Is the 2016 election more similar to 1948 or 1976?

[Mr. Smith]

1976 is most glaringly obvious, although 1988 if Dukakis bothered to defend himself and/or  Jesse Jackson were the nominee would be a close second.

[Mr. Smith]

I'll leave this here:

Is Trump, like Carter, a disjunctive President?

https://nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/the-politics-trump-makes/

It's a pretty interesting comparison, and says a lot not only about the similarities between the two elections and presidents, but also of the party coalitions and how they were/are at the end of their functional cycle.

Also interesting that in 1976 the eastern half of America went Democratic and the western half Republican while in 2016 the reverse happened.

Not just then.

The West resisted them both in the primaries too.

[Mr. Smith]

Neither, how about 1964?

- Trump and Goldwater had little support within their own parties.
- LBJ and Hillary portrayed their opponents as dangerous extremists.
- Both Trump and Goldwater were accused of wanting to start dangerous nuclear wars.
- LBJ's running mate Humphrey is from Minnesota; Hillary's running mate Tim Kaine was born in Minnesota.
- Several newspapers that normally stayed neutral endorsed LBJ and Hillary because of who their opponents were.
- Psychologists said Trump and Goldwater were "unfit" for office.

Only difference, LBJ won in a landslide, Trump narrowly won his election.

There are a few odd similarities. However, these races are actually quite different.

*Johnson had the Great Society (much of which he had already passed) while Clinton borrowed bits of Sanders platform unconvincingly.

*Goldwater was the most right-wing nominee since at least Coolidge. Trump, if anything, was slightly left of several of his preceding Republican candidates in rhetoric.

*Johnson maintained and increased the white working-class Democratic vote outside Jim Crow territory (more than even FDR, in fact). Clinton was possibly the worst Democrat for this subset since McGovern.

*LBJ broke into heavily Republican areas across the board - rural, suburban, and urban. Clinton gained a couple points in a few suburbs but otherwise was wiped out of Republican strongholds.

*LBJ's ads attacked Goldwater's policy positions but never commented on his personality. Clinton almost exclusively attacked Trump's personality and implied that alone disqualified him.

*The public was largely optimistic about the future of the nation in 1964. 2016 was possibly the nation's most pessimistic year since the Depression.

*LBJ managed to carried most of the South despite signing civil rights legislation. By contrast racial issues were a major part of Clinton's defeat and she lost every Southern state.

*Goldwater was a Senator. Trump was a real estate billionaire turned TV star.

Virginia says hi, or you gonna suggest Ford lost every southern state too because he won those NoVA areas which "don't count".