The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Texas could be a sleeper state this year. As I read in a previous analysis, HRC doesn't need to flip any more Texas counties as much as she needs to make the current ones more D, and this is a tell tale sign of it.

[dspNY]

Texas could be a sleeper state this year. As I read in a previous analysis, HRC doesn't need to flip any more Texas counties as much as she needs to make the current ones more D, and this is a tell tale sign of it.

She needs to flip Fort Bend (Sugar Land, west of Metro Houston), Tarrant (Fort Worth), Williamson (Round Rock, Georgetown), and Nueces while running up her margins in the big Texas metros (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin)

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.wfaa.com/mb/news/politics/early-voting-opening-shatters-turnout-records-in-n-texas/340992867

On the first day of early voting,

"In Tarrant County, that number was more than 43,000.

"In Tarrant County, 30,133 voters went to the polls on the first day of early voting in 2012 and 28,757 went on the first day of early voting in 2008.

In Collin County, that number was more than 30,000.

In Collin County, 16,531 votes were cast on the first day of early voting in 2012 and 13,900 went on the first day of early voting in 2008."

[Ebsy]

Wow, the surge is real.

[LimoLiberal]

Holy sh**t those Texas Numbers. Is there something we're missing here? Did they change their early vote system? The last 4 polls have shown Texas within 4 points, but I don't think most people have actually believed that. But if this holds up, who knows.

[Speed of Sound]

32,732 showed up to vote on day one in Travis County (Austin) today. In 2012, it was 16,378, meaning that day one Travis County early voting is up 100%.


Today's #s: https://twitter.com/TXCapTonight/status/790735127194308608
2012's: http://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2012-10-23/early-voting-results-day-one/

[ApatheticAustrian]

mcdonald regarding the dallas stuff:

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https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/790740761901867008

[psychprofessor]

texas gonna be close

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess there is a big enough pool of lazy conservative voters who would vote if the state is in "danger" of becoming blue (yaya, atlas-red :-P)....but it is going to be much closer than usual anyway.

[Holmes]

Democrats are banking so many votes already. If Republican turnout is depressed on election day like it is now during early voting, we'll see some crazy results.

[Speed of Sound]

"@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago

Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin."



https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790747032809943041

[Holmes]

"@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago

Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin."



https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790747032809943041

Pretty good. I'd expect more Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters to show up during weekends so it looks good for a Monday.

[NOVA Green]

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Hot dawg!!!!

My obsession with metro Houston has blinded me to the hidden Democratic base within Dallas County.

If these turnout numbers continue to hold it looks like Asian/Latinos are voting in force, while Black and Anglo voters are running out standard turnout levels.

# BattlegroundTexas is actually starting to look real considering early numbers from Harris and Dallas counties....

Still curious about Travis and Bexar returns on the first day of early voting, and assuming that El Paso will deliver strongly late in the end game.

[Speed of Sound]

Still curious about Travis

Here ya are:

32,732 showed up to vote on day one in Travis County (Austin) today. In 2012, it was 16,378, meaning that day one Travis County early voting is up 100%.


Today's #s: https://twitter.com/TXCapTonight/status/790735127194308608
2012's: http://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2012-10-23/early-voting-results-day-one/

[Holmes]

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Hot dawg!!!!

My obsession with metro Houston has blinded me to the hidden Democratic base within Dallas County.

If these turnout numbers continue to hold it looks like Asian/Latinos are voting in force, while Black and Anglo voters are running out standard turnout levels.

# BattlegroundTexas is actually starting to look real considering early numbers from Harris and Dallas counties....

Still curious about Travis and Bexar returns on the first day of early voting, and assuming that El Paso will deliver strongly late in the end game.

Bexar's up, but not as much as other metropolitan counties in the state.

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http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Early-voting-Bexar-County-record-10203591.php

And early voting in Travis has doubled per Speed of Sound's post.

[Xing]

Based on Ralston's Twitter, it seems he's pretty much calling NV for Clinton.

[Holmes]

Based on Ralston's Twitter, it seems he's pretty much calling NV for Clinton.

Yup. If things continue the way they are, Trump would need to win election day voting in the state by a 2:1 margin, maybe even more, to narrowly carry the state. Hillary will very likely get a double digit margin in the state.

[NOVA Green]

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Hot dawg!!!!

My obsession with metro Houston has blinded me to the hidden Democratic base within Dallas County.

If these turnout numbers continue to hold it looks like Asian/Latinos are voting in force, while Black and Anglo voters are running out standard turnout levels.

# BattlegroundTexas is actually starting to look real considering early numbers from Harris and Dallas counties....

Still curious about Travis and Bexar returns on the first day of early voting, and assuming that El Paso will deliver strongly late in the end game.

Bexar's up, but not as much as other metropolitan counties in the state.

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http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Early-voting-Bexar-County-record-10203591.php

And early voting in Travis has doubled per Speed of Sound's post.

So how is EV looking in El Paso County?

There were less than 180k votes cast in 2012 total in a county with > 1 Million population.

[Speed of Sound]

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And

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https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790758094598967296

[Dr. Arch]

Given NV margins and how TX is shaping up, it looks like AZ is almost certainly falling in HRC's column this year.

[Dr. Arch]

We're now officially past the 7 million mark per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Devout Centrist]

We're now officially past the 7 million mark per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

What was it in 2012?

[Dr. Arch]

We're now officially past the 7 million mark per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

What was it in 2012?

Not sure where to find that information. Anyone have an idea?

[Holmes]

Steve Schale really reveals his age when he refers to it as "Dade county".

[Doimper]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?