Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[Epaminondas]

If NSW flips, would that mean Labour is statistically back to its 2007 grip over state legislatures?

[Epaminondas]

Isn't Ryde still on track to be won by Labour? That would bring them to 46.

Is the shocking turnaround turnaround due to voting pattern among certain demographics? (e.g. old people voting early for the Coalition)

Almost all the nail-biters seem to have been won by the losing party, just like in the 2022 federal election. Dreadful luck.

[Epaminondas]

Onto the NSW Liberal leadership election!

Hang on, why are the counts for the last constituencies still stuck at 76% on media outlets? Esp. Ryde and Terrigal.

[Epaminondas]

(If you allocate crossbench seats on 2pp it looks pretty normal. 2019 had 52/48 come to 53/40 in seats. This time ~53/47 will come to ~51/42 in seats.)

Yes, this is the very definition of hard done.

[Epaminondas]

Hard done by is Federal 1998 or the average SA election. Labor’s just where you’d expect a narrow government defeat to be with an anemic primary vote.

Simple:
- When the PV loser wins an election, it's a travesty. Like Federal 1998, 1990, 1969, 1961, 1954, 1940.
- When the winner earns a lower share of seats than its 2PP share, they're hard done.

Trying to conflate the two just reveals a lack of belief in fair democratic representation. But given that splits have almost always favoured the Cons, I can see how you'd get to that point.