🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Horus]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

[President Johnson]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Zero. FDP and Linke don't fit together. How is that supposed to work? Die Linke is way to the left of the SPD even on economic issues, where the FDP is classical liberal or center-right (and liberal on social issues). There are already obstacles for SPD-Green-Linke and SPD-Green-FDP, though both are possible. The latter certainly more so, and just today Baerbock expressed skepticism about Die Linke and their foreign policy.

Trafficlight is easily my preference, though SPD-Greens alone would even be better with Die Linke droping below five percent. That's not likely though.

[Horus]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Zero. FDP and Linke don't fit together. How is that supposed to work? Die Linke is way to the left of the SPD even on economic issues, where the FDP is classical liberal or center-right (and liberal on social issues). There are already obstacles for SPD-Green-Linke and SPD-Green-FDP, though both are possible. The latter certainly more so, and just today Baerbock expressed skepticism about Die Linke and their foreign policy.

Trafficlight is easily my preference, though SPD-Greens alone would even be better with Die Linke droping below five percent. That's not likely though.

I guess libertarian socialism isn't a thing in Germany

In all seriousness traffic light seems okay, though green parties have a tendency to be preachy and myopic.

[The Mikado]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Zero. FDP and Linke don't fit together. How is that supposed to work? Die Linke is way to the left of the SPD even on economic issues, where the FDP is classical liberal or center-right (and liberal on social issues). There are already obstacles for SPD-Green-Linke and SPD-Green-FDP, though both are possible. The latter certainly more so, and just today Baerbock expressed skepticism about Die Linke and their foreign policy.

Trafficlight is easily my preference, though SPD-Greens alone would even be better with Die Linke droping below five percent. That's not likely though.

I guess libertarian socialism isn't a thing in Germany

In all seriousness traffic light seems okay, though green parties have a tendency to be preachy and myopic.

I really think you need to look up what "Die Linke" is, where it comes from, and what it's about. You're clearly having a bit of trouble with understanding why a libertarian free market party would never dream of sitting in the same coalition with the renamed remnants of the old state party of East Germany.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Alcibiades]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of Americans entering the international elections board until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

It's about as likely as AOC endorsing Donald Trump in 2024.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Sorry to pile on but let me just say: this will definitely never happen but even if it happened we can assure you that the problems of somehow keeping together the radical leftist party descended from the SED and the right-liberal party would make whatever drawbacks the Greens have (which is presumably what brought you to formulate this bizarre preference) look vanishingly small in comparison.

[buritobr]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Any chance of a Clinton's wing of Democratic Party - Libertarian Party - Sanders's wing of Democratic Party coalition in the US? That would be my preference

[RodPresident]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

[crals]

How libertarian is the FDP nowadays anyway? I would presume they moved a bit closer to the center considering all the traffic light talk?

[Astatine]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

[njwes]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

Is it that the Danish and Frisian minority communities in Germany are constitutionally allowed to "endorse" a party to represent them,* and then that party is exempt from the threshold? Or rather, is it that the SSW, the party itself, is recognized in the Constitution as being by definition the party for Frisians and Danes--and thus exempted?

Sorry if it seems like splitting hairs! But I'm curious


*Perhaps through their ethnic organizations or whatever

[Хahar 🤔]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

Is it that the Danish and Frisian minority communities in Germany are constitutionally allowed to "endorse" a party to represent them,* and then that party is exempt from the threshold? Or rather, is it that the SSW, the party itself, is recognized in the Constitution as being by definition the party for Frisians and Danes--and thus exempted?

Sorry if it seems like splitting hairs! But I'm curious


*Perhaps through their ethnic organizations or whatever

The electoral commission makes the decision to recognize a particular party as representative of a national minority (although they are limited to the four officially recognized minorities: Sorbs, Danes, Frisians, and Roma). Prior to this election, the electoral commission officially recognized the SSW as the party of Danes and Frisians in Schleswig-Holstein. It appears that this was a determination of the electoral commission itself rather than of any representative organizations (although presumably the opinions of such organizations could be considered). No other party was recognized as a minority party.

I don't speak German and I've gleaned all of this through Google Translate, but a brief explanation is here: https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/info/presse/mitteilungen/bundestagswahl-2021/16_21_parteien-nationaler-minderheiten.html

[President Johnson]

New poll BAVARIA:

CSU: 28% (-1)
SPD: 18% (+3)
GRÜNE: 17% (-1)
FDP: 12% (-1)
AfD: 11% (+1)
FW: 6%
LINKE: 4% (+1)
Others: 4% (-2)

(changes to last poll on Sept. 7)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437653440621158400

Certainly not boding well for the Union, including Sonnenkönig Söder. 28% for the CSU would be a complete disaster. That's 11% less than 2017, which was already considered a debacle and contributed to Horst Seehofer losing his job as Minister-President.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437729457964474371

No movement between SPD and Union in the GMS-poll. The movement from Grüne to FDP however puts R2G in peril.

[palandio]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

Is it that the Danish and Frisian minority communities in Germany are constitutionally allowed to "endorse" a party to represent them,* and then that party is exempt from the threshold? Or rather, is it that the SSW, the party itself, is recognized in the Constitution as being by definition the party for Frisians and Danes--and thus exempted?

Sorry if it seems like splitting hairs! But I'm curious


*Perhaps through their ethnic organizations or whatever

The electoral commission makes the decision to recognize a particular party as representative of a national minority (although they are limited to the four officially recognized minorities: Sorbs, Danes, Frisians, and Roma). Prior to this election, the electoral commission officially recognized the SSW as the party of Danes and Frisians in Schleswig-Holstein. It appears that this was a determination of the electoral commission itself rather than of any representative organizations (although presumably the opinions of such organizations could be considered). No other party was recognized as a minority party.

I don't speak German and I've gleaned all of this through Google Translate, but a brief explanation is here: https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/info/presse/mitteilungen/bundestagswahl-2021/16_21_parteien-nationaler-minderheiten.html

If I understand correctly in theory more than one party can represent a national minority.

In case of the SSW the electoral commission argued that it was representing the Danish and Frisian minority, relevant criteria were:
- The origin of the party (i.e. it was founded by Danes and Frisians)
- The personell of the party (i.e. its current functionaries are usually Danes and Frisians)
- The program of the party (i.e. the representation of Danish and Frisian minority interests is at the core of its political program).

If there were a second party fulfilling these points in the same way then I can't see why it wouldn't be granted the same privileges.

[Astatine]

If I understand correctly in theory more than one party can represent a national minority.

In case of the SSW the electoral commission argued that it was representing the Danish and Frisian minority, relevant criteria were:
- The origin of the party (i.e. it was founded by Danes and Frisians)
- The personell of the party (i.e. its current functionaries are usually Danes and Frisians)
- The program of the party (i.e. the representation of Danish and Frisian minority interests is at the core of its political program).

If there were a second party fulfilling these points in the same way then I can't see why it wouldn't be granted the same privileges.

Actually, there is a party (or political organization, since it hasn't run for state or federal elections in some time) that claims to only represent the Frisian minority - the party "Die Friesen". Lower Saxony doesn't provide any special rules for minority parties on statewide level, against which "Die Friesen" filed a lawsuit, but iirc, that was rejected, and the party doesn't seem to be really active anymore.

The SSW has been debating for quite a long on whether to run for federal elections and the decision to run this year was neither uncontroversial nor unanimous. Some politicians of the party argue that running in the federal elections might endanger the party's recognition as minority representation party. I could actually see that, from what I've seen about the SSW in the federal campaign it seems like the party is running on a "bring home the pork to Schleswig-Holstein" platform, which is not really what a minority representation party is supposed to do.

The SSW might be in larger trouble if it wins a majority of its votes in Holstein (Southern S-H) instead of Schleswig (Northern S-H), since Holstein is not the native region of Danes and Frisians.

The Sorbs have organized within a party called the "Lausitzer Allianz", which intended to run in the 2019 elections in Saxony and Brandenburg. Saxony doesn't have extra rules for minority parties, while Brandenburg would exempt the LA from the threshold - But the party was not allowed to run for formal reasons (lack of signatures etc.).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I do find it curious how there's no minority party for the Roma or Sorbs organized despite it theroticaly being possible.

[Astatine]

I do find it curious how there's no minority party for the Roma or Sorbs organized despite it theroticaly being possible.

The Sorbian party exists and even has local councillors, and there is a chance the party might run in the 2024 Brandenburg state elections. But there is no Sinti & Roma party indeed.

A reason for that might be that although such parties are exempted from the threshold, still a significant number of votes is needed (~50,000) to enter the Bundestag. And while Frisians, Danes and Sorbs are mostly living in certain areas where it is easier to organize (the SSW, the Frisian party/political organization and the Lausitzer Allianz have some local representation), that's not the case for Sinti & Roma.

In fact, unlike in other countries, especially in Eastern Europe, minority representation is largely not perceived as a major issue here. In the 1871-1918 Empire and the Weimar Republic, Germany's then territory included areas with significant minorities such as Poles, Alsacians and Lothringians that also had parliamentary representation (in the 1907 elections for instance, 28/397 seats went to parties/politicians representing minorities).

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the most likely govt coalitions now that a minority govt is de facto not happening? The difficulty seems to be that one party has to "switch sides" since 3 partners are certainly required. Either Grune joins a CDU/FDP cabinet or FDP becomes part of a SPD/Grune govt. Option 1 is possibly more likely, even if the CDU ends up 2nd?
 
Never expected this race to become so interesting in the closing weeks. That said, I'm still afraid a ton of CDU voters holding their noses and vote for the party in the last second, denying SPD the victory are polls are indicating. That said, the stability confirms SPD momentum is real.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never expected this race to become so interesting in the closing weeks. That said, I'm still afraid a ton of CDU voters holding their noses and vote for the party in the last second, denying SPD the victory are polls are indicating. That said, the stability confirms SPD momentum is real.

One of the reasons for the general sense of blind panic in the CDU is that even if they were modestly ahead, they would not be best placed to lead a government and would still suffer a huge loss of MdBs. Serious speculation about Scholz as Chancellor started before polling showed the SPD pulling ahead.

[President Johnson]

Meh, one of Scholz' state secretaries at the Finance Ministery is now under investigation for posting part of the search warrent issued by a court on Twitter. He wanted to "prove" there are differences between the warrant and the attorney's public statement. Not sure whether this is going anywhere, and not a major news story, but still worries me.

Furthermore, the same Austrian guy who made accusations of plagarism against Baerbock and Laschet now says at least three passages in Scholz' book may also be copied (in Laschet's case it's 17). I think this is a smear campaign against all candidates, especially Baerbock.


Another Forsa poll from today (little move and small rebound for Laschet after the 19% poll):

SPD: 25%
CDU/CSU: 21% (+2)
GRÜNE: 17%
FDP: 11% (-2)
AfD: 11%
LINKE: 6%
FW: 3%
Others: 6% (-2)

(changes to last poll on Sept. 7)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437767740270465028

[buritobr]

I am watching some parts of the junior debate. We can see:

Janine Wissler - Linke
Alexander Dobrindt - CSU
Christian Lindner - FDP
Alice Weidel - AfD

Maybe, only one day difference to the main debate was too few, people might be tired of debates. But no problem, it is possible to watch every time at Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtZ2FPAo2OU

1 very left-wing candidate, 3 conservatives

Many interruptions

[Astatine]

If I were Christian Lindner, I would be somewhat worried about the most recent poll numbers. The Allensbach poll (9.5 %) might have been an outlier, but the significant drops in the YouGov and Forsa polls (10 %/-3, 11 %/‐2) might be a sign that CDU/CSU voters are coming home to prevent the SPD from becoming largest party.