Ben, pardoning Nixon was one of the best things that Ford did. It may in fact be one of the smartest decisions a President has ever made. I think that many of the american people knew that too, but they just had such great hatred for Nixon at that time that they could not quite swallow it.
I think that Ford would have won if it were not for that gaffe that he made in the foreign policy debate.
I think if Ford did not pardon Nixon, he would have lost by a larger margin since Nixon would have been sued and likely found guilty and put in jail, which would damage all Republicans nationwide (including Ford) due to guilt by association. This damage might have been much worse than the damage Ford received when he pardoned Nixon, since many people would have been disgusted at a former President for going to jail and would have severely blamed the Republicans for nominating this crook (Nixon) for President three times. Also, you got to remember that the economy was in poor shape in 1976. Unemployment stagnated at about 8% the entire year, and inflation was also kinda high at 5%.
I agree with both of you