The Wisconsin Survey: Every Democrat leads easily

[pbrower2a]

I guess the Republican sweep of the upper Midwest will have to wait for another cycle.

So will a Democratic sweep of the Midwest, as Democrats are not going to win either of the Dakotas, four of five electoral votes of Nebraska, or Kansas this time.

Even Indiana is iffy this early.

[pbrower2a]

WI is clearly suppose to be a tossup. And Dems lead in OH. So, all Dems need is Pa and clinch the election.

In Wisconsin the Republican Party is basically "damaged goods" because of the conduct of the Governor. When Wisconsin polls were out of line with the rest of America I could see such as an anomaly with Wisconsin going D+15 as if it were Massachusetts in an election that Hillary Clinton could lose. Anomalies happen.

The Zogby poll in Ohio suggests that Republicans have a different problem in Ohio. Ohio is close to the national average in political affiliations and is more a trend-follower than a trend-setter in politics. Republicans have made their agenda national, and if it implodes in Ohio it is imploding elsewhere.

Recent polls involving Hillary Clinton mostly show her against Republicans as she seemed to have the server 'scandal' and the death of a consular official as political baggage. That is what we see in Pennsylvania and Virginia -- maybe Colorado and Iowa as well. The server 'scandal' proves to be nothing, and Hillary Clinton has convinced about everyone that the horrible incident was a fluid situation that nobody could have micromanaged from Washington, DC.

If you have any familiarity with the Star Trek universe, this is the Kobiyashi Maru scenario -- a no-win situation which shows how a prospective high officer will deal with defeat and mortality even if not one's own. Presidents, Secretaries of Defense, senior military officers,  and Secretaries of State can all find themselves in such a situation; then comes the test of character. Can one make a mistake in such a situation? There may be no right answer -- but there are plenty of wrong ones, and some wrong answers (like cracking up, going numb, or developing a vengeful anger) demonstrate unsuitability to some situations of sure failure.   

PPP polls North Carolina this weekend, and the results will be the first that will show the consequences of the failed inquisition. That Joe Biden has halted his prospective campaign before it started indicates that he had an idea of what would happen.

North Carolina is about R+5. Should Hillary Clinton be in even a virtual tie with Republicans in
her binary match-ups, then she has solved her problems.

Surely you have seen my  match-up maps. Like any map they are obsolete even before I post them. Political reality changes frequently based on events.

[pbrower2a]

This is my latest map (10/24), and it shows the most recent polls of New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin. It also shows obsolete polls, including one that shows  Jeb Bush tied with Hillary Clinton in Arizona and Donald Trump tied with Hillary Clinton in Kentucky; I don't take those seriously any more. Those polls could be six months old, for all I know.

Polls in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are not so blatantly obsolete -- but wouldn't we all like to see how those polls go after prospective voters recognize that the former Secretary of State has been vindicated? Have patience. Count on fresh polls of those legitimate swing states because they have been polled frequently.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

This is a very promising map for Rubio, if it holds up with new polls being added in the next feek weeks.

There will be some interesting polls over the next couple of weeks. Quinnipiac usually polls Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia together -- and it is about time this week. Within a couple weeks they will poll Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton's approvals have been down -- way down -- during  the derogatory coverage of the server 'scandal' and the Benghazi tragedy. Hillary Clinton acquitted herself very well. I expect her binary match-ups to look better for her, including against Rubio.

There was a poll of Ohio, and in it Hillary Clinton gained on everyone except Marco Rubio. She was not polled against Rubio. Sure, the poll is by Zogby (who gets little respect). But suspect non-partisan pollsters sometimes get their act together. Give her Ohio, and things don't look so great for Rubio.