Which incumbent senator has the better chances of being reelected?

[Del Tachi]

Interested to know what "muh fundamentals" Atlas thinks of this question. 

The correct answer is Dean Heller, ofc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jones might be the surprise winner in 2020

[smoltchanov]

Heller. Would he be a Senator from Massachusetts or Vermont - another matter.

[Zaybay]

I know this is a trap question, but Im going to go with neither. They have around the same chance.

Heller has the state partisan lean to his advantage, being only a tilt-D state. But he himself is tarnished. Hes one of the most hated senators currently, and has little to no chance of reelection.

Doug Jones has the opposite problem. He has a very high popularity rate, and is viewed as a moderate voice, but the state lean is highly against him. He has a small chance of reelection.

So, if I had a gun to my head, I would say Jones, because of his personal popularity and Democrat's ability to win in states they should never win in based on personal brand. I give Jones 25%, currently, and Heller 10%. Heller is just screwed, hes messed up too much, and has had the worst luck thrown at him(going full Trump to win a primary, and then that opponent dropping out, forcing him to repivot again). The SC seat will probably seal his demise.

[Del Tachi]

Jones, and it’s not even close. NV is Likely D, AL is a Tossup at best for Republicans.

Why do you think that Nevada is non-competitive?

[ON Progressive]

Heller's fundamentals are pretty bad across the board, but Alabama's sheer partisanship and extremely low elasticity is enough that Jones having high approval doesn't matter much.

Both will likely lose, but Heller has a better shot.

[IceSpear]

Both are heavy underdogs. But Heller if forced to choose, I guess.

[Orser67]

Jones. I think Heller is the clear underdog, whereas I'd say Jones is probably a little less than 50/50 to win re-election. The biggest issue for me is that it looks pretty clear that 2018 will be a Democratic wave, whereas it's hard to say with 2020.

[Yellowhammer]

Jones has about a 5% chance of being re-elected, so I’ll have to go with Heller.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Heller for sure.

[NewYorkExpress]

Neither are going to win re-election.

Heller is basically doomed, and Jones only wins if Republicans nominate Roy Moore again, or if President Trump is indicted shortly before election day (in which case he still wins Alabama, but the reduced margin of victory carries Jones over the finish line).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jones will win reelection, Heller is the most endangered inc this year

[Beet]

Jones, and it’s not even close. NV is Likely D, AL is a Tossup at best for Republicans.

Why do you think that Nevada is non-competitive?

It’s not safe, but Heller is definitely in big trouble for obvious reasons (low approval rating, Clinton state, Democratic year, etc.). Jones has a much better chance of winning since red state voters care more about personality/charisma than voting records, he’s a stronger incumbent than Heller, and we don’t know what the national environment in 2020 will be like.

This is probably the worst analysis I have seen from you.

[UncleSam]

It’s Heller, though not by much. There’s no reason to think he is DOA based on the polls conducted thus far, and Mevada is a much more R-friendly state during midterm elections. Additionally, Nevada has a relatively low white college educated population, which is the demographic that Rs have been doing worst amongst comparatively since 2016.

Conversely, there’s little reason to think Jones can make Alabama a race in a presidential year. His win was a case of an extremely lucky draw combined with an amazing national environment and a special election turnout level.

The difference, however, is pretty small. Heller has probably a 5-10% chance of winning this year, and Jones is somewhere between 1-3%. Neither is remotely likely to survive.

[cwt]

Jones.

It's a lot more common to see multi-term Democratic senators in red states than vice versa.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Jones obviously.

We know 2018 is a D-leaning year, very likely dooming Heller, while it's too early to predict the political environment in 2020.

If Heller was up for re-election in two years time as well I'd go with him, but we simply have more information on the difficulties he faces than we do for Jones.

[The Other Castro]

Jones, and it’s not even close. NV is Likely D, AL is a Tossup at best for Republicans.

Why do you think that Nevada is non-competitive?

It’s not safe, but Heller is definitely in big trouble for obvious reasons (low approval rating, Clinton state, Democratic year, etc.). Jones has a much better chance of winning since red state voters care more about personality/charisma than voting records, he’s a stronger incumbent than Heller, and we don’t know what the national environment in 2020 will be like.

While I might not go as far as calling NV Likely D, I agree with the sentiment that it is certainly favored for Democrats in this environment given what we can reasonably assume at this time, while much uncertainty remains for an incumbent senator's chances in an election more than two years away.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Heller's fundamentals are pretty bad across the board, but Alabama's sheer partisanship and extremely low elasticity is enough that Jones having high approval doesn't matter much.

Both will likely lose, but Heller has a better shot.