🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Liberal MP for Cloverdale-Langley City is resigning his seat to run for the BC NDP in this year's election. Should be a relatively easy CPC pickup.

Jumping off a sinking ship to be a sacrificial lamb? OK

Running for the NDP in Langley-Abbotsford is certainly a choice. 338Canada currently has the NDP at 29% support with a 2% chance of winning. Yet in Cloverdale-Langley City, LPC is projected to get 26% with 0% chance of winning. On top of that there's the uncertainty of whether or not this BC Conservative wave is actually going to last the writ period, and somehow, this might actually be the smarter play for John Aldag.

[DistingFlyer]

Anyway, for those keeping score at home, today is the Pictou West by-election.

After 30 minutes the first polls have come in, with the new Tory candidate doing extremely well so far.

Wasn't quite sure how this would go - in terms of whether the Tory vote would rise or fall, not whether he'd win the seat - as a new candidate replacing a long-standing member will usually see a reduced majority no matter how strong the party's provincewide polling (see the 2019 by-elections). On the other hand, the Tories' poll numbers, both provincial and federal, have been very good indeed lately, and the Tories have shown they can put up a good ground game at by-elections (particularly when hoping to gain a seat, as in 2019, 2020 & 2023).

[DistingFlyer]

Now 21 of 29 polls in, with the Tories getting over 71% of the vote (and the Liberals falling to a poor third).

If these percentages hold, this will be the biggest by-election victory (for any party) since Harold Connolly won Halifax North in 1936 with 79%.

With the Tory & NDP numbers rising (the former more so), and the Liberal vote well down, this does seem fairly reflective of the various parties' current poll standings relative to the last election.

[DistingFlyer]

Pictou West count completed:

Marco MacLeod (PC) - 4159 (72.5%) (+8.9%)
Melinda MacKenzie (NDP) - 949 (16.5%) (+4.2%)
Mary Wooldridge-Elliott (Lib) - 548 (9.6%) (-11.9%)
Clare Brett (GP) - 82 (1.4%) (-0.3%)

Good night for the Tories, while the NDP can take some solace as well; bloody awful for the Grits though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Popular provincial government + unpopular federal government = landslide win.

[DL]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

The Nova Scotia Liberal leader being 'dreadful' goes to show you never can tell. In the Yes, Minister television series, they referred to this as 'suck it and see.' When Iain Rankin and the other two ran for Liberal leader in 2021, the comments were along the lines of 'none of the top Liberal cabinet ministers who would make for obvious party leader and Premier are running', and then would get mentioned Kelly Regan, Zach Churchill and sometimes Derek Mombourquette.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

[DistingFlyer]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

Could happen even if the Grits edge them out for second in terms of vote share (as happened in 2003, and as happened vis-a-vis the Tories in 1945).

[DL]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

Its not just this byelection - also what happened in Preston

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

Its not just this byelection - also what happened in Preston

The NDP lost vote share in Preston, even if they finished ahead of the Liberals. Grasping at straws, really. At least in Pictou their vote share went up.

[DL]

In Preston the NDP vote went down 1% - the Liberal votes went down 20%...it just seems like the bottom is falling out of Liberal support in Nova Scotia - and I think federal Liberal cabinet minister Sean Fraser could be in big trouble in the next federal election - and Pictou is in that federal seat 

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the Liberals are in big trouble in Nova Scotia everywhere