-elections.

There are also some Blair-era documentaries, which are a nice insight into a very different time, psychologically. Always struck by the sheer inevitability New Labour appeared to carry for basically that first full term.

[Torrain]

While I'm here -  the new MPs were sworn in today. The Commons photographer caught some decent shots. As per usual, the MPs were flanked by members of their party - including key figures from the by-election campaign.
https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1716488154159419404
For those keeping track of such things, both affirmed, in contrast to the last two Labour by-election winners, Keir Mather and Michael Shanks, who both swore in on the KJV.

[Torrain]

Peter Bone suspension to be voted on tomorrow:
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1716860564083745194
No word on when we’ll get a final decision on Scott Benton, but I believe that’s also expected to be done and dusted before Parliament rises in December.

[Torrain]

I don't know much about U.K. Politics. My question I have . if Tories are losing Mid Bedfordshire district how many safe seats can they have? 100?

If the Conservatives lost Mid-Beds in a general election, on a nation-wide swing towards Labour, we'd be talking about an exctinction level event. Attempting to model those sorts of results produces *insane* maps, like this, from ElectionMapsUK:


Labour: 480 (+284)
Lib Dem: 104 (+96)
Conservative: 20 (-356)
SNP: 23 (-25)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (+1)
Green: 1 (=)

In the event, things *almost certainly* won't be that bad for the Tories - going below 200 is hard, 150 is harder, and dipping below 100 is - well... unlikely.

[Torrain]

In practise what would prevent them going as low as 20 is the Labour/Lib Dem vote split - which even after Mid Beds is still likely to save them in dozens of seats without concentrated campaigns from either Labour or Lib Dem’s. Though personally I no longer think below 150 is all that unlikely given the scale of their vote’s disintegration.

Fair point - in a wipeout scenario the lack of a clear option (where one has never been needed) is probably the saving grace for a number of government MPs.

The thing that I think is most interesting about the wipeout scenario, is whether those last seats go to Labour or the Lib Dems. A 500 Lab, 40 Lib Dem, 20 Tory parliament probably produces a country that's much different from the 400 Lab, 110 Lib Dem, 20 Tory scenario, given the latter has a clear opposition party, and the former has to wait either for a clear challenger to (re)emerge and claim the opposition mantle, or a formal Labour split.

[Torrain]

Commons has voted (without a division) to suspend Peter Bone for six weeks.

Bone won up to as much as 62% of the vote in 2019, with Labour less than half that. So a long way to come back from.

However, the seat has an 18k Tory majority - smaller than Tamworth (19.6k), Mid Beds (24.6k), Somerton (19.2k), Selby (20.1k). Clear two-way Labour-Conservative race - the Lib Dems rarely even keep their deposit there these days.

[Torrain]

Between here and the likely Labour romp in Blackpool, are the Lib Dems really going to sit out a set of by-elections?

They'll just put up paper candidates, and provide the bare-minimum funding. Enough to print some leaflets, and rent one minivan so they can bus in enough activists for a wee photo-op near the end of the camapign.

Tbh - they'll probably spend at least as much time in Solihull (in the off-chance that one actually gets triggered there) as they will in either/both of these seats.

[Torrain]

Bone has been reselected for his seat, and Labour don't have a candidate yet. So there could be some expedited selections on the cards - on both sides of the aisle.

In contrast, while Conservatives haven't made a final decision in Blackpool South (that would require expelling or embracing Benton), Labour have had a candidate in place (Chris Webb) for six months.

[Torrain]

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.

Thing is, the Greens *can’t* make a serious run at it - they just don’t have a by-election machine.

The Lib Dems may be in third-place right now in Solihull. But they’d have to overturn a smaller majority than in either Tiverton & Honiton, or North Shropshire. And - notably, they came from third place in both seats (with a vote share of under 20%) and won with a swing of at least 30%.

[Torrain]

No one knows the constituency or what might happen next, but it should probably be noted here that another Conservative MP (presently unnamed) has been arrested for rape.

Just for the purposes of this thread - Crispin Blunt (MP for Reigate) has now confirmed that this was him.

[Torrain]

Well the Lib-Dems should be the obvious challenger, but this is the part of Surrey where they have done the worst both historically and recently locally.

I think we'd end up in another Mid Beds-style argument between Labour and the Lib Dems over who's best placed to challenge for the seat, based on last time:

[Torrain]

North Northamptonshire Council have published the dates for the Peter Bone recall petition, per the BBC. Should run Nov 8th-Dec 19th, with results published the following day.

Sounds like a February by-election, if it's approved. Commons goes into recess on the 19th of Dec, so writ couldn't be moved until near the middle of January.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1718329090644570502
Setting aside my feelings about them embracing him after the revelations of the past week...

If relations are still this good between Bone and local party members, there's an underpriced outcome here, where he tries to get reselected by Wellingborough Conservative Association.

CCHQ would presumably intervene, given what happened last time a recalled Conservative MP tried that.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1728726309046563319

[Torrain]

Benton is appealing his suspension, and making a complaint to the Independent Expert Panel. He says members of the Standards Committee leaked data about his suspension before he’d seen it, and then goes on a short ramble about how effective he’s been as an MP. Amazed he had the restraint to avoid calling it a witch hunt, although that’s clearly implied.

It’s not going to save him, of course, but it’s clear he’s going to try and play this out for as long as possible - Ferrier-style.

[Torrain]

And we're off:
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1737207073258066326

[Torrain]

Per the Independent, Peter Bone in talks to stand for Reform UK in the by-election for his old seat.

Has to be a wind-up, surely. Making an old man fired for exposing himself to his staffers the new face of the party would be cosmically ill-judged.

[Torrain]

I’ve been preoccupied with family issues for most of the past week. But I’d like to drop by to double check I’m not going insane, and this story *is* real - they’re running the girlfriend!?!

Bone was recalled over sleaze and sexual harassment, then tried (successfully) to intimidate the party into picking the woman he with whom cheated on the renowned Mrs Bone? And Ric Holden and Tom Pursglove showed up to celebrate her selection as a triumph?!

We’ve got sleaze, sex and blackmail, and the writ hasn’t even been moved yet.

[Torrain]

And he's gone:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1744430339408142341

[Torrain]

Labour are selecting a candidate for Rochdale this week, shortlisting by Wednesday and holding the final selection at the weekend..

Pinch of salt, but rumours spreading today that leadership want the i’s chief political correspondent Paul Waugh (locally raised, and helped expose Cyril Smith’s abuse) as their candidate.

[Torrain]

Seems possible. The other likely candidates seem to be members of Rochdale council, who the leadership are hardly going to endorse given recent history, but who might start a narrative about parachuted candidate that the Tories could then build on, unlikely as an upset would be.

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

[Torrain]

The other news of the day is that Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew has announced that she’s running for the European Parliament in Ireland, and is expected to resign as MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Ultra-slim majority of 57 over the UUP at the last election. But that was an odd race (there were a bunch of alliances set up between the parties in 2019, on a seat-by-seat basis), where Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all ran, but the DUP stood aside for the UUP, so things could be rather different depending on who stands, and if polling continues to shift.

[Torrain]

Ah.
So sizable. But definitely not the majority or anything close.

At last count, there are only three majority-Muslim constituencies - Birmingham Hodge Hill (62%), Bradford West (59%), Birmingham Hall Green (56%).

There are another 11 with a Muslim plurality in England.