KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[lfromnj]

Dems can't do much better than her here, so it's good they got a nice recruit. But this race is Safe R, and will only go Democratic in the 1% scenario Trump sits on his ass while the economy goes off a cliff in September and McConnell is caught napping. Hell, that might not even be enough: if Bevin ends up winning than we know that Kentucky is too far gone for even a 2008 scenario to produce a democratic victory.

The economy went of on q cliff in 2008 and cocaine mitch still won by 5 points.

[lfromnj]

I'm gonna totally grift for McGrath shares on predict it. Then buy cocaine mitch shares at a lower value. Anyone want to help me scam these donors and make em buy McGrath shares once it launches? All you need to do is tell em look Kentucky Democrat advantage registration and mitch McConnell low approval.

I also endorse  Beshear. If he somehow wins  Democrat donors will believe cocaine mitch is beatable.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1148659663715520512?s=19

Nate, No! Don't give them false hope!

YES NATE ALUMINUM GIVE ME THAT DEM CASH.

[lfromnj]

TBH Mcgrath will probably win Ky 06 against Mitch.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/mcgrath-raises-record-2-5-million-first-day-senate-campaign-n1028121?cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma
2.5 million.
Another female military vet could use that more.(Hegar) and could actually win but turtle man bad wins. Anyway what I have to do is find out these donors and get them on predict it when it launches so I can make that sweet $$$$

[lfromnj]

I'm gonna totally grift for McGrath shares on predict it. Then buy cocaine mitch shares at a lower value. Anyone want to help me scam these donors and make em buy McGrath shares once it launches? All you need to do is tell em look Kentucky Democrat advantage registration and mitch McConnell low approval.

I also endorse  Beshear. If he somehow wins  Democrat donors will believe cocaine mitch is beatable.

My God this plan is brilliant! It's a good thing absolutely no one else has thought of it, that PredictIt users are exactly the same as the sort of people that donate to opponents of hated incumbents and tend to not be far more analytical than emotional in their bets AND that they're easily swayed by the sort of things you want to bring up, that such donors are blowing big amounts instead of making small donations and would be equally willing to make big bets on a betting site, and that PredictIt doesn't heavily eat into the winnings of contracts above 80 cents with all their fees thus making a simple savings account or bond often a better deal. I mean if any one of those things were true this absolute stroke of genius probably wouldn't work.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3608/Will-Dean-Heller-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Nevada-in-2018

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1164630332232077312

If Atkins had won the nomination over Beshear earlier this year, he would probably be on track to defeat Bevin. Against McConnell, however, it's a different story. I think Atkins would do as well as Gray did in 2016, and he would definitely win Elliott County (where he has a base, and where he did exceptionally well against Beshear and Edelen). But McConnell would still win by around 12-15 points in the end, though.

I doubt he would win the primary against McGrath though, especially if Jones runs too.
Amy McGrath will have a small fortune to spend

She’ll probably have a big fortune to spend because idiots keep on pumping money into a lost cause in some vain effort to beat bogeyman McConnell. She raised $2.5 million on the first day alone. Talk about money on fire

Forget donating to other political candidates, that money could've gone to like...feeding hungry kids or something. Instead it will become mere ash. Sad!

TBF it goes to stimulating the Kentucky economy. Wait nvm just goes to DC consultants.

[lfromnj]

I love eating Popcorn between Icespear and Politican fueds.
I lean more towards Icespear anyway but both of them are massive FF posters to me on the congressional board. T

[lfromnj]

Mcconnel could raise a penny and still win by double digits in a mega recession

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

Yes, it seems Republicans are being much smarter about where they are putting their resources than democrats are. Watch us lose NC (and thus the majority) by like 500 votes or something like that all because Cunningham is woefully underfunded while McGrath meanwhile raised more than what he’s raised in a single day

Uh the base of both parties are idiots. See AOC.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

Yes, it seems Republicans are being much smarter about where they are putting their resources than democrats are. Watch us lose NC (and thus the majority) by like 500 votes or something like that all because Cunningham is woefully underfunded while McGrath meanwhile raised more than what he’s raised in a single day

Uh the base of both parties are idiots. See AOC.

True. But you don’t see that guy raising $10 million for said unwinnable race

I think that was just one candidate . There are like 3 more grifters for AOCs district .Add in more house ds like Maxine waters and Omar.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the one good thing for R's for losing KY gov is that Mcgrath might actually outfundraise Beto here with none of the downballot effects either(ok maybe KY06 could flip if Trump is losing big nationally too)

[lfromnj]

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.