IA-Selzer: Ernst +4

[Skye]

Because of course people aren't reading anything other than the headline, no, undecideds are not at double digits:

Another 3% say they plan to vote for someone else, 1% do not plan to vote in the Senate race, 3% are unsure and 4% already voted but did not want to say which candidate they support.

[S019]

Not even going to be pretend to be shocked or disappointed, I always expected Ernst to pull this one out (and this was never going to be anywhere near the tipping point).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Great and surprising news. Of all the Senate races, this is probably the one I'd most like Republicans to hold. Easily the most respectable Senate candidate. Thom Tillis was always disliked and barely won last time, Collins is not long for this world and probably deserves to lose for being such a tool, and the Georgia Senate candidates are all buffoons.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well f***. Why the f*** does Ernst have to be leading now, after trailing most of the year?! I knew I couldn't trust this state. Don't f*** this up Georgia, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina!

Trump is also probably favored again as well, though that actually concerns me less.

[swf541]

Before anyone freaks out about Senate control remaining Republican, this seat was never likely to be the tipping point and there's a whole host of more favorable polling in NC/ME/GA/even MT to go against that idea.

Also given the EV so far in Iowa I question the accuracy of the poll.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322675240145739776

[VAR]

Too many undecideds to be of much use. I’ll concede I probably jumped the gun saying Lean D (in fairness so did some of those forecasts), but it’s a toss-up and I’m not giving up on Greenfield yet.

I agree, it’s still no better than Tossup/Tilt R for Ernst. Let’s wait for the presidential numbers.

[ElectionWatcher25]

Here's one tidbit I found interesting...

Greenfield Support:
Men: 33%
Women: 51%

CNN Exit Polls 2016 for Iowa Clinton Support:
Men: 33%
Women: 51%

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322675240145739776

That right there is unbelievable. Independents have been Democratic leaning in most places this cycle.

[wesmoorenerd]

Snarky and obnoxious IndyRep comment incoming

[Splash]

Ugh.

The preponderance of evidence is pointing to an Ernst victory but let's not pretend that Selzer is infallible; they did have Hubbell winning in their last poll from 2018.

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, don't waste your time picking apart the crosstabs. We all did the same thing in 2016 when Selzer had Trump +7 here. It's over.

[VAR]

I love this state so much.

[DrScholl]

Guys, don't waste your time picking apart the crosstabs. We all did the same thing in 2016 when Selzer had Trump +7 here. It's over.

But in 2016 most pollsters had Trump leading. This year polling is far different. This poll is an outlier.

[Mr.Phips]

God I’ll be pissed if Biden is also ahead here.  If it’s damn split ticket voters that cost Dems the Senate...

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322675240145739776

Indies in Iowa are notorious for hating soybeans.

[S019]

Also if Democrats lose here, I hope this a lesson for them not to spend millions in the 2022 Senate race, and instead spend that money in places like PA, AZ, GA, where it can actually be useful.

[GALeftist]

Why live

[VAR]

God I’ll be pissed if Biden is also ahead here.  If it’s damn split ticket voters that cost Dems the Senate...

Why would any Biden voter split their ticket for Ernst?

[BudgieForce]

God I’ll be pissed if Biden is also ahead here.  If it’s damn split ticket voters that cost Dems the Senate...

Why would any Democrat split their ticket for Ernst?

If you look at the poll, there was a huge jump in independent support for Ernst. Could be Biden voters who want a check on him?

We'll find out in 15 minutes.

[Skye]

Also, since apparently a board full of people who constantly analyze polls in their free time needs to hear it:

Margins. Of. Error. Exist.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Guys, don't waste your time picking apart the crosstabs. We all did the same thing in 2016 when Selzer had Trump +7 here. It's over.

But in 2016 most pollsters had Trump leading. This year polling is far different. This poll is an outlier.

Quinnipiac released a poll a few days ago, showing Ernst up 2 points..

So no, it's not a outlier.

[Pyro]

Ernst getting a 23-point swing from Independents is something else.

Anyway, Lean R, just crossing the threshold from Tilt.

[Mr.Phips]

God I’ll be pissed if Biden is also ahead here.  If it’s damn split ticket voters that cost Dems the Senate...

Why would any Democrat split their ticket for Ernst?

If you look at the poll, there was a huge jump in independent support for Ernst. Could be Biden voters who want a check on him?

We'll find out in 15 minutes.

Democrats should not be trying to turn out voters that will vote for Biden and just desert the party downballot.

[President Johnson]

Meh.

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322676691853082629