Hillary Wins (user search)
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Question: How do you want to see the Midterms?
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Election Night for Close Races Only
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Author Topic: Hillary Wins  (Read 55845 times)
vanteran
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« on: April 11, 2018, 07:32:27 PM »

This timeline is the best! Quick question - wouldn’t Kasich have more delegates then he has right now? He had 153 delegates at the end of the post before this, and now with wins in Ohio (which is a winner take-all state with 66 delegates) and Illinois, he is only up 23 delegates at 176.
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vanteran
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2018, 08:13:46 PM »

Is the Senate race in Louisiana close with Mitch Landrieu in the race? Can’t wait for the next update! Smiley
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vanteran
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2018, 01:37:36 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 07:27:33 PM by vanteran »

Current Senate Makeup

Republicans (51) [–5]
    Richard Shelby (AL)
    Jeff Sessions (AL)
    Dan Sullivan (AK)
    Sean Parnell (AK)
    Jeff Flake (AZ)
    Kelli Ward (AZ)
    John Boozman (AR)
    Tom Cotton (AR)
    Marco Rubio (FL)
    Rick Scott (FL)
    Johnny Isakson (GA)
    David Perdue (GA)
    Mike Crapo (ID)
    Jim Risch (ID)
    Mike Pence (IN)
    Todd Young (IN)
    Chuck Grassley (IA)
    Joni Ernst (IA)
    Kris Kobach (KS)
    Jerry Moran (KS)
    Mitch McConnell (KY)
    Rand Paul (KY)
    John Neely Kennedy (LA)
    Roger Wicker (MS)
    Phil Bryant (MS)
    Josh Hawley (MO)
    Ryan Zinke (MT)
    Deb Fischer (NE)
    Ben Sasse (NE)
    Richard Burr (NC)
    John Hoeven (ND)
    Kevin Cramer (ND)
    Rob Portman (OH)
    Scott Pruitt (OK)
    James Lankford (OK)
    Lindsey Graham (SC)
    Tim Scott (SC)
    John Thune (SD)
    Mike Rounds (SD)
    Lamar Alexander (TN)
    Marsha Blackburn (TN)
    John Cornyn (TX)
    Ted Cruz (TX)
    Evan McMullin (I-UT)
    Mike Lee (UT)
    Barbara Comstock (VA)
    Evan Jenkins (WV)
    Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
    Scott Walker (WI)
    Mike Enzi (WY)
    John Barrasso (WY)

Democrats (49) [+5]
    Eric Garcetti (CA)
    Kamala Harris (CA)
    Michael Bennet (CO)
    John Hickenlooper (CO)
    Richard Blumenthal (CT)
    Chris Murphy (CT)
    Tom Carper (DE)
    Chris Coons (DE)
    Brian Schatz (HI)
    Mazie Hirono (HI)
    Dick Durbin (IL)
    Tammy Duckworth (IL)
    Mitch Landrieu (LA)
    Chellie Pingree (ME)
    Angus King (I-ME)
    Ben Cardin (MD)
    Chris Van Hollen (MD)
    Elizabeth Warren (MA)
    Ed Markey (MA)
    Jennifer Granholm (MI)
    Gary Peters (MI)
    Amy Klobuchar (MN)
    Tina Smith (MN)
    Jason Kander (MO)
    Steve Bullock (MT)
    Jacky Rosen (NV)
    Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
    Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
    Maggie Hassan (NH)
    Bob Menendez (NJ)
    Cory Booker (NJ)
    Tom Udall (NM)
    Martin Heinrich (NM)
    Chuck Schumer (NY)
    Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
    Walter Dalton (NC)
    Sherrod Brown (OH)
    Ron Wyden (OR)
    Jeff Merkley (OR)
    Bob Casey Jr. (PA)
    Katie McGinty (PA)
    Jack Reed (RI)
    Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)
    Patrick Leahy (VT)
    Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
    Mark Warner (VA)
    Patty Murray (WA)
    Maria Cantwell (WA)
    Russ Feingold (WI)

Current House of Representatives Makeup

Republicans: 246 [–9]

Democrats: 189 [+9]
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vanteran
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2018, 06:15:41 PM »

I know I'm one of those annoying correcting guys (lol), as I did some Senate makeup calculations for this TL and discovered the new balance of power should be 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, not 52 R and 48 D (Republicans should have a narrower majority). Below is a breakdown.

2016 Results
51 Democrats (+5)
49 Republicans (-5)

Post-Murkowski and Kaine Resignations
52 Democrats (+1)
48 Republicans (-1)

Post-2017 Special Elections Makeup
50 Democrats (-2)
50 Republicans (+2)

2018 Results (34 seats up: 24 Democratic, 10 Republican)
56 Republicans (+6)
44 Democrats (-6)

Republicans won 16/34 of these seats:
    Arizona
    Arizona (Special)
    Florida
    Indiana
    Mississippi
    Missouri
    Montana
    Nebraska
    North Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah (McMullin caucusing)
    Virginia
    West Virginia
    Wisconsin
    Wyoming

= (50 - 10) + 16 = 40 + 16 = 56 seats (not 57)

Democrats won the remaining 18/34 seats:
    California
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    Hawaii
    Maine (King caucusing)
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota
    Nevada
    New Jersey
    New Mexico
    New York
    Ohio
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    Vermont (Sanders caucusing)
    Washington

= (50 - 24) + 18 = 26 + 18 = 44 seats (not 43)

Therefore, here's the more accurate 2020 Results:
Republicans: 51 (-5)
Democrats: 49 (+5)

Also, it was indicated on the 2018 midterms results that the new House of Representatives makeup was 252 R to 183 D. If the Dems gained 9 seats as mentioned on the "President-elect Kasich" post, shouldn't the new House of Representatives makeup be 243 R to 192 D (not 246-189)?

Sorry for the long post haha
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vanteran
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2018, 01:05:03 AM »

For the North Carolina Senate race match-up, aren’t both Jim Davis and Sue Myrick Republicans?
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vanteran
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2018, 02:50:36 PM »

When's the next update?
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vanteran
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 08:21:51 PM »

Is Russ Feingold running for re-election?
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vanteran
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Posts: 80
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2018, 05:25:15 PM »

I predict Dems take the Senate, and GOP very narrowly holds on to the House

Also, another question haha: This is a bit of a blast from the past, but did Chelsea Clinton manage to win her house race against Peter King in 2018?
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vanteran
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Posts: 80
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2018, 05:47:49 PM »

Excited to see how the races turn up!

In Florida, isn't the Democratic nominee Patrick Murphy who is running on a bipartisan ticket with David Jolly?
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vanteran
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2019, 08:40:41 PM »

Bump
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