The absentee/early vote thread

[PresidentTRUMP]

I could be wrong, but i was under the assumption from previous elections that early voting usually was prodmitally an advantage for the democrat nominee as most of those votes went to that candidate.

If thats true, anywhere early voting is down compared to 2008 and 2012 is probably a good thing for republicans as there base typically votes more aggressively on the actual election day.

[PresidentTRUMP]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

Also, there was a report on either NBC or something like that explaining that Hurricane Matthew is to blame. A black woman explained that voting was not her priority but finding a place to live is #1.

hmmmm or maybe, just maybe its that Obama isn't on the top of the ticket this year and Hillary Clinton is.....nah that couldn't be the reason, doesn't make sense.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

Yes, except these are first time voters, meaning they're registering as a Democrat or a Republican this year for the first time and voting. Clear Clinton advantage.

Oh well, if its new voters just eligible to vote that are being considered new voters than yes without question HUGE advantage Clinton, elections over.

If its eligible voters for over 20+ years that are voting for the first time but check if they are a D or R when they vote i still say advantage Trump. Trump isn't a "republican" in most peoples eyes, hes more of an independent that the left calls crazy and the people who like him call the change needed desperately in Washington.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Per Steve Schale,

"More Democrats have voted in Broward County today (+12,000) than Republicans have voted in Indian River over two weeks (7,500)."

"Already 20,000 more people in Broward County, FL have in person early voted today.  Roughly 3:1 Democratic so far."

So Florida based on this is Clintons and the election is over if the numbers are accurate.

[PresidentTRUMP]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

[PresidentTRUMP]

Ahhh yes your right, they are comparing to Primary, makes very little sense. Thought he was talking about early voting, my apologies!

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true? Even if true, trump will off-set that with whites with a high school degree or less who went Obama in 2012.

Are states actually showing the percentage for each candidate each day or is that all based on "assumptions"? If they are can you please provide the website so i can check the daily percentages per candidate. Thanks.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true?

The polls, all of them.

Ohhh the "polls" are, you mean the polls for example showing CLinton a week ago up 15% in a 4 way national race which is basically mathematically impossible? Or do you mean ALL of the polls showing Clinton up 20-35% in the Michigan Primary all the way up until the night before the primary, when she lost by 1-2 % to Sanders in the State. OVER a 20% swing of "all of the polls were showing". Those polls are what you guys are going off of, okay than.

Thought we had actual data showing who voted for who with all of the celebrating, lol. Was wondering if they were giving that info out on a daily basis, i didn't think they were but wasn't sure.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

In Florida, the good news for Clinton is that the two most Latino counties in the state, Miami-Dade and Osceola, are above the state average in their progress towards exceeding 2012 early/vote-by-mail turnout.

But the bad news for her is that turnout has lagged behind the state average in all five counties with the highest percentage of African-American voters

Lee County, a GOP bastion on the southwest Gulf Coast, is already at 125 percent of its 2012 total, and Sumter County, the ruby red home of The Villages, is at 104 percent, signaling increased GOP enthusiasm.

Huh...HRC already has Florida rapped up based on our early voting data, Media and this forum. Please don't post the 2nd half of what you did because it simply not true. HRC has FLorida locked up and early voting in Texas is showing us all also that it probably goes Hillary as well.

Need to get some early voting data from Alaska as well as that is probably looking like a flip to HRC as well.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona.  

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romney said he was going to deporte hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

[PresidentTRUMP]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

I just went back and still couldn't find it. But it's not unrealistic to think AA would be somewhat down this year. Hillary definitely is not Obama.

Hmmm you think? That's a shocker...

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

Just remember that about 1 million people who are Hispanic have registered to vote in Texas since 2012.  And the turnout is already about 40% higher than in 2012.  Texas will be closer.

I never stated it wouldn't be closer, but for people to suggest on here that it actually has a chance to flip D....is literally comical.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

[PresidentTRUMP]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

Like how you dismissed Hillary's lead in the PA poll but celebrated McGinty's lead in the same poll? I guess we all have our blind spots...

Look I am fine with HC win as long as we get Senate and flip SCOTUS and I will continue to believe we could've done better with another nominee. We could've flipped the House with Biden.

Yes, I am very very very thankful the D's ran HRC and Not Joe Biden, Biden would have won in a landslide for sure.

[PresidentTRUMP]

ABC/Washington Post Poll (post FBI re-investigation against Hillary)
Among those likely to vote on election day:
Trump - 50% (+11)
Clinton - 39%

If these numbers are remotely close to accurate HRC better build up a SUBSTANTIAL lead in these swing states in the battle ground areas.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

[PresidentTRUMP]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

if trump is going to have any chance of beating hillary in MI, he will have a big number of those D especially men voting for him. so it isn't a big deal this.

Agreed. Trump's only chance in Michigan is to win a ton of white blue collar male voters who always vote D but like Trumps message on trade for that state and bringing manufacturing jobs back. He would have to win a ton of those type of voters to squeak out a win there.

You would think his message would be ideal for a state like Michigan. Again the wild card will be does the AA vote significantly drop in cities like Detroit or not.