will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[Vepres]

I will have an answer, but my psychic abilities have been weakened, and I won't have an answer until October 31, 2012. Then I shall give you my prediction.

[Vepres]

I think he'll be re-elected probably like Clinton was, status-quo style.
By 2012, assuming no major blips, the economy will have improved, and justified or not, Obama can take credit for it. Most serious Republican contenders will wait for 2016. I hope that whoever we nominate can lose respectably somewhere around 4%. Until we know who the GOP nominee is, here is my map.

Indiana I think was a fluke, and if the Nebraska legislature makes it winner-take-all, then NE-2 automatically goes GOP.

Missouri is the most obvious one of the McCain states to switch, as would be Arizona without McCain.
North Carolina will probably vote for Obama again as will Virginia.

I can't see Obama making enough gains into Georgia to flip it, nor Texas. Montana and South Dakota tend to be anti-incumbent, so I kept those GOP.

This Is quite Likely the map for 2012 especilly If things keep going as they are now.Even against Palin or Gingrich Obama will not have a Reagan ELectoral landslide.He could get up to 55 percent of the popular vote but Alaska,Utuh,Wyoming,Idaho,The Dakotas,and most of the South will never be carried by Obama.Indiana Is the Obama state most likely to flip back to Republicans but remember also Democrats have thought they could take back West Virginia after what they thought was a fluke In 2000.Hasn't happened.Missouri Is the Mccain State most likely to flip to Obama.And with Mccain not running Arizona will be a a battleground and Republicans better stop ailenating hispanic voters.If Obama Is still In high approvol ratings and the Republicans are In bad shape they Georgia and Montana might come Into play.Right now I would call them for whoever wins the Republican nomination.

You're saying Obama is invincible 3 1/2 years out.

You know, they said the same about George H.W. Bush, Carter, and Johnson (who didn't even run his odds were so bad).

[Vepres]

Well, I hate to be the one to tell you that you are as big a dumbass as everyone thinks, but you are.  Obama is hardly a "master debater" (he's sub-par at best).  The only thing he's good at is framing the issues so that he favors him, which wasn't exactly difficult last year.  This far out, it's way too early to say what will happen in 2012, but to say that the only way Obama loses is if a thermonuclear holocaust occurs is beyond stupid.

I agree. Obama just tied with McCain in the debates, despite McCain being erratic, off-message, and the political climate favoring Obama significantly.

One thing that may hurt Obama is that he's not following through on his promises of bipartisanship. Apparently, he hasn't contacted one republican on the healthcare bill that is being drafted (by all Democrats).

[Vepres]

In 2012, if 1) the economy has rebounded nicely; 2) there are no unpopular foreign wars and 3) there is no major scandal in which the president is complicit, Obama wins re-election - and handsomely

What if all that happens healthcare blows up in his face? I know Clinton survived, but unlike Clinton, Obama practically made universal healthcare the center of his campaign.