What should Ford have done in order to win in 1976?

[Bo]

I'm thinking he should have retained Rockefeller as VP, he should have criticzed Carter more severely about his inexperience, and finally, he should have not made that "there is no Soveit domination of Eastern Europe" gaffe. Maybe he should have also talked about how the economy is recovering and try to pin the blame for the poor economy on the OPEC Arab states, even though I'm not sure that it would have helped much since unemployment stagnated at around 8% throughout 1976.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not pardoning Nixon.

[Psychic Octopus]

Not pardoning Nixon.

No, that would have had him lose anyway.

Not making the "Poland" comment would have given him a chance.

[Bo]

Not pardoning Nixon.

I think if Ford did not pardon Nixon, he would have lost by a larger margin since Nixon would have been sued and likely found guilty and put in jail, which would damage all Republicans nationwide (including Ford) due to guilt by association. This damage might have been much worse than the damage Ford received when he pardoned Nixon, since many people would have been disgusted at a former President for going to jail and would have severely blamed the Republicans for nominating this crook (Nixon) for President three times. Also, you got to remember that the economy was in poor shape in 1976. Unemployment stagnated at about 8% the entire year, and inflation was also kinda high at 5%.

[DS0816]

Gerald Ford was going to get defeated. Low-approval and the Nixon White House Years killed his 1976 shot at winning.

Due to the unelectablility of 1972 George McGovern, 1976 Jimmy Carter had a hell of a margin deficit to make up (also true of 1968 Richard Nixon following 1964 Barry Goldwater; in both elections the loser failed to get 40 percent of the vote).

My take is that Carter should've landslided the hell out Ford. Many states were under three points, including bellweters Nevada and New Mexico. California and Illinois could've, and should've, flipped for the Dems and Carter. Oregon and Washington were close. Iowa was close. In New England, Connecticut and Maine were five points or under. Even Ford's home state, Michigan, was five points. New Jersey was close as well. It's the type of election where, had Carter shifted four more points in the popular, he would've had a 400-plus victory in the Electoral College.

[Bo]

Gerald Ford was going to get defeated. Low-approval and the Nixon White House Years killed his 1976 shot at winning.

Due to the unelectablility of 1972 George McGovern, 1976 Jimmy Carter had a hell of a margin deficit to make up (also true of 1968 Richard Nixon following 1964 Barry Goldwater; in both elections the loser failed to get 40 percent of the vote).

My take is that Carter should've landslided the hell out Ford. Many states were under three points, including bellweters Nevada and New Mexico. California and Illinois could've, and should've, flipped for the Dems and Carter. Oregon and Washington were close. Iowa was close. In New England, Connecticut and Maine were five points or under. Even Ford's home state, Michigan, was five points. New Jersey was close as well. It's the type of election where, had Carter shifted four more points in the popular, he would've had a 400-plus victory in the Electoral College.

Despite his advantages, Carter was certainly beatable in 1976. Even a 1% swing in favor of Ford would have allowed him to win. Ford screwed up by making that "Poland" gaffe, by not criticizng Carter's inexperience enough, by not talking enough about the economic recovery, and by dropping Rockefeller (who could have delivered New York, Ohio, and several other states for Ford) from the ticket.

[J. J.]

Not pardoning Nixon.

I think that was his worst decision in office, and I am critical of it to this day.

Some other things he could have done:

A.  Emphasized his own strong personal religious beliefs, like Carter.

B.  Emphasized his role as an "inflation fighter." 

Of these two, either could have made a difference.

[minionofmidas]

Ford lost by little, and thus presumably had a path to victory with just some minor detail changes to history.
OTOH it's pretty clear he already did better than he "ought to have", and that during the campaign more things went right for him, and/or he did more things right, than Carter.

[Bo]

Anyone think that keeping Rockefeller would have allowed Ford to win?

[DS0816]

Anyone think that keeping Rockefeller would have allowed Ford to win?

I think the only vice presidential selection made a real difference was John F. Kennedy having on the 1960 Democratic ticket Lyndon Johnson.

It's rare that a v.p. makes that much of a difference; and we've seen plenty of v.p.'s not bring their home state in the general election: 1984 Geraldine Ferraro (D-New York); 1988 Lloyd Bensten (D-Texas); 1996 Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.); 2004 John Edwards (D-North Carolina).

[J. J.]

Anyone think that keeping Rockefeller would have allowed Ford to win?

No.  The right, which largely came around to "The fool you know," would never have.

Dole, while he didn't hurt with the right, never helped with the center.

I disagree with DS.  Lieberman can within about 300 votes of giving 2000 to Gore.  It would have been over by midnight without him.  It even helped a bit in PA.

[DS0816]

Despite his advantages, Carter was certainly beatable in 1976. Even a 1% swing in favor of Ford would have allowed him to win. Ford screwed up by making that “Poland” gaffe, by not criticizng Carter’s inexperience enough, by not talking enough about the economic recovery, and by dropping Rockefeller (who could have delivered New York, Ohio, and several other states for Ford) from the ticket.

The swing was away from the incumbent White House party. (All 50 states and District of Coumbia shifted Democratic in the 1972/1976 votes.) Election 1976 was the first since 1968 in which the incumbent had an approval rating less than 45 percent. Not once since WWII has a president’s party been able to hold the White House under those circumstances. (See ABC News video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EBR84wPMrg. This is applicable to Elections 1952, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2008.)

With Lyndon Johnson (D-Texas) beating an unviable Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) by 22.58 points in 1964, Richard Nixon (R-California) shifted the 1964/1968 popular vote by 23.28 points. That gave him victory in Election 1968 by under a full percent [.7 points] over Hubert Humphrey (D-Minnesota). That also dealt in Humphrey losing 31 of the 44 states carried by LBJ. When Nixon knocked off an unviable George McGovern (D-South Dakota) by 23.15 points, Jimmy Carter (D-Georgia) unseated Gerald Ford (R-Michigan) by making up for that deficit with a 25.21 shift—and flipping 22 states (won by 1972 Nixon) in the process—for a win of the popular vote by 2.06 points.

I bring this up because the country was moving decisively away from incumbent White House parties, in both 1968 and 1976, and to mention some flimsy, theoretical swing going back to the incumbent White House party is fruitless.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ben, pardoning Nixon was one of the best things that Ford did. It may in fact be one of the smartest decisions a President has ever made. I think that many of the american people knew that too, but they just had such great hatred for Nixon at that time that they could not quite swallow it.

I think that Ford would have won if it were not for that gaffe that he made in the foreign policy debate.

I think if Ford did not pardon Nixon, he would have lost by a larger margin since Nixon would have been sued and likely found guilty and put in jail, which would damage all Republicans nationwide (including Ford) due to guilt by association. This damage might have been much worse than the damage Ford received when he pardoned Nixon, since many people would have been disgusted at a former President for going to jail and would have severely blamed the Republicans for nominating this crook (Nixon) for President three times. Also, you got to remember that the economy was in poor shape in 1976. Unemployment stagnated at about 8% the entire year, and inflation was also kinda high at 5%.

I agree with both of you

[Dr. Cynic]

The Poland comment did Ford in.

[Bo]

The Poland comment did Ford in.

Do you think Ford would have won without that gaffe?

[Bo]

The Poland comment did Ford in.

Do you think Ford would have won without that gaffe?

yes

So you're saying that gaffe mattered a lot to 1-2% of the population?

[Bo]

The Poland comment did Ford in.

Do you think Ford would have won without that gaffe?

yes

So you're saying that gaffe mattered a lot to 1-2% of the population?

It put him of the defensive for long enough to let Carter take the election narrowly. But, I am saying that he would win the electoral vote but not the popular vote. It would not have taken much more to flip Ohio and Hawaii for Ford, which I think that would give Ford the election.

It would give Ford the election if that one Reagan elector would vote for Ford like he was supposed to. I guess he would vote for Ford if the outcome of the election depended on it, as there would be a huge amount of backlash if he didn't. That elector voted for Reagan in RL knowing that his EV was irrelevant.

[DS0816]

… It would not have taken much more to flip Ohio and Hawaii for Ford, which I think that would give Ford the election.

In Election 1976, it was Jimmy Carter [D-Georgia] who did the flipping of leading bellwether Ohio and core Democratic Hawaii (which, in 1972, voted for the GOP, specifically 37th president Richard Nixon of California, for the first time in the state's history). It was Ford who was on defense. (Ford couldn't flip states that carried for his own party in the previous presidential election.)

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Wait to pardon Nixon til after election day

[Bo]

Wait to pardon Nixon til after election day

By that time, Nixon would have likely been in jail, and that would have possibly hurt Ford even more than the pardon. What makes you think that Ford would have won without pardoning Nixon? The economy was in poor shape in 1976 and having a former President put in jail would have tarnished all Republicans due to guilt by association.

[DS0816]

… It would not have taken much more to flip Ohio and Hawaii for Ford, which I think that would give Ford the election.

In Election 1976, it was Jimmy Carter [D-Georgia] who did the flipping of leading bellwether Ohio and core Democratic Hawaii (which, in 1972, voted for the GOP, specifically 37th president Richard Nixon of California, for the first time in the state's history). It was Ford who was on defense. (Ford couldn't flip states that carried for his own party in the previous presidential election.)

what I meant was flipping them from Carter to Ford.

There's a difference between flipping and retaining.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The Poland comment did Ford in.

I think this was just a honest mistake and I believe Ford that he really mean "we don't recongize domination" or "Polish people are not dominated in their hearts", but this was horribly costly gaffe.

[sg0508]

Put Nelson Rockefeller on the ticket.  While most don't vote for VP, Dole really added nothing.  Dole may have helped him to hold states like the Dakotas, but Carter's moderate stances hurt Ford in NY, PA and WI.  With Rockefeller on the ticket, maybe Ford steals those?

[Psychic Octopus]

Ford was one of the greatest people ever. Honest, diligent, hardworking...

We really need more people like him.

[Jensen]

Ford's loss caused many of today's problems. For one, Bush Jr. never would have became President.