The absentee/early vote thread

[libertpaulian]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

Tough to tell.  What's odd is that 67% of all new and non-2012 voters in Florida are white.  I would have thought that the white vote was more maxed out than that similar to how the black vote appears.  Assumed that Hispanics would have made up a much higher portion of the new voters as they have had very low turnout rates in the past.  That's looks like a positive for Republicans honestly.

Unless a decent chunk of those white people are little old ladies who are near death and want to see a woman President before they kick the bucket.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

EV is becoming more popular, so probably no. Hard to say now.

[Ebsy]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

EV is becoming more popular, so probably no. Hard to say now.

What does that even mean?

[Virginiá]

I wonder if it is indeed the case that a rapid shift in enthusiasm occurs, that we will see in the early voting data by next weekend, or perhaps sooner?

[Hydera]

Except for those who arent voting and claim they arent going to vote "because i dont have time" after being told about absentee mail ballots when in reality they dont want to admit that their not going to vote.

I dont know why a large percentage of voters in states with early voting, place a huge importance on voting exactly on election day when they could of done it much earlier.  I remember hearing every election cycle about polling booths packed before the time is up for voting and many people on line leaving after being frustrated with being in line for so long. The Democrats did good communication this time to get people to vote early but the next four years and not even on election year should be focused on educating and convincing their voters to vote early if their state has the option.

[fldemfunds]

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

I wonder why that is. I would have to assume that such a drop right now is something that will eventually even out, even if only on election day. Even in 2004, before Obama, African American's share of the FL electorate was 12% (vs 13% in 2008/2012)

A 5% drop would be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

There has not been any weekend early voting yet, let alone the big souls to the polls drive. This weekend, Dems should take a decent lead in overall turnout. And in FL, NPAs/Independents tend to be Dem-leaning. So even though GOP ahead by 0.5%, HRC likely up 2-3% in overall voting.

[fldemfunds]

Based on EIP/VBM voting, I would not be surprised to see an HRC win by 5-7% in FL. It really depends on turnout on election day. Election day determines whether FL is bad for the GOP or atrocious for the GOP.

[HillOfANight]

Mark Rountree, the Landmark pollster, estimates Hillary could be ahead by 10K in the early vote for Georgia. He thinks she's doing better than Obama 2012 (Romney+8), worse than Obama 2008 (McCain+5)

This is despite the black share being down at 30% vs 33% at this point in 2012... Perhaps he's seeing an overrepresentation of whites that vote in the Democratic primaries.

https://twitter.com/MarkRountreeAtl/status/792072380902408192?lang=en

[ApatheticAustrian]

clark county (NV) looking stronger today....
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/792073071356108800?lang=de

[ApatheticAustrian]

Guilford is taking these new EV hours to heart. Over 20k voters today, only 2k below yesterday w/ hours to go
https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/792075656582537217?lang=de

is this a democratic county?

[Hydera]

Guilford is taking these new EV hours to heart. Over 20k voters today, only 2k below yesterday w/ hours to go
https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/792075656582537217?lang=de

is this a democratic county?

http://www.myguilford.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/os-stats-102816-234pm.pdf

African americans makeup 29% of the county but made up 35% of 42,000 early votes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

thank you...then this is going to be good.

[dspNY]

Guilford is taking these new EV hours to heart. Over 20k voters today, only 2k below yesterday w/ hours to go
https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/792075656582537217?lang=de

is this a democratic county?

57% Obama in 2012, so a good Democratic county

[psychprofessor]

clark county (NV) looking stronger today....
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/792073071356108800?lang=de

read between the lines, ralston thinks nevada is all but toast for trump

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

 Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  18,241,259 votes or 39.5% of the 2012 early vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

after this weekend some states will be "over".

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/28

Ballots requested:

DEM: 234,166
GOP: 187,627
IND: 122,490
Other: 1,700

Ballots cast:

DEM: 177,506
GOP: 136,957
IND: 83,126
Other: 1,142

Dems gain another 1K or so on ballot requests but the margin of ballots cast remains about the same

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems won 2012 by 6 points with a lead of 60k.

even 40k should be "enough" if their turnout works. contrary: this is the state with the best trump machine.

[dspNY]

dems won 2012 by 6 points with a lead of 60k.

even 40k should be "enough" if their turnout works. contrary: this is the state with the best trump machine.

I've said it multiple times, I think they need a 50K margin in party preference going into Election Day to win. 40K is very iffy. The numbers back a tie in Iowa which is what quinnipiac came up with

[psychprofessor]

dems won 2012 by 6 points with a lead of 60k.

even 40k should be "enough" if their turnout works. contrary: this is the state with the best trump machine.

I've said it multiple times, I think they need a 50K margin in party preference going into Election Day to win. 40K is very iffy. The numbers back a tie in Iowa which is what quinnipiac came up with

I just read somewhere that Clinton's inner circle believes Arizona is more likely to go to Clinton than Iowa. Either way, she'll be in both states next week :-)

[Ebsy]

from michael:

turnout up everywhere...besides midwest.

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

[ApatheticAustrian]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

[MasterJedi]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

[Crumpets]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?